Barack the Birther

#51
#51
lawgator1 said:
I would hardly describe that as thickening anything.

That guy could come up with proof positive that Obama is from Mars and his credibility is so shot no one would ever believe him.
Click to expand...

I view this as a comedy and not a drama.

Think Inspector Clouseau.

But didn't he always get his man ...
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#52
#52
therealUT said:
I am not an attorney, either, and I could not tell you if birth certificates, of living individuals, can be procured under the FOIA.



I think it is a plausible explanation. The things he wrote in Dreams From My Father are pretty radical; I imagine that he also wrote some pretty radical essays in college and in law school that he does not want to have to defend.
Click to expand...

why does Obama deserve special consideration not afforded to any other President? Mitt Romney has already had to answer for a harmless prank he participated in while in high school. You (in the general sense) can't argue that Romney's academic history is relevant while claiming that Obama's should be kept secret.
 
#53
#53
MG1968 said:
why does Obama deserve special consideration not afforded to any other President? Mitt Romney has already had to answer for a harmless prank he participated in while in high school. You (in the general sense) can't argue that Romney's academic history is relevant while claiming that Obama's should be kept secret.
Click to expand...

Romney's academic history is irrelevant. What hi-jinks Romney engaged in when he was in high school are irrelevant.
 
#54
#54
LG, I doubt Barry is from Mars, a planet far more likely would be Uranus.

toon120518.jpg


American Thinker- Print Article

A mathematical tool is offered to evaluate the likelihood, in light of the Breitbart disclosure, that Mr. Obama was born in the United States.

How ought one evaluate the evidentiary significance of the 1991 literary agency promotional booklet claiming that their client Barack Obama was born in Kenya?
--------------------------

Those who are unfamiliar with Bayes' theorem may be interested to know that is has wide application in sciences including biology, physics, criminology, and much else besides. With apologies to those already comfortable with the theorem, let us begin considering the impact of the booklet with respect to judgments regarding Mr. Obama's birthplace by considering that aspect of the theorem known as the "prior probability."

What Bayes' theorem does is allow one to calculate the probability of an event by adding new information to the information one begins with. In Bayesian analysis, the information one begins with is called the "prior probability." This prior probability is then "updated" with additional information. In our analysis, the update consists in information contained in the promotional booklet. The prior probability can be specified in several ways; essentially, though, it is the probability that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya irrespective of the booklet.
-----------------------

What then shall we say about the prior probability p(A) that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya? There are many who take themselves to be certain that he was born in Hawaii. It is reasonable to ask such persons what, if anything, in life is truly certain. It is also reasonable to point out that such persons are also saying that there is no evidence that could possibly come to light that would prompt them to change their minds. Is that a reasonable position to hold?

Probably not, so all else equal, it is rational to exclude such persons from the discussion (and they probably have not read this far anyway).
-----------------------

At this point, reasonable people will ask themselves just how compelling they think the evidence favorable to Mr. Obama is. Many will find it extremely compelling. If you're one of them, can you, at least approximately, quantify your judgment?
-----------------------------

To do this, Bayes' Theorem directs us to compare the probability that the promotional booklet says Mr. Obama was born in Kenya under the supposition that he really was born in Kenya (p (B/A)) with the probability that the promotional booklet says Mr. Obama was born in Kenya given that he was born in the United States (p (B/-A)), and then view this comparison in light of the prior.
-----------------------------------

So, unless we can say Kenya was unusual from a probabilistic standpoint in connection with the representations of literary agents and/or that literary agencies have become less reliable over time, we can frame the immediate inquiry as: how likely is it that an autobiographical client's literary agency will correctly state that they were born in the country they were in fact born in?

I daresay they will be accurate in the above sense 9999 times out of 10000, and even that strikes the present writer as rather, shall we say, "unappreciative" of the accuracy of literary agents. That is, when they choose to specify a place of birth for an autobiographical client, they almost always get it right, do they not?

Let us identify a probability of .9999 as the likelihood that the booklet would say Mr. Obama was born in Kenya under the supposition that he was born in Kenya.
-----------------------------

To be exact, Mr. Obama's campaign says that "the mistake in the pamphlet was 'nothing more than a fact-checking error' by the agent [Ms. Gonderich]."

