Average margin of loss to big 3 (career)

#1
T

tnutater

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#1
Hornblower 11.2 (includes Dobb Nail boot game)

Orange Britches 18.9

Last Coach 24.1

New Coach 26.6
 
#3
#3
tnutater said:
Hornblower 11.2 (includes Dobb Nail boot game)

Orange Britches 18.9

Last Coach 24.1

New Coach 26.6
Click to expand...
Not surprising to me. Butch had one of the most talented teams in several years. Kirby really hadn’t gotten Georgia rolling good during Butch or Dooley days. Bama and Georgia are both elite teams. If you want to focus on Florida well that’s a little more of an issue.
 
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#4
#4
tnutater said:
Hornblower 11.2 (includes Dobb Nail boot game)

Orange Britches 18.9

Last Coach 24.1

New Coach 26.6
Click to expand...

Ah yes, the old completely lacking context set of numbers that are supposed to signify something of significance but instead end up just making the OP look stupid... Thank you for your work, citizen... 10/10 post...
 
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#8
#8
tnutater said:
Hornblower 11.2 (includes Dobb Nail boot game)

Orange Britches 18.9

Last Coach 24.1

New Coach 26.6
Click to expand...
If the goal was to not lose by a bunch, im sure we couldve accomplished that. We played aggressive and tried to win without worrying about the final score was going to be. I like that approach much better than stalling so the other team doesnt score as much. Not interested in moral victories. A loss is a loss.
 
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#11
#11
OP math is a bit off - overall picture is pretty much the same although Heupel comes in a bit better than Pruitt.

Heupel: 0-3, -25.33 average result
Pruitt: 0-9, -26.33 average result
Jones: 3-12, -12 average result
Dooley: 0-9, -19.5 average result
Kiffin: 1-2, +4.67 average result

You can leave it at that if you're just interested in doom and gloom... or you can acknowledge this isn't even remotely an apples to apples comparison anyway, because Pruitt had a play not to lose, cynical gameplan that said chew clock and try not to let the opponent run up the score. Heupel is sometimes allergic to field goals and often uses 4th down as another chance to run the offense, even on our own side of the 50. Those margins this year are directly attributable to going for it and actually trying to win games rather than just trying to beat the spread. I'll be interested in seeing the comparison after Heupel has a sample size comparable to the prior coaches and has had the opportunity to load a roster with players with experience running his offense and Banks' defense. Mathy stuff below if anyone wants the raw numbers.

Heupel:
2021 Florida 14-38 (-24)
2021 Alabama 24-52 (-28)
2021 Georgia 17-41 (-24)
-24, -28, -24
0-3 record, -25.33 average result
Pruitt:
2018 Florida 21-47 (-26)
2018 Georgia 12-38 (-26)
2018 Alabama 21-58 (-37)
2019 Florida 3-34 (-31)
2019 Georgia 14-43 (-29)
2019 Alabama 13-35 (-22)
2020 Georgia 21-44 (-23)
2020 Alabama 17-48 (-31)
2020 Florida 19-31 (-12)
-26, -26, -37, -31, -29, -22, -23, -31, -12
0-9 record, -26.33 average result
Jones:
2013 Florida 17-31 (-14)
2013 Georgia 31-34 (-3)
2013 Alabama 10-45 (-35)
2014 Georgia 32-35 (-3)
2014 Florida 9-10 (-1)
2014 Alabama 20-34 (-14)
2015 Florida 27-28 (-1)
2015 Georgia 38-31 (+7)
2015 Alabama 14-19 (-5)
2016 Florida 38-28 (+10)
2016 Georgia 34-31 (+3)
2016 Alabama 10-49 (-39)
2017 Florida 20-26 (-6)
2017 Georgia 0-41 (-41)
2017 Alabama 7-45 (-38)
-14, -3, -35, -3, -1, -14, -1, +7, -5, +10, +3, -39, -6, -41, -38
3-12 record, -12 average result
Dooley:
2010 Florida 17-31 (-14)
2010 Georgia 14-41 (-27)
2010 Alabama 10-41 (-31)
2011 Florida 23-33 (-10)
2011 Georgia 12-20 (-8)
2011 Alabama 6-37 (-31)
2012 Florida 20-37 (-17)
2012 Georgia 44-51 (-7)
2012 Alabama 13-44 (-31)
-14, -27, -31, -10, -8, -31, -17, -7, -31
0-9 record, -19.5 average result
Kiffin:
2009 Florida 13-23 (-10)
2009 Georgia 45-19 (+26)
2009 Alabama 12-12 (-2)
-10, +26, -2
1-2 record, +4.67 average result
 
