Mid-majors are 3-0 in BCS bowls against BCS conference teams.
2004: Utah beat the living crap out of Pitt (35-7). Pitt was pretty weak for a Big East champion, but you certainly can't hold a 28 point victory against Utah.
2006: Boise beats Oklahoma in possibly the greatest college football game ever played. Don't underestimate that Oklahoma team. They were a BS call in that Oregon game (they would have indisputably won if it was called correctly) away from going 12-1, and they might have made it to the national championship.
2008: Utah humiliated Saban's Alabama team. If they weren't focused that's their fault.
But that's just a three game sample. We can't project how they'd do in a BCS conference, but we can try. Take the big four mid-majors this decade (BSU, BYU, TCU, Utah) in years when they lost two or fewer games (against non-BCS teams) and were truly elite. How did they fare against BCS teams?
2000: TCU (10-2) 41 Northwestern (8-4) 14
2001: BYU (12-2) 44 California (1-10) 6
2001: BYU (12-2) 41 Mississippi State (3-8) 38
2002: Boise State (12-1) 14 Arkansas (9-5) 41
2002: Boise State (12-1) 34 Iowa State (7-7) 16
2002: TCU (10-2) 48 Northwestern (3-9) 24
2003: Boise State (13-1) 24 Oregon State (8-5) 26
2003: TCU (11-2) 30 Vanderbilt (2-10) 14
2003: TCU (11-2) 13 Arizona (2-10) 10
2003: Utah (10-2) 26 Texas A&M (4-8) 28
2003: Utah (10-2) 31 California (8-6) 24
2003: Utah (10-2) 17 Oregon (8-5) 13
2004: Boise State (11-1) 53 Oregon State (8-5) 34
2004: Utah (12-0) 41 Texas A&M (7-5) 21
2004: Utah (12-0) 23 Arizona (3-8) 6
2004: Utah (12-0) 46 UNC (6-6) 16
2004: Utah (12-0) 35 Pittsburgh (8-4) 7
2005: Boise State (9-4) 13 Georgia (10-3) 48
2005: Boise State (9-4) 27 Oregon State (5-6) 30
2005: Boise State (9-4) 21 Boston College (9-3) 27
2005: TCU (11-1) 17 Oklahoma (8-4) 10
2005: TCU (11-1) 27 Iowa State (7-5) 24
2006: Boise State (13-0) 42 Oregon State (10-4) 14
2006: Boise State (13-0) 43 Oklahoma (11-3) 42
2006: BYU (11-2) 13 Arizona (6-6) 16
2006: BYU (11-2) 23 Boston College (10-3) 30
2006: BYU (11-2) 38 Oregon (7-6) 8
2006: TCU (11-2) 17 Baylor (4-8) 7
2006: TCU (11-2) 12 Texas Tech (8-5) 3 (a 12-3 game involving Texas Tech?)
2007: Boise State (10-3) 10 Washington (4-9) 24
2007: BYU (11-2) 20 Arizona (5-7) 7
2007: BYU (11-2) 17 UCLA (6-7) 27
2007: BYU (11-2) 17 UCLA (6-7) 16
2008: Boise State (12-1) 37 Oregon (10-3) 32
2008: BYU (10-3) 28 Washington (0-12) 27
2008: BYU (10-3) 59 UCLA (4-8) 0
2008: BYU (10-3) 21 Arizona (8-5) 31
2008: TCU (11-2) 31 Stanford (5-7) 14
2008: TCU (11-2) 10 Oklahoma (12-2) 35
2008: Utah (13-0) 25 Michigan (3-9) 23
2008: Utah (13-0) 31 Oregon State (9-4) 28
2008: Utah (13-0) 31 Alabama (12-2) 17
2009: Boise State (14-0) 19 Oregon (10-3) 8
2009: BYU (11-2) 14 Oklahoma (8-5) 13
2009: BYU (11-2) 28 Florida State (7-6) 54
2009: BYU (11-2) 44 Oregon State (8-5) 20
2009: TCU (12-1) 30 Virginia (3-9) 14
2009: TCU (12-1) 14 Clemson (9-5) 10
2009: Utah (10-3) 24 Oregon (10-3) 31
2009: Utah (10-3) 30 Louisville (4-8) 14
2009: Utah (10-3) 37 California (8-5) 27
Overall Record: 37-14
Record vs 0-5 win teams: 14-3
Record vs 6-9 win teams: 18-7
Record vs 10+ win teams: 5-4
Boise State record (overall, 0-5, 6-9, 10+): 6-6, 0-2, 2-3, 4-1 (not including VT)
BYU: 9-5, 5-0, 3-3, 1-2
TCU: 11-1, 6-0, 5-0, 0-1
Utah: 11-2, 3-1, 7-1, 1-0
What does this tell us?
Boise State is a difficult read. Their 0-2 record against losing teams and 4-1 record against double digit winners is baffling. It does directly correlate with their best and worst qualifying seasons. In 2005 and 2007, down years, they were 0-4. When they were developing earlier in the decade they went 2-2. In their best seasons, they were 4-0 and all of the wins were against 10+ win teams. If VT wins ten, they'll be 5-0. The fact that this is going three years strong now (plus 2006) tells me they're better now than ever before. So should they go to the title game if they go undefeated? Eh...let's look at the situation three months from now.
BYU is clearly the worst of the bunch and has never had a dominant team.
Utah and TCU are legit. They're a combined 13-2 against bowl teams from the BCS. Utah probably deserved a shot at the title in 2008, at least in a plus one after the bowl games. TCU would have deserved it if two undefeated BCS teams weren't in the way. The MWC's winning record against BCS teams in recent years is a testament to their strength as a conference. If TCU goes undefeated this year, they very much deserve title game consideration.