This echoes quite well Ms. Gonderich's statement that "[t]his was nothing more than a fact checking error by me -- an agency assistant at the time. There was never any information given to us by Obama in any of his correspondence or other communications suggesting in any way that he was born in Kenya and not Hawaii. Mr. Obama never suggested in any way that he was born in Kenya and not Hawaii."

So Ms. Goderich did not receive information that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya from Mr. Obama. Perhaps, then, Ms. Goderich declared that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya as a result of some stray rumor, or perhaps Ms. Goderich for some unknown reason inferred that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya because his father was? What else could account for a literary agent's (and one responsible for an autobiography, at that) mistaken assumption that someone born in the United States was born in Kenya if the agent was not led to the conclusion in one way or another?

How likely is it that a random error like the one asserted by Mr. Obama's campaign and Ms. Goderich explains the mistake of stating that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya if in fact he was born in the United States?
-------------------------

.... and, lastly, if you once again set the probability that the booklet would say he was from Kenya if he in fact was at .9999, your updated probability that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya is an astonishing .502, or 50.2%, as anyone who consults Bayes' Theorem can confirm for themselves. Thus, the booklet information would prompt you to move from judging that Mr. Obama is about as likely to have been born in Kenya as the Colts are to win the Super Bowl next year to concluding that Mr. Obama is more likely than not to have been born in Kenya.

Paradoxically, if you believe the Obama campaign, and therefore Ms. Goderich's statement that Mr. Obama never suggested in any way that he was born in Kenya and not Hawaii, under Bayes' Theorem it becomes more likely, not less likely, that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya.
----------------------------

It follows under the supposition of intentional misrepresentation that if one wishes to make a rational case for the belief that the promotional booklet's declaration that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya has nothing much to do with the likelihood that he really was, one should either provide good reasons for thinking that Mr. Obama had good reasons to misrepresent his place of birth, but only to his literary agency, or make a reasonable attempt to locate another document -- itself obviously not dispositive of the issue and also independent of literary agency processes -- paradoxically indicating that Mr. Obama was born in Kenya.

That is, if Mr. Obama did, contrary to his campaign's current statement, intentionally misrepresent his place of birth to his literary agent but did not have good reasons to restrict his misrepresentation to just his literary agent, do we not have reason to expect that there are other documents, independent of literary agency processes, that indicate a Kenyan birth?
--------------------------

If one believes the Obama campaign, then, if one is to avoid the conclusion that Mr. Obama is more likely than not to have been born in Kenya and at the same time be reasonable, one should provide reason for believing at least one of the following three things, and even then things will depend on probabilities assigned to remaining items, if any:
-----------------------

Is the birther position at present unreasonable? Surely not; in fact, it may well be the most reasonable position to adopt even if you still think you had very good reasons to the contrary in advance of the promotional booklet's release.
---------------------------

Finally, the reason why evidence that disfavors Obama was not included in the article is that the case conservatives make is even stronger if it can win even when it makes serious concessions to the other side, right?

Jason Kissner Ph.D., J.D. is associate professor of criminology, California State University, Fresno.
Click to expand...

We can rest assured there is a 100% chance that Obama is a liar, either he was lying from 1991 through 2007 or he has been lying from 2007 through 2012.

fallonobama.jpg


I would like to pose what I think is a reasonable question to Obama supporters; "why doesn't Obama's current (he may have used as many as a half dozen in his life,) SSN pass an E-Verify check?" (and why was it issued in a state in whichy Obama never resided?)

In other words in states where it is illegal to hire undocumented or those with false documentation, Obama couldn't even get a job, much less be president of the USA.


2el5e1k.gif


2euo4fb.jpg
 
#55
#55
I would like to pose what I think is a reasonable question to Obama supporters; "why doesn't Obama's current (he may have used as many as a half dozen in his life,) SSN pass an E-Verify check?" (and why was it issued in a state in whichy Obama never resided?)
In other words in states where it is illegal to hire undocumented or those with false documentation, Obama couldn't even get a job, much less be president of the USA.


GS - How do you have his SSN?
 
#57
#57
therealUT said:
Interesting to see a Christian referring to Bayes' theorem regarding beliefs...
Click to expand...


How did you jump to that conclusion?

The article is written by a criminology professor.
I didn't notice where he mentioned anything about faith.