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#12
#12
Tnman1 said:
Now do Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Missouri cause losing to them is way worse.
Click to expand...
Ask and ye shall receive :p

Heupel
2021 Missouri 62-24 (+38)
2021 South Carolina 45-20 (+25)
2021 Kentucky 45-42 (+3)
2021 Vanderbilt
3-0 so far, +22 average margin

Pruitt
2020 South Carolina 31-27 (+4)
2020 Missouri 35-12 (+23)
2020 Kentucky 7-34 (-27)
2020 Vanderbilt 42-17 (+25)
2019 South Carolina 41-21 (+20)
2019 Kentucky 17-13 (+4)
2019 Missouri 24-20 (+4)
2019 Vanderbilt 28-10 (+18)
2018 South Carolina 24-27 (-3)
2018 Kentucky 24-7 (+17)
2018 Missouri 17-50 (-37)
2018 Vanderbilt 13-38 (-25)
8-4, +1.92 average margin
 
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#13
#13
tnutater said:
Hornblower 11.2 (includes Dobb Nail boot game)

Orange Britches 18.9

Last Coach 24.1

New Coach 26.6
Click to expand...
You have to look at who coached the other side at the time and the talent disparity. You aren't comparing apples and apples.

Also... it isn't a big enough sample set for Heupel.

Lastly, he was competitive against each of the 3 until their superior talent and depth overwhelmed him. Let's see if the can close that gap then start making evaluations like this.
 
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#14
#14
ArmchairQB said:
Ask and ye shall receive :p

Heupel
2021 Missouri 62-24 (+38)
2021 South Carolina 45-20 (+25)
2021 Kentucky 45-42 (+3)
2021 Vanderbilt
3-0 so far, +22 average margin

Pruitt
2020 South Carolina 31-27 (+4)
2020 Missouri 35-12 (+23)
2020 Kentucky 7-34 (-27)
2020 Vanderbilt 42-17 (+25)
2019 South Carolina 41-21 (+20)
2019 Kentucky 17-13 (+4)
2019 Missouri 24-20 (+4)
2019 Vanderbilt 28-10 (+18)
2018 South Carolina 24-27 (-3)
2018 Kentucky 24-7 (+17)
2018 Missouri 17-50 (-37)
2018 Vanderbilt 13-38 (-25)
8-4, +1.92 average margin
Click to expand...
Wish I could give you a bunch of likes, sadly can only do one
 
#15
#15
ArmchairQB said:
OP math is a bit off - overall picture is pretty much the same although Heupel comes in a bit better than Pruitt.

Heupel: 0-3, -25.33 average result
Pruitt: 0-9, -26.33 average result
Jones: 3-12, -12 average result
Dooley: 0-9, -19.5 average result
Kiffin: 1-2, +4.67 average result

You can leave it at that if you're just interested in doom and gloom... or you can acknowledge this isn't even remotely an apples to apples comparison anyway, because Pruitt had a play not to lose, cynical gameplan that said chew clock and try not to let the opponent run up the score. Heupel is sometimes allergic to field goals and often uses 4th down as another chance to run the offense, even on our own side of the 50. Those margins this year are directly attributable to going for it and actually trying to win games rather than just trying to beat the spread. I'll be interested in seeing the comparison after Heupel has a sample size comparable to the prior coaches and has had the opportunity to load a roster with players with experience running his offense and Banks' defense. Mathy stuff below if anyone wants the raw numbers.

