betting question and bama defense

[voluntildeath]

thought i would roll both questions in one thread. i dont gamble but do watch the lines. am i the only one that feels like if bama were playing a&m this week the line would be more like -6,-7 bama? if so, i think we match up the same as a&m. why the 13-14 line on this game? any chance vegas put this as an erroneous line to discourage betting this game and focus on others? also, why all the talk of this being bamas greatest defense ever? i know they are good, but last years team held power 5 to 15-16 points a game. so far this year, power 5 is averaging 22 ppg. thanks for any insight

BEATBAMA

 

[Vol_til_I_die]

If memory serves me correctly, Vegas opened up at -8. The money placed on Bama is what is pushing the line.

 

[Bizzness33]

If memory serves me correctly, Vegas opened up at -8. The money placed on Bama is what is pushing the line.

This

And remember lines are set to create equal betting on both sides.

 

[JettVol]

I would think the line is growing in Bama's favor due to the injuries that we have seen on Tennessee side.

 

[Vol_til_I_die]

I would think the line is growing in Bama's favor due to the injuries that we have seen on Tennessee side.

In a sense, yes. Obviously that factors in to the way bettors bet. Hence, more money being put on Bama.

 

[08Vol]

Things Vegas may have considered when setting this line compared to the Bama aTm line (which is speculation).

Sumlin has beaten Saban, Butch hasn't.
Knight has beaten Bama, Dobbs hasn't.

Bama's D gives up a lot of yards but they also score a lot off of turnovers(lead the nation I think). UT is a turnover prone team. Combine those together and it isn't pretty.

Lots of injuries on UT's 2 deep including 3 all SEC players on defense (DK Jr is a game time decision) and 2 OL starters compared to only a couple on Bama's 2 deep.

Off the field distractions in Knoxville when a senior DT gets kicked off the team following a scary injury and a 5* WR quit in the same week.

Questions about Hurd and Kamara's role after Kamara put up 300 yards. Does Kamara go back to 5-8 touches on offense if Hurd starts.

UT playing undisciplined football all season. Drops, fumbles, ints, and stupid personal fouls (2 players ejected on special teams along with other personal fouls on special teams) have hindered this team and show no signs of getting better in one week.

 

[peppervol]

I would think the line is growing in Bama's favor due to the injuries that we have seen on Tennessee side.

Our injuries have already affected the initial betting line. See Vol til I die's above post. The huge amount of early money on Alabama is what's moving the line this much. Personally, I'm holding off until Sat. AM in hopes that I can get our Vols at +17 1/2 to +19 or 20. It takes a ton of money to move a line 5 or 6 points in one direction like this one has.

 

[05_never_again]

This

And remember lines are set to create equal betting on both sides.

Yep.

Not picking on anybody here but always remember that a point spread is not a prediction by Vegas on the outcome of the game. You can certainly use it as a proxy for that, but that is not what a point spread means.

It is simply a mechanism to create equal action on an "unequal" (i.e., one team has a better chance of winning than the other) event. Sports betting in general and line movements in particular make much more sense when you think of it in those terms.

 

[Jax_Vol]

However, Nick is having a rough week at practice, so we got that going for us......which is nice!

 

[NWGVol]

Our injuries have already affected the initial betting line. See Vol til I die's above post. The huge amount of early money on Alabama is what's moving the line this much. Personally, I'm holding off until Sat. AM in hopes that I can get our Vols at +17 1/2 to +19 or 20. It takes a ton of money to move a line 5 or 6 points in one direction like this one has.

Where have you seen the line move 5 or 6 points? I've seen this posted in multiple threads but I've yet to see any online gambling site or sports book where the line moved more than 3 points.

As a matter of fact, Harrahs sports book line opened at 11.5, went to 13 quickly, then has bounced back and forth from 12.5 to 13 in the last couple of days.


It seems like folks are looking at the lowest line it opened at one site or sports book, then using a different site or sports book for the highest line it's been at. That's not the way it works if you're trying to determine the movement of the line.

I'm not saying the line won't continue to go up closer to game time, but as of now, I've yet to find anywhere where it has moved 5 or 6 points. If you have seen it, please let me know where.

 

[peppervol]

Where have you seen the line move 5 or 6 points? I've seen this posted in multiple threads but I've yet to see any online gambling site or sports book where the line moved more than 3 points.

As a matter of fact, Harrahs sports book line opened at 11.5, went to 13 quickly, then has bounced back and forth from 12.5 to 13 in the last couple of days.


It seems like folks are looking at the lowest line it opened at one site or sports book, then using a different site or sports book for the highest line it's been at. That's not the way it works if you're trying to determine the movement of the line.

I'm not saying the line won't continue to go up closer to game time, but as of now, I've yet to find anywhere where it has moved 5 or 6 points. If you have seen it, please let me know where.

I think the opening Vegas line was Alabama favored by
8-8 1/2. BTW, not trying to say I know more than the next guy, but, I've been betting on college football for 51 years now. I know how it works. One of my old girlfriend's Dad was the biggest bookie in this county. I won some; I lost some. GO VOLS!!!