Daloth
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Some of you who know me know I like to do statistics on things. I'm that weirdo who wrote an essay on Derek Barnett in the off season comparing him to all the best D lineman in the country. Well, all of this week so far all I've seen is Garrett vs Barnett hype, and most of the average people choosing Garret. So I decided to do some digging to see if the numbers have changed at all one way or the other. Here's what I've come up with.
Statistically, they're extremely similar. Barnett has an enormous lead in tackles, as I talked about the last time I wrote about Barnett, nobody comes close to him when it comes to DE tackles. Garret has a fair number more of QB hurries, but they also don't translate to a much higher number of deflections, sacks, or anything else caused. And Garret has a much higher turnover cause rate, but Barnett's turnovers cause much more impact on the game immediately.
From a statistical standpoint you have a hard time picking one clearly over the other.
But, this is a huge SEC and nationally relevant game with playoff implications, not the little sisters of the poor. So, I decided to see what both have done in SEC play AND against AP top 25 teams.
This is where suddenly things fly off the rails. Barnett has 10 more TFL against SEC opponents, and 7 more in his top 25 games. Furthermore, Barnett has a mind boggling 91% of his sacks against SEC competition, whereas Garret only has 43% of his, or for a flat number Barnett has 10 more sacks in SEC play than Garret, roughly a full season of sacks for either player. Barnett then also has 35% of his sacks (8) coming in his 10 AP top 25 games, averaging almost 1 a game. Garret has .5 a game exactly (4), or 16%.
Again, Barnett blows him out of the water in solo and total tackles in both categories. In fact, against top 25 opponents, Barnett has as many solo and total tackles as Garret does against the entire SEC in 3 years.
But where Garret leads normally? In QB hurries especially, Barnett overtakes him in the SEC 10-9 and in AP top 25 games they are tied 3 to 3. In turnovers caused, Garret has an interception and fumble against AP top 25 teams, but Barnett's one fumble resulted in 6 points for his defense. In SEC play Garret has 4-1 traditional turnovers caused, but when factoring in the safety it becomes 4-2, and safeties are a bit tricky to score, but I'd wager most coaches would take 1 safety over 2 fumbles any time. One more point to add, all of Garret's turnovers came in the 2015 season. And when I last wrote about D linemen, I made sure to mention that every single one who was "great" had one breakout season in one statistical category, and it usually happened in the 2nd year. It's highly possible, at least based on the numbers, that Garret had his one "great" season last year and it was in turnovers.
Now, none of this is to say Barnett is clearly better than Garret. Garret has a higher ceiling if he plays to the top of his ability athletically, and most have him ranked higher on NFL draft boards because of it. However, when it comes to playing against good and great competition, it isn't even a contest. Barnett is on a whole other level than Garret, so much so you could easily argue that Garret has "padded his stats" against weaker teams.
This isn't to say Garret won't do much Saturday. However, from a statistical/historical standpoint, it won't be much compared to his better brother in the SEC.
Statistically, they're extremely similar. Barnett has an enormous lead in tackles, as I talked about the last time I wrote about Barnett, nobody comes close to him when it comes to DE tackles. Garret has a fair number more of QB hurries, but they also don't translate to a much higher number of deflections, sacks, or anything else caused. And Garret has a much higher turnover cause rate, but Barnett's turnovers cause much more impact on the game immediately.
From a statistical standpoint you have a hard time picking one clearly over the other.
But, this is a huge SEC and nationally relevant game with playoff implications, not the little sisters of the poor. So, I decided to see what both have done in SEC play AND against AP top 25 teams.
This is where suddenly things fly off the rails. Barnett has 10 more TFL against SEC opponents, and 7 more in his top 25 games. Furthermore, Barnett has a mind boggling 91% of his sacks against SEC competition, whereas Garret only has 43% of his, or for a flat number Barnett has 10 more sacks in SEC play than Garret, roughly a full season of sacks for either player. Barnett then also has 35% of his sacks (8) coming in his 10 AP top 25 games, averaging almost 1 a game. Garret has .5 a game exactly (4), or 16%.
Again, Barnett blows him out of the water in solo and total tackles in both categories. In fact, against top 25 opponents, Barnett has as many solo and total tackles as Garret does against the entire SEC in 3 years.
But where Garret leads normally? In QB hurries especially, Barnett overtakes him in the SEC 10-9 and in AP top 25 games they are tied 3 to 3. In turnovers caused, Garret has an interception and fumble against AP top 25 teams, but Barnett's one fumble resulted in 6 points for his defense. In SEC play Garret has 4-1 traditional turnovers caused, but when factoring in the safety it becomes 4-2, and safeties are a bit tricky to score, but I'd wager most coaches would take 1 safety over 2 fumbles any time. One more point to add, all of Garret's turnovers came in the 2015 season. And when I last wrote about D linemen, I made sure to mention that every single one who was "great" had one breakout season in one statistical category, and it usually happened in the 2nd year. It's highly possible, at least based on the numbers, that Garret had his one "great" season last year and it was in turnovers.
Now, none of this is to say Barnett is clearly better than Garret. Garret has a higher ceiling if he plays to the top of his ability athletically, and most have him ranked higher on NFL draft boards because of it. However, when it comes to playing against good and great competition, it isn't even a contest. Barnett is on a whole other level than Garret, so much so you could easily argue that Garret has "padded his stats" against weaker teams.
This isn't to say Garret won't do much Saturday. However, from a statistical/historical standpoint, it won't be much compared to his better brother in the SEC.
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