Bama is a 10 point favorite

#127
#127
chatt-townVOL said:
8 to 13 is insane. No respect from the betters. I'm gonna say they think we will continue to turn the ball over.
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It opened at 10; not 8. Here is the thinking from Vegas:

Tennessee came up short in overtime at Texas A&M last week, but the Vols’ resilience paid off for their backers. They were down by 21 points in the third quarter, but fought back to get the cash as 8-point underdogs in the 45-38 loss.


There are several factors that do not bode well for Tennessee this spot, though: its tendency to start slow, injuries and a brutal stretch of schedule.

Salmons believes the Vols’ bubble may be about to burst.

“I give Tennessee credit,” Salmons said. “I don’t know how they keep going on with these injuries they keep taking on. It’s just unbelievable. Every week, it’s guy after guy after guy they keep losing."

Over the last four weeks, Tennessee has played Florida, at Georgia, at Texas A&M and now home against ‘Bama. How long can they keep hanging in there?

“This is one of the hardest stretch of schedules that any team could ever go through,” Salmons said “… You’ve got to say something about their perseverance, but some week they’re going to crack.”

The Vols’ M.O. this week could get them into the kind of trouble they can’t get out of.

“Tennessee seems to be slow starters and they pick it up in the second half,” Avello said. “That’s not a good way to play against this team.”

The status of running back Jalen Hurd is of particular importance to this matchup, added Avello.

“Without him, their chances are minimal; with him, I give them a puncher’s chance,” he said.

The Wynn’s opening number of Alabama -10 looked cheap to early bettors, who laid it up to -12 by Monday morning. In fact, the Westgate was dealing -13 on Monday.
 
#128
#128
Pretty sure they're setting these lines so high bc they expect us to cover. ESPN's FPI has had this game as a slightly higher probability for us to win than TAMU since the preseason. Many people were saying a week ago that they thought Bama at home could be easier than TAMU away. I have more confidence that we win this game than I had for us winning against TAMU.
 
#132
#132
VOL-uh-tile said:
Pretty sure they're setting these lines so high bc they expect us to cover. ESPN's FPI has had this game as a slightly higher probability for us to win than TAMU since the preseason. Many people were saying a week ago that they thought Bama at home could be easier than TAMU away. I have more confidence that we win this game than I had for us winning against TAMU.
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Yes, I remember that discussion. Bama at home is an easier game than Texas A&M on our first visit to College Station.
 
#133
#133
Jax_Vol said:
It opened at 10; not 8. Here is the thinking from Vegas:

Tennessee came up short in overtime at Texas A&M last week, but the Vols’ resilience paid off for their backers. They were down by 21 points in the third quarter, but fought back to get the cash as 8-point underdogs in the 45-38 loss.


There are several factors that do not bode well for Tennessee this spot, though: its tendency to start slow, injuries and a brutal stretch of schedule.

Salmons believes the Vols’ bubble may be about to burst.

“I give Tennessee credit,” Salmons said. “I don’t know how they keep going on with these injuries they keep taking on. It’s just unbelievable. Every week, it’s guy after guy after guy they keep losing."

Over the last four weeks, Tennessee has played Florida, at Georgia, at Texas A&M and now home against ‘Bama. How long can they keep hanging in there?

“This is one of the hardest stretch of schedules that any team could ever go through,” Salmons said “… You’ve got to say something about their perseverance, but some week they’re going to crack.”

The Vols’ M.O. this week could get them into the kind of trouble they can’t get out of.

“Tennessee seems to be slow starters and they pick it up in the second half,” Avello said. “That’s not a good way to play against this team.”

The status of running back Jalen Hurd is of particular importance to this matchup, added Avello.

“Without him, their chances are minimal; with him, I give them a puncher’s chance,” he said.

The Wynn’s opening number of Alabama -10 looked cheap to early bettors, who laid it up to -12 by Monday morning. In fact, the Westgate was dealing -13 on Monday.
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It 100% opened at 8. Just moved to 10 almost immediately.
 
#136
#136
It all comes down to whether we can block them or not. They laid waste to Arkansas's Oline. With the injuries, and no way of telling if any of those guys come back this week or not ( thanks Butch) is concerning.

Bama's offense doesn't impress all that much. It's the defense on that team. They score a couple of touchdowns on their own most games.
 
#139
#139
chatt-townVOL said:
It 100% opened at 8. Just moved to 10 almost immediately.
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It opened at -8 on sites like Oddshark and vegasinsider. It did not open -8 at Vegas sports books. Vegas sports books don't release their lines until Monday (today).

Go back and look at the link you posted in the OP. Not a single Vegas sports book in the link you posted had the opening line at - 8.
 
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#141
#141
Probably gonna be more than 8. Hell fire their averaging 48 pts per game and they are doing that with 3 true freshman starting on offense.
 
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#144
#144
It's like beating a dead horse but it goes without saying the Vols have to have a complete game to have any chance against Bama. Can't have 7 turnovers again, cannot start slow, cannot get behind by 17-21 points, etc.

I have faith this team can be competitive in this game, but we will not win if we don't figure out some way to fix our first half woes. Call me a negavol all you want. I love this team and feel like their the most resilient team in the nation, And that would serve you very well in big games like the SEC championship or the playoffs. That experience is invaluable.

But we will not make it there if we don't put together complete performances. And it will take that this week for a banged up Tennessee to beat a healthy Alabama.
 
#145
#145
I just don't get this drastic line shift. 5 points in 24 hours on some sites?? I get that we are banged up but we have a home game and have not been beaten by double digits since early 2014. How can people really think this TN team will get rolled at home more so than they did on the road against eventual National Champions Alabama last year?

This is going to be a fight. One I don't expect us to win, but our guys are not going to roll over at home.
 
#146
#146
VersaceButch said:
I just don't get this drastic line shift. 5 points in 24 hours on some sites?? I get that we are banged up but we have a home game and have not been beaten by double digits since early 2014. How can people really think this TN team will get rolled at home more so than they did on the road against eventual National Champions Alabama last year?

This is going to be a fight. One I don't expect us to win, but our guys are not going to roll over at home.
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We are banged up badly and the money thinks we won't be able to hang with our backups.
 
#148
#148
VersaceButch said:
I just don't get this drastic line shift. 5 points in 24 hours on some sites?? I get that we are banged up but we have a home game and have not been beaten by double digits since early 2014. How can people really think this TN team will get rolled at home more so than they did on the road against eventual National Champions Alabama last year?

This is going to be a fight. One I don't expect us to win, but our guys are not going to roll over at home.
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I have yet to find a site where it has shifted 5 points. It's shifted 1.5 -3, which is not drastic at all in my opinion.
 
#150
#150
VersaceButch said:
I just don't get this drastic line shift. 5 points in 24 hours on some sites?? I get that we are banged up but we have a home game and have not been beaten by double digits since early 2014. How can people really think this TN team will get rolled at home more so than they did on the road against eventual National Champions Alabama last year?

This is going to be a fight. One I don't expect us to win, but our guys are not going to roll over at home.
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Last year we were coming off our bye and Bama was a week before their bye after already playing some very physical teams. So we are at our weakest point in the season TY, but we actually do return DK and JH, and our DL is pretty healthy still. Don't know about our OL tho. If we get back all our OL, I'd say we are better team wise than last week, and as such I expect this game to be very close. I 50% expect us to win.
 
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