25pjygm.jpg


euhdlh.jpg








hog88 said:
I would like to pose what I think is a reasonable question to Obama supporters; "why doesn't Obama's current (he may have used as many as a half dozen in his life,) SSN pass an E-Verify check?" (and why was it issued in a state in whichy Obama never resided?)
In other words in states where it is illegal to hire undocumented or those with false documentation, Obama couldn't even get a job, much less be president of the USA.


GS - How do you have his SSN?
Click to expand...

I don't have it but others do, such as sheriff Arpaio.

Here is another interesting question, why has neither of the Honolulu hospitals claimed to be the birthplace of Obama but the Mombasa hospital in Kenya does.

o8ucd4.jpg


4l21k9.jpg


Then too the Kenyan government thinks he was born a British subject in Kenya.

Obama monument to cost Sh112 million - News |nation.co.ke

Amazon.com: Customer Discussions: Intel report: Kenyans honor Obama's 'birthplace'

The 2009 NSIS bulletin report said:

The ministry of national heritage this month hosted a cultural festival in Kogelo and commissioned a cultural museum on a plot donated by a member of the Kogelo community. The cultural festival was attended by the minister for national heritage, William ole Ntimama and U.S. ambassador, Michael Ranneberger.

This was to honour the birthplace of President Obama and re-dedicate the tomb of Barack Hussein Obama, Sr., the president's late father.
Click to expand...
 
#59
#59
wow, those two pictures in gs' post above are some of the worst photoshops I've ever seen

what idiotic blog site were those pulled off of?
 
#60
#60
therealUT said:
Has nothing to do with who the article is written by and everything to do with the person who is using the article as evidence in his post.
Click to expand...

"My philosophy has always been to attack the post and not the poster."
Volfreak

o0uu06.jpg








MG1968 said:
wow, those two pictures in gs' post above are some of the worst photoshops I've ever seen

what idiotic blog site were those pulled off of?
Click to expand...

Never mind the art work, the Mombasa hospital claims
to be the birthplace of BHO Jr, both Honolulu hospitals
decline to do so.

hawaii-governor-neil-abercrombie-finds-obama-birth-certificate-kenya-homeland-sad-hill-news.jpg


If the governor of Hawaii can't come up with the
birth certificate, who can.

2l0xlv.gif
 
#61
#61
Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio has sent one of his deputies to Hawaii to accompany an official in his volunteer posse investigating President Barack Obama's birth certificate.

The 1:53 minute TV news video at link:
Joe Arpaio's Cold Case Posse in Hawaii 5/22/2012 - YouTube

The HDOH has apparently altered the BC#’s for both Stig Waidelich and Virginia Sunahara, according to HDOH spokesperson Janice Okubo’s official responses saying that Oahu BC#’s were almost always given by the HDOH on the “date filed”. The particular combination of a BC# being higher than BC’s filed 3 days later is a very peculiar “fingerprint” that doesn’t fit a normal hospital birth like either Obama’s or Stig Waidelich, but does fit the extremely rare circumstances for Virginia Sunahara.

And the database record for Virginia Sunahara had been changed to a different name at one point because a query for her birth record came up with no records. So the HDOH has been manipulating BC#’s on certified copies of COLB’s and has apparently temporarily changed Virginia Sunahara’s record. None of that would be necessary if Obama had a valid 1961 BC#.
 
#62
#62
gsvol said:
Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio has sent one of his deputies to Hawaii to accompany an official in his volunteer posse investigating President Barack Obama's birth certificate.

The 1:53 minute TV news video at link:
Joe Arpaio's Cold Case Posse in Hawaii 5/22/2012 - YouTube

The HDOH has apparently altered the BC#’s for both Stig Waidelich and Virginia Sunahara, according to HDOH spokesperson Janice Okubo’s official responses saying that Oahu BC#’s were almost always given by the HDOH on the “date filed”. The particular combination of a BC# being higher than BC’s filed 3 days later is a very peculiar “fingerprint” that doesn’t fit a normal hospital birth like either Obama’s or Stig Waidelich, but does fit the extremely rare circumstances for Virginia Sunahara.

And the database record for Virginia Sunahara had been changed to a different name at one point because a query for her birth record came up with no records. So the HDOH has been manipulating BC#’s on certified copies of COLB’s and has apparently temporarily changed Virginia Sunahara’s record. None of that would be necessary if Obama had a valid 1961 BC#.
Click to expand...

