Bill Connelly's advanced statistics based preview for Tennessee

#2
#2
A couple of key statements...

Tennessee has a tantalizing combination of production and upside, and while the schedule probably features too many obstacles, it's not hard to see the Vols topping seven wins for the first time since 2007.

Offseason perceptions matter more than they should. A top-30 performance in 2015, which would be accompanied by about eight wins or so, would represent another step forward for Jones. But if we set the bar higher than that and make improvement seem disappointing, that's unfair.

...that those saying 'anything less than 10-2 represents failure' should pay heed to.
 
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#3
#3
Crazy Ivan said:
A couple of key statements...

Tennessee has a tantalizing combination of production and upside, and while the schedule probably features too many obstacles, it's not hard to see the Vols topping seven wins for the first time since 2007.

Offseason perceptions matter more than they should. A top-30 performance in 2015, which would be accompanied by about eight wins or so, would represent another step forward for Jones. But if we set the bar higher than that and make improvement seem disappointing, that's unfair.

...that those saying 'anything less than 10-2 represents failure' should pay heed to.
Click to expand...

Agreed. Still have a long way to go.
 
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#4
#4
this read isn't too far off from other prognosticators, just the stats are a little dazzling.

i don't know how much more this all needs to be rehashed, but whether it's this article or the pump the brakes article, or SEC network predicting SEC E winner or what have you, i think our 2015 outlook can be summed up with:

pcs are in place, barring injuries at key spots, to see Tennessee make some noise in the SEC East. the schedule is somewhat manageable with some big games at home, but some obvious challenges, and 1 big hurdle to get over, on the road. Yet for 2015, the question that has to be answered is can the youthful talent develop fast enough to get TN to more than 7-8 wins? Is the offensive line improved enough to compete with the defensive fronts it will face early and often? if those answers are yes, it could be a very good year on Rocky Top. if not, they can still eek out 7-8 wins, and continue on their upward trend for team 120 and beyond.
 
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#6
#6
And for today's sobering statistic: UT has not won more than 7 games since 2007. Vandy has done it twice.
 
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#7
#7
I like an article that has been researched and thought out before it is posted to the world.
 
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#8
#8
This was really good. Advanced football stats are the hardest in sports to work with but I like the reasoning with those stats and acknowledgement of outside forces
 
#10
#10
fade route said:
And for today's sobering statistic: UT has not won more than 7 games since 2007. Vandy has done it twice.
Click to expand...

Well I certainly hope that brings Vanderbilt some comfort in the years ahead. They can reminisce with the rest of them about how great things were when Tennessee sucked. Perhaps it will ease the pain.
 
#13
#13
#14
#14
"Dobbs isn't and incredible playmaker, but he's mature for his experience level and has shown he can manage a game pretty well and make plays when he needs to (just ask South Carolina)."

What's this kid got to do to prove that he's more of a playmaker than most thought he was?
He kept mentioning Vandy and that goes against his above point. Against Vandy our offense was Joshua Dobbs. Hurd was out most of the game, no WRs, and that OLine last year wasn't very capable.

Last time I checked carrying your team to wins makes you a playmaker, but that's just me.
 
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#17
#17
Sobering statistics at end of article: 46% chance of 7 or fewer wins, only 25% chance of 9 or more. 8 win season the most likely outcome.
 
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#18
#18
I vote underrated. We bout to open a can of our own in the sec!
 
#20
#20
So the Over-Hype may be Under-Hyped......I think he might be Hyper! :blink:


Although, when was the last time we heard this phrase?

"A Deep Well Rounded Defensive Front" :dance2::dance2:




.
 
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#24
#24
DL916 said:
"Dobbs isn't and incredible playmaker, but he's mature for his experience level and has shown he can manage a game pretty well and make plays when he needs to (just ask South Carolina)."

What's this kid got to do to prove that he's more of a playmaker than most thought he was?
He kept mentioning Vandy and that goes against his above point. Against Vandy our offense was Joshua Dobbs. Hurd was out most of the game, no WRs, and that OLine last year wasn't very capable.

Last time I checked carrying your team to wins makes you a playmaker, but that's just me.
Click to expand...

Totally agree. Dobbs has established himself as an explosive playmaker. I mean facts are facts, without him last season, we lose to SC, UK and most likely Vandy. Those who say that he is not a playmaker are either haters or just foolish. If you had a negative critique of Dobbs it would be his deep ball accuracy, which he still needs work on. Outside of that, I think Dobbs has the skills to become an elite level QB.

Cue the Rodney Dangerfield no respect.
 
#25
#25
fade route said:
And for today's sobering statistic: UT has not won more than 7 games since 2007. Vandy has done it twice.
Click to expand...

Guess we should've played Temple last year instead of Oklahoma to get that eighth win. This is why you can't just look at W's and L's.
 
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