Be careful what you wish for, GOP

#76
#76
volinbham said:
It's about trust rather than like and we are at pretty historic lows in trust/faith in the government. Ironic since this erosion has happened under the auspices of the candidate who promoted the government as problem solver more than any other candidate in recent memory. Cynicism about the government and other major institutions is historically high.

That's my point. It's not about demographic trends - it's about confidence in a party to show some kind of positive leadership. Right now Team Obama and the dems have taken the disappointment the company felt with Team Bush and doubled down.

So one can look to the future and seeing a changing demographic and think it portends some insurmountable advantage for one party but that simply isn't the case.
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You say Obama has doubled down on Bush but he is actually polling better than Bush was going Into the '06 elections slightly but better still also the republicans in congress fair worse polling than the dems in congress like I've said before I do not think the dems losing the Senate would be all that bad cause I think it will help them in the 2016 elections depending on how a hop congress is viewed.
 
#77
#77
hog88 said:
And what demographic makes up the dwindling Republican base?
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Lindsay Graham made a joke this week at a North Carolina men's club about how clubs with just white men in it would do well in his presidency. He was kidding, I'm not making a big deal out of the joke, itself. But the reason he can kid about that is because he's in a club, of all white men. And its a bit of gallows humor.

The country used to look like that. At least, that was who was in charge of everything.

US-Population-by-Race-Ethnicity.png
 
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#78
#78
lawgator1 said:
I don't think I ever said that the GOP wouldn't win local, or statewide races, certainly not lose in their safe haven states.

But ....


REPUBLICANS HAVE LOST THE POPULAR VOTE IN FIVE OF THE LAST SIX PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.

They haven't had 300 electoral votes in almost three decades. Think about that. Why is that?

Alienation of every growing demographic. That isn't politics. That's fact.
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Attributable to the growing class of moochers and low information voters.. The Cretans are breeding like ****ing rabbits.
 
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#82
#82
lawgator1 said:
Lindsay Graham made a joke this week at a North Carolina men's club about how clubs with just white men in it would do well in his presidency. He was kidding, I'm not making a big deal out of the joke, itself. But the reason he can kid about that is because he's in a club, of all white men. And its a bit of gallows humor.

The country used to look like that. At least, that was who was in charge of everything.

US-Population-by-Race-Ethnicity.png
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I don't totally disagree with you. Guys like Lindsey Graham, John McCain and Lamar Alexander turn me away from the Republican party.

Where I disagree with you is that you assume people of color are incapable of being financially or even somewhat socially conservative. This is where the Rs are losing, they are not differentiating themselves from the Dems. Turning off their base and not giving others a true alternative.
 
#83
#83
hog88 said:
I don't totally disagree with you. Guys like Lindsey Graham, John McCain and Lamar Alexander turn me away from the Republican party.

Where I disagree with you is that you assume people of color are incapable of being financially or even somewhat socially conservative. This is where the Rs are losing, they are not differentiating themselves from the Dems. Turning off their base and not giving others a true alternative.
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Who are some of the politicians that you do like we get you do not like the so called Rino's your all's term not mine so who do you like Cruz, Paul cause I can tell you I'd be shocked if either one of those ever got the gop nod for president.
 
#84
#84
hog88 said:
I don't totally disagree with you. Guys like Lindsey Graham, John McCain and Lamar Alexander turn me away from the Republican party.

Where I disagree with you is that you assume people of color are incapable of being financially or even somewhat socially conservative. This is where the Rs are losing, they are not differentiating themselves from the Dems. Turning off their base and not giving others a true alternative.
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Of course they can. And in fact studies show some categories of Hispanics are social conservatives. They could be effectively courted.

But look at the ferociousness of the reaction to Jeb or Rubio when they suggest leniency when it comes to illegal immigration. They are blasted by Hannity, O'Reilly, Coulter, Palin, Limbaugh, and on and on.

The sense I get is that the Hispanic community doesn't vote FOR Dems nearly as much as they are voting AGAINST Republicans. I don't see how that changes in our lifetimes.
 
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#85
#85
DAVOL said:
Who are some of the politicians that you do like we get you do not like the so called Rino's your all's term not mine so who do you like Cruz, Paul cause I can tell you I'd be shocked if either one of those ever got the gop nod for president.
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Don't care for Cruz, he doesn't turn my stomach like McCain and Graham does but not a big fan. I'm warming up to R. Paul, and Amash (thanks Pj). Rubio has some possibilities along with WI's Walker and Ryan.

As of right now I don't have a favorite. I do however have several I despise.
 
#86
#86
lawgator1 said:
Of course they can. And in fact studies show some categories of Hispanics are social conservatives. They could be effectively courted.

But look at the ferociousness of the reaction to Jeb or Rubio when they suggest leniency when it comes to illegal immigration. They are blasted by Hannity, O'Reilly, Coulter, Palin, Limbaugh, and on and on.

The sense I get is that the Hispanic community doesn't vote FOR Dems nearly as much as they are voting AGAINST Republicans. I don't see how that changes in our lifetimes.
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The Hispanic vote doesn't matter as much as you think it does on a national scale. Every eligible Hispanic in NY and CA could vote R and it wouldn't swing either state, FL is the only real impact state.
 
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#87
#87
hog88 said:
The Hispanic vote doesn't matter as much as you think it does on a national scale. Every eligible Hispanic in NY and CA could vote R and it wouldn't swing either state, FL is the only real impact state.
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Oh, I could not disagree with you more.

California, Nevada, Colorado, New York, New Jersey, Florida. And I'm also talking about the future, not just right now.
 