You are an idiot.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#64
#64
I love it when "Sheriff Joe" makes the following statement, with regard to the registrar not talking to "Sheriff Joe's Cold Case Posse":

And not to talk to a law enforcement agency, and cooperate like you should be cooperating among states and so on, is sad.
Click to expand...

Does this "Cold Case Posse" have jurisdiction in Hawaii? If not, why would anyone talk with and cooperate with them?
 
#65
#65
therealUT said:
I love it when "Sheriff Joe" makes the following statement, with regard to the registrar not talking to "Sheriff Joe's Cold Case Posse":



Does this "Cold Case Posse" have jurisdiction in Hawaii? If not, why would anyone talk with and cooperate with them?
Click to expand...

professional courtesy?

however unlikely the possibility may be, Hawaii LE officials might have occasion to seek the assistance of AZ law enforcement.
 
#66
#66
Scotty's Flat Top said:
No you are
Click to expand...

:good!:

How right you are.

Hawaii Senior Elections Clerk:

“For starters, just because there is no long form birth certificate on file in Hawaii, that doesn’t rule out President Obama being born elsewhere in the United States, or even in Hawaii,” states Hawaii’s former Senior Election Clerk Timothy Lee Adams in his Masters Thesis which was signed off on by four English Department Deans at Western Kentucky University in partial fulfillment of the Requirement for Degree of Master of Arts, on June 13, 2011.

Adams was the Chief Elections Clerk (Pg. 30) for the City and County of Honolulu, Hawaii.

“On a temporary contract, I ran an office that verified voter eligibility that had a staff of about fifty people,” he also told radio interview host James Edwards of the Liberty News Radio Network.

“Barack Obama was not born in Hawaii,” the former elections clerk continued.

“It (Pg. 31) was openly admitted by everyone in the office who was above me, at least my immediate supervisors, that there is no documentation.”

Adams details the governmental databases and other means of authentication used included “NCIS, Social Security, all these other things we use on average voters; there were two people higher than me in our office, who are under the City Clerk of Honolulu. . .” (Pg. 30)

Now Adams emphatically states in his Masters Thesis: “. . .in my professional opinion, Barack Obama was NOT (emphasis added) born in the United States, and there is no Hawaii long-form birth certificate.” (Pg. 30, 31)

Contrast this man’s statement, a man who was vetted for military, civil, and academic service, with the Verification of Birth certified statement of Alvin T. Onaka, State Registrar, signed and issued to Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett on May 22, 2012.
Click to expand...
 
#68
#68
I'm confused. What's the current theory?

That someone planted a fake birth certificate in 1961?

Or that someone planted one in the last ten years, then renumbered others, and somehow did it with no one noticing?

Oh, and planted a fake announcement in the Hawaii newspaper archives?

Idiocy.
 
#69
#69
lawgator1 said:
I'm confused. What's the current theory?

That someone planted a fake birth certificate in 1961?

Or that someone planted one in the last ten years, then renumbered others, and somehow did it with no one noticing?

Oh, and planted a fake announcement in the Hawaii newspaper archives?

Idiocy.
Click to expand...

It is not idiocy if four professors at Western Kentucky signed off on the theory; most likely, this thesis was written and turned in as part of Western Kentucky's illustrious "folklore" program.
 
#71
#71
#72
#72
More, this is a Master's Thesis in WKU's English MA program; not exactly a discipline known for non-fiction, journalistic integrity.

Encouraged by Dr. Dale Rigby, the creative nonfiction professor at WKU, I determined to tackle this timely and controversial subject
Click to expand...

WTF is "creative non-fiction" you may ask? Well, obviously, birther ****.
 
#73
#73
This just gets better and better:

Since the initial writing project for this study was based in New Journalism, I have decided to stay with this approach for the larger work. New Journalism makes no pretense for objectivity...The movement could be defined as a post-modern approach to journalism, one in which the old ideals of objectivity and unbiased reporting of facts are discarded...
Click to expand...

GS, do I need to keep reading this nonsense? Is this akin to "new math"?
 
#74
#74
"Now Adams emphatically states in his Masters Thesis:*“. . .in my professional opinion, Barack Obama was NOT (emphasis added) born in the United States, and there is no Hawaii long-form birth certificate.”**(Pg. 30, 31)*


In my professional opinion anyone who believes Obama was not born in Hawaii
is a complete moron.
Signed,
Gramps
 
New Posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

Advertisement



Back
Top