Heupel:
2021 Florida 14-38 (-24)
2021 Alabama 24-52 (-28)
2021 Georgia 17-41 (-24)
-24, -28, -24
0-3 record, -25.33 average result
Pruitt:
2018 Florida 21-47 (-26)
2018 Georgia 12-38 (-26)
2018 Alabama 21-58 (-37)
2019 Florida 3-34 (-31)
2019 Georgia 14-43 (-29)
2019 Alabama 13-35 (-22)
2020 Georgia 21-44 (-23)
2020 Alabama 17-48 (-31)
2020 Florida 19-31 (-12)
-26, -26, -37, -31, -29, -22, -23, -31, -12
0-9 record, -26.33 average result
Jones:
2013 Florida 17-31 (-14)
2013 Georgia 31-34 (-3)
2013 Alabama 10-45 (-35)
2014 Georgia 32-35 (-3)
2014 Florida 9-10 (-1)
2014 Alabama 20-34 (-14)
2015 Florida 27-28 (-1)
2015 Georgia 38-31 (+7)
2015 Alabama 14-19 (-5)
2016 Florida 38-28 (+10)
2016 Georgia 34-31 (+3)
2016 Alabama 10-49 (-39)
2017 Florida 20-26 (-6)
2017 Georgia 0-41 (-41)
2017 Alabama 7-45 (-38)
-14, -3, -35, -3, -1, -14, -1, +7, -5, +10, +3, -39, -6, -41, -38
3-12 record, -12 average result
Dooley:
2010 Florida 17-31 (-14)
2010 Georgia 14-41 (-27)
2010 Alabama 10-41 (-31)
2011 Florida 23-33 (-10)
2011 Georgia 12-20 (-8)
2011 Alabama 6-37 (-31)
2012 Florida 20-37 (-17)
2012 Georgia 44-51 (-7)
2012 Alabama 13-44 (-31)
-14, -27, -31, -10, -8, -31, -17, -7, -31
0-9 record, -19.5 average result
Kiffin:
2009 Florida 13-23 (-10)
2009 Georgia 45-19 (+26)
2009 Alabama 12-12 (-2)
-10, +26, -2
1-2 record, +4.67 average result
Click to expand...
So basically what you are saying is Butch Jones is the best coach UT has had since Fulmer?
 
#16
#16
FLVOL_79 said:
So basically what you are saying is Butch Jones is the best coach UT has had since Fulmer?
Click to expand...
Jones had a better tenure than Dooley or Pruitt, no doubt about that, and that's a pretty sorry state of affairs. If Heupel continues the way this year has looked, he's going to run circles around Jones's record after 5 years. Hopefully all 5 of those years are here.
 
#17
#17
tnutater said:
Hornblower 11.2 (includes Dobb Nail boot game)

Orange Britches 18.9

Last Coach 24.1

New Coach 26.6
Click to expand...
This was a very strange way to start a thread. I assume that by the "Big 3" you are talking about Alabama, Georgia and Florida? I guess "Hornblower" is Butch Jones? I've never seen him called that before. I'm not sure what point you are trying to make, but you should probably wait until Heupel has more than just a 3 game sample size over the course of 1 season to make it. This is not as telling, as you seem to think it is. It's like you went searching for negativity, and came away from your search a little desperate. This is what a troll does.

... and for what it's worth, Dooley (6-7 in 2010), Jones (5-7 in 2013) and Pruitt (5-7 in 2018) all finished with a losing record in their first season. A win on Saturday at home vs Vanderbilt, guarantees Heupel of no worse than a 7-6 record in his first season.
 
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#18
#18
I didnt have much expectation for the "big 3" games this year, but we competed and showed some encouraging signs in each. Im a numbers guy and all, but losing to Florida in Neyland the day we checkered the stadium and Muschamp stuck it to us post game(I think we lost that day 10-9) felt worse than a 20+ point loss..
 
#19
#19
sjt18 said:
You have to look at who coached the other side at the time and the talent disparity. You aren't comparing apples and apples.

Also... it isn't a big enough sample set for Heupel.

Lastly, he was competitive against each of the 3 until their superior talent and depth overwhelmed him. Let's see if the can close that gap then start making evaluations like this.
Click to expand...
You nailed it. In particular, Georgia is much better now than they were from 2013-2016, when Tennessee was coached by Butch Jones... and how did Jones do vs Georgia in 2017, when Smart really started to get things going? He lost by the score of 41-0 in Neyland.
 
#20
#20
Stats without context can be very misleading, e.g., I am the perfect weight for a P5 linebacker!

To the point, I watched almost all of the referenced games and would prefer our current coach over all of the others.
 
#22
#22
At least get your facts straight.

Average loss is different then “average”.

Heupel’s average loss is not 26.6………also even as it is Heupel contributed directly to a higher average point loss because he simply tried to win instead of trying to make it closer.

Heupel refused to punt a few times (trying to make it and possibly win) giving the ball back on their side of the field. He also refused to kick field goals a few times when they wouldn’t have helped to win……….each of which caused the point total to be different than it definitely could have been.

I’ll take a coach who has done better than any of the other ones year one since Fulmer, and one who tries to win instead of tries to make it simply “look” better all day over all of those other guys.


Keep trying; however isn’t “wins” the major thing we want?
 
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#23
#23
Factor in how much improved Georgia is and how many players we lost and that the “career” stat for CJH is 1 season.

I tend to be a NegaVol too but to quote President Potatoe “come on man”.
 
#24
#24
I think playing the lack of depth and talent card blows this comparison out of the water.

If the pattern holds the same on the gap 2 years from now then there may be some validity to it.
 
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