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#88
#88
lawgator1 said:
Oh, I could not disagree with you more.

California, Nevada, Colorado, New York, New Jersey, Florida. And I'm also talking about the future, not just right now.
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I'm thinking Arizona by 2028 election could be interesting if the dems continue to do well with the hispanics maybe even 2024.
 
#89
#89
lawgator1 said:
Oh, I could not disagree with you more.

California, Nevada, Colorado, New York, New Jersey, Florida. And I'm also talking about the future, not just right now.
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California 32% Hispanic 2012 59% Obama 38% Romney
Nevada 17% Hispanic 2012 52% Obama 42% Romney
Colorado 17% Hispanic 2012 51% Obama 47% Romney
New York 15% Hispanic 2012 63% Obama 36% Romney
New Jersey 13% Hispanic 2012 58% Obama 41% Romney
Florida 17% Hispanic 2012 50% Obama 49% Romney

Ok I'll admit my statement about if every eligible Hispanic voted R it wouldn't have made a difference was wrong (maybe, I did say eligible). But what looks to me the most important vote in states like NV, CO and FL for a R candidate the disgruntled white woman.
 
#90
#90
hog88 said:
Don't care for Cruz, he doesn't turn my stomach like McCain and Graham does but not a big fan. I'm warming up to R. Paul, and Amash (thanks Pj). Rubio has some possibilities along with WI's Walker and Ryan.

As of right now I don't have a favorite. I do however have several I despise.
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What do you think of Rand Paul saying the Republican Party brand sucks yesterday?
 
#92
#92
hog88 said:
I'd say he's close to correct. Correct statement would be to say the Party leadership sucks.
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Agree but if he said the leadership sucks it would be considered a personal attack, by using the word brand he got his point across while covering his azz a little.

I think Paul's stock is rising. This statement could backfire on him somewhat as far as winning the GOP nomination. Some may look at him and wonder why he would want to be the nominee of a party he says sucks. Time will tell.
 
#93
#93
Gramps said:
Agree but if he said the leadership sucks it would be considered a personal attack, by using the word brand he got his point across while covering his azz a little.

I think Paul's stock is rising. This statement could backfire on him somewhat as far as winning the GOP nomination. Some may look at him and wonder why he would want to be the nominee of a party he says sucks. Time will tell.
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I'm all for fixing it within, an internal changing of the gaurd. 3rd parties just ensure Dem POTUS's.
 
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#95
#95
DAVOL said:
You say Obama has doubled down on Bush but he is actually polling better than Bush was going Into the '06 elections slightly but better still also the republicans in congress fair worse polling than the dems in congress like I've said before I do not think the dems losing the Senate would be all that bad cause I think it will help them in the 2016 elections depending on how a hop congress is viewed.
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I meant doubled down on sh!tty leadership; not poll numbers.

Obama has done more to destroy faith in government than Bush since Obama's mantra is government is the solution.
 
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#96
#96
lawgator1 said:
I don't think I ever said that the GOP wouldn't win local, or statewide races, certainly not lose in their safe haven states.

But ....


REPUBLICANS HAVE LOST THE POPULAR VOTE IN FIVE OF THE LAST SIX PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.

They haven't had 300 electoral votes in almost three decades. Think about that. Why is that?

Alienation of every growing demographic. That isn't politics. That's fact.
Click to expand...

Damn man - don't make me go back to the archives.

You said they will be the minority party going forward. You predicted this prior to 2010 (and you were wrong) and you predicted it before this year and you may be wrong again if results turn out as expected.

The larger point is that you continue to under estimate how bad Dems are when they are in power.

Given how badly Hillary is on the campaign trail we may see another R in the WH if the R's can find someone half way decent to run.

Young people are fleeing the D party.
The gender gap is shrinking dramatically.
Hispanics were never a block and are leaving the D party
Even AA's are increasingly expressing disillusionment with the D party.

The lesson? It's about how you do the job; not the letter by your name and demographics aren't all they are cracked up to be.
 
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#98
#98
Gramps said:
What do you think of Rand Paul saying the Republican Party brand sucks yesterday?
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He is correct.

He is quietly winning over people not expected to be in the R tent.

The challenge would be making it through the primaries but I even heard Tavis Smiley talking positively about him. He could make a significant dent in the AA vote.

If he makes it to the nomination Hillary should be very worried.
 
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#100
#100
PKT_VOL said:
Let's not act like demographics have nothing to do with with elections either.
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of course they do but they are not perfectly correlated with values, opinions, beliefs.

Hispanics are a perfect example - there is no way to consider that a voting block and they are a consummate swing group.

Likewise, young people across the board have more in common as a result of age compared to other demographics like race. If you look at polling data, young people are all over the place on issues and cannot be defined as favoring either party.

The gender gap is virtually gone and it was entirely determined by single women being predominantly D. If you look at the recent data that advantage is all but gone. Married women have been more R than D in recent elections.

Do not underestimate the disillusionment with the first black president leading to an actual backslide for the AA community. The rumblings are out there - there is increasing recognition that D's have been taking the AA vote for granted.

Finally, we are shifting to a homogenized by experience and interest society and moving away from homogenized by demographic society. Social media and virtual networks are shaping new groups of like minded people. The voting blocks of the future will be increasingly less defined by demographics and more by virtual connections and lifestyle.

If either party thinks they can continue to pander to blocks based on demographics they in for a rude awakening. A perfect example is the "War on Women" which has lost all it's power and will likely cost Udall the election in CO.
 
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