Box score SIU

#26

37620VOL

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#26
What are y'alls thoughts on foul trouble? I strongly believe that the conventional wisdom of sitting players is dead wrong. I think you should implement your most effective substitution patterns regardless of your players being in foul trouble. If they foul out, they foul out and at least you got as many minutes as you could you of them. On the other hand look at Key last night, picked up 3 fouls before she was able to log 5 minutes in the game (2 early in the first half and 1 early in the second half), then she plays the whole 4th quarter without a foul. I think this author explains it best:

Is the rule of thumb reasonable? No! First let’s consider a simple baseline model: Suppose I simply want to maximize the number of minutes my star player is in the game. When should I risk putting him back in the game after his nth foul? It’s a trick question: I shouldn’t bench him at all! Those of you who haven’t been brainwashed by the conventional wisdom on “foul trouble” probably find this obvious. The proof is simple: if he sits, the only thing that has changed when he gets back in is that there is less time left in the game, so his expected minutes have clearly gone down. In fact, the new distribution on minutes is first-order stochastically dominated, being just a truncation of the alternative. This assumes only that his likelihood of getting a foul is time-invariant, which seems reasonable. [...]
Conventional wisdom seems to regard foul management as a risk vs. safety decision. You will constantly hear something like, “a big decision here, whether to risk putting Duncan back in with 4 fouls.” This is completely the wrong lens for the problem, since the “risky”* strategy is, with the caveats mentioned, all upside! Coaches dramatically underrate the “risk” of falling behind, or losing a lead, by sitting a star for too long. To make it as stark as possible, observe that the coach is voluntarily imposing the penalty that he is trying to avoid, namely his player being taken out of the game!
Foul trouble
 
#28

madtownvol

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#28
What are y'alls thoughts on foul trouble? I strongly believe that the conventional wisdom of sitting players is dead wrong. I think you should implement your most effective substitution patterns regardless of your players being in foul trouble. If they foul out, they foul out and at least you got as many minutes as you could you of them. On the other hand look at Key last night, picked up 3 fouls before she was able to log 5 minutes in the game (2 early in the first half and 1 early in the second half), then she plays the whole 4th quarter without a foul. I think this author explains it best:
Foul trouble

There are situations where sport analytics misses some intangibles. Let's say star player picks up 2 fouls in the first quarter. If he/she stays in the game, it may be that the player is cautious, plays softer defense to avoid a cheap foul or is more hesitant to crash the boards or drive the lane. So, the better option might to have the sub take those minutes. Starting the 2nd half with 2 fouls is not quite as intimidating, but that of course changes with foul 3.

I would like analytics to break down this cliche that a wide open three taken early in the shot clock is an inherently bad shot that should never be taken whereas the exact same open shot late in the clock is a "great look". The critical issue is not when the shot becomes available but who takes it. If Steph Curry is wide open in his spot (which is just about anywhere on the court actually) that is a good shot, regardless of how much time is on the shot clock.
 
#30

Volfaninfl2

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#30
What are y'alls thoughts on foul trouble? I strongly believe that the conventional wisdom of sitting players is dead wrong. I think you should implement your most effective substitution patterns regardless of your players being in foul trouble. If they foul out, they foul out and at least you got as many minutes as you could you of them. On the other hand look at Key last night, picked up 3 fouls before she was able to log 5 minutes in the game (2 early in the first half and 1 early in the second half), then she plays the whole 4th quarter without a foul. I think this author explains it best:




Foul trouble
As far as the amount of minutes played by a player in foul trouble, if they stay in the third quarter but foul out, you could say that’s all the minutes they could get. The difference is will they play with the same amount of urgency in the third quarter, as in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter with the game on the line. We needed Tamari at the end of this game, and she came through for everyone. I’m glad she was held out and available when we needed her most, so I agree with Kellie’s decision.

GO LADY VOLS!
 
#31

37620VOL

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#31
I would like analytics to break down this cliche that a wide open three taken early in the shot clock is an inherently bad shot that should never be taken whereas the exact same open shot late in the clock is a "great look". The critical issue is not when the shot becomes available but who takes it. If Steph Curry is wide open in his spot (which is just about anywhere on the court actually) that is a good shot, regardless of how much time is on the shot clock.
You're spot on. The only time to pass on a good open shot is if you are ahead and trying to eat up the clock or if you are trying to prevent the opponent from getting a 2for1 at the end of a quarter. (ie if you take possession with 55 seconds you wouldn't want to take anything but a layup until the game clock is down to about 40 seconds, giving you the final possession instead of your opponent)
 
#32

37620VOL

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#32
As far as the amount of minutes played by a player in foul trouble, if they stay in the third quarter but foul out, you could say that’s all the minutes they could get. The difference is will they play with the same amount of urgency in the third quarter, as in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter with the game on the line. We needed Tamari at the end of this game, and she came through for everyone. I’m glad she was held out and available when we needed her most, so I agree with Kellie’s decision.

GO LADY VOLS!
We'll never know but what if she would have been able to play 30 minutes and fouls out with 2 minutes left? With her +/- we win the game by 20 and the last 2 minutes aren't even in doubt. I realize conventional wisdom goes the other way but I like to be the contrarian when the stats support me. More and more sports are doing the same ... look at how the Braves won in the postseason with their bullpen (pulled a guy with a no-hitter going) ... look at all the football teams going for it on fourth down instead of punting or kicking FGs. I like it!
 
#34

Darth_Vol

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#34
So did you watch the game, what are your thoughts on it? We're you impressed with anyone's play or dismayed by anyone or anything?
I liked how Burrell looked like an All-American before her injury. I like how Dye rebounds the ball, and how she kept them in the game until they could pull away with Key in the 4th. I liked Miles' defense. I liked how turnovers are down. Most importantly, I liked that they managed to win the game.

Aside from that, there wasn't a lot to feel good about, especially if their best player is already lost...
 
#35

youcancallmeAl

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#35
I liked how Burrell looked like an All-American before her injury. I like how Dye rebounds the ball, and how she kept them in the game until they could pull away with Key in the 4th. I liked Miles' defense. I liked how turnovers are down. Most importantly, I liked that they managed to win the game.

Aside from that, there wasn't a lot to feel good about, especially if their best player is already lost...
1-0
 
#36
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#36
I liked how Burrell looked like an All-American before her injury. I like how Dye rebounds the ball, and how she kept them in the game until they could pull away with Key in the 4th. I liked Miles' defense. I liked how turnovers are down. Most importantly, I liked that they managed to win the game.

Aside from that, there wasn't a lot to feel good about, especially if their best player is already lost...
I was most impressed with Dye, I expected Rae to be good and am worried about her.( I've been at work all day haven't heard anything) I was disappointed in some of our Freshman but hope it was jitters. Tess is a big? Hopefully it was just jitters as well. I'm about to sit down and watch how we do tonight.
 

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