Well, what surprises me is the notion that an 11-2, Florida (assuming a loss in the title game), or an 11-1 Tennessee (wouldn't you by then be in the top five in BCS standings?), would be in the Capital One Bowl.
Only explanation I can think of is that theyare basing in on their own projection of final "SEC rank," leaving out the possibility that you could for example be #3 in the SEC with an 11-1 record. Or, in Florida's case, that it could be 11-1 and lose the SECCG and then probably still be a potential BCS team, depending on what else happens.
For my thinking, obviously either OSU or Michigan is probably in the title game after their match-up on 11/18. USC has been living on the edge, a la Florida, and are due to lose once, maybe twice and they will plummet. W Va. and Louisville, well, one will survive their match-up and it is sadly a real possibility that whoever does may get to the national title game (but either or both could lose somewhere along the way).
The winner of the SEC title game still has a decent shot if they otherwise run the table.
i posted in another thread earlier some scenarios that could result in what you are talking about. the SEC champ will likely need some help to get in to the NT game, no matter what. and the biggest form of help could come from USC losing. to anyone. and Cal losing again. Insurance would come from WVU or L'ville losing an additional game besides their head to head. TX is the biggest concern, cause i don't see them losing another game.
But from a strength of schedule standpoint...there are legitimately 4 teams in the SEC with shots at the NT game...and here's how i think it benefits for each:
Florida...win out and play a 1 loss Auburn team likely in the top 5. But even if it were Ark, say they were only a 1 loss top ten, that wouldn't hurt them either. FL still has the best chance of getting in to the NT game imo.
Auburn...win out, and play a one loss top 5 or 10 TN. they've already beaten FL, so how much credit do you get for beating a team twice, thus decreasing your schedule strength? Though the rankings have them at 4 right now, they don't control their own destiny. ARK owns the tie breaker, and as Auburn keeps winning, it helps their sos....
ARK...win out and play a one loss FL team...that would give them wins against all the big boys...FL, TN, Aub and LSU....wow wouldn't that be something? Playing TN again wouldn't help them as much...same thing for Auburn playing FL again...how much credit do you get for beating a team twice?
TN...win out and play a one loss Auburn team. this is the biggest long shot of them all in my opinion. Mainly because we could still win out and not play in the SEC Title game, which would help UF's sos in scenario 1.
what will happen: Auburn and FL play each other again, and FL goes to the sugar bowl.
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