Analytics....

[DOCTORLOOMIS]

I believe the correct play EV wise was to go for it on 4th and 2 vs kicking the FG to go up 7 at the end. The first down ends it with virtual 100% certainty. If we don't get it critical time comes off the clock. I'm not complaining.... simply curious what you guys feel the analytics said to do.

 

[Dergibvol]

I believe the correct play EV wise was to go for it on 4th and 2 vs kicking the FG to go up 7 at the end. The first down ends it with virtual 100% certainty. If we don't get it critical time comes off the clock. I'm not complaining.... simply curious what you guys feel the analytics said to do.

No time comes off the clock if they don't make it. Clock stops on change of possession. You kick the FG Everytime unless you are on the road and a 17 point or more dog

 

[Voltopia]

My cardiovascular system would have preferred them going for it and getting a first down, settle it right there, sure, but with how dominant the defense had been, I was okay with the kick. Haivng 7 would let the D go after them, too, and that's more or less what they did.

2022 team, definitely, go for it on fourth down. But this team hangs its hat on the D, and the D laid the wood to Alabama almost all game.

 

[DiderotsGhost]

"Analytics" are dumb on this one. (And in reality, it's bad "analytics" saying that). You go for a 7 point lead 100% of the time.

The incorrect move was doing a boring, conservative run on 3rd and 4. Good chance to convert there and you know Alabama is getting 1:30'ish regardless. I would've rolled Nico out and either scrambled or try to hit a short pass there to finish the game.

But once you're on 4th, you got to kick the FG.

 

[Vol_in_NC_1999]

I believe the correct play EV wise was to go for it on 4th and 2 vs kicking the FG to go up 7 at the end. The first down ends it with virtual 100% certainty. If we don't get it critical time comes off the clock. I'm not complaining.... simply curious what you guys feel the analytics said to do.

I think with a kicker like ours you go for the field goal. Even with two missed field goals earlier in the game, the odds favor us kicking for a field goal.

 

[Voltopia]

"Analytics" are dumb on this one. (And in reality, it's bad "analytics" saying that). You go for a 7 point lead 100% of the time.

The incorrect move was doing a boring, conservative run on 3rd and 4. Good chance to convert there and you know Alabama is getting 1:30'ish regardless. I would've rolled Nico out and either scrambled or try to hit a short pass there to finish the game.

But once you're on 4th, you got to kick the FG.

This, definitely. When Alabama loaded up heavy for that second down play, I was hoping we'd have a little over the top action to try and catch them hunting. It ended up well anyway, but I was hoping for a bit of that 2022 Hungry Hungry Heupel magic.

 

[Golfprovol]

I believe the correct play EV wise was to go for it on 4th and 2 vs kicking the FG to go up 7 at the end. The first down ends it with virtual 100% certainty. If we don't get it critical time comes off the clock. I'm not complaining.... simply curious what you guys feel the analytics said to do.

Kick the damn FG...

 

[Golfprovol]

"Analytics" are dumb on this one. (And in reality, it's bad "analytics" saying that). You go for a 7 point lead 100% of the time.

The incorrect move was doing a boring, conservative run on 3rd and 4. Good chance to convert there and you know Alabama is getting 1:30'ish regardless. I would've rolled Nico out and either scrambled or try to hit a short pass there to finish the game.

But once you're on 4th, you got to kick the FG.

Rolling him out puts the ball away from the center of the field. He played for the straight on FG.

 

[landscapingvol]

I believe the correct play EV wise was to go for it on 4th and 2 vs kicking the FG to go up 7 at the end. The first down ends it with virtual 100% certainty. If we don't get it critical time comes off the clock. I'm not complaining.... simply curious what you guys feel the analytics said to do.

I thought they should have went for it as well

 

[Golfprovol]

I thought they should have went for it as well

Go for it and miss, give them a momentum boost, give up a TD and get beat.....kick it every time

 

[The Original Fade]

Nico could’ve kept it on a RPO keeper and easily picked up 2 yards

 

[nomads-11]

I like the FG. Make them drive the field with no time outs and the current play by the defense. Likely worst case result: overtime. Chances of that? What's the chart say in that regard? I say it's a low percentage.

 

[OrangeBeachVol]

Think FG was the correct choice in this situation. FG kicker was 100% from that range and making it means if Bama did get a lucky TD pass you don't lose and have OT.

 

[volbound1700]

I wanted the FG. Had Alabama made a big play, we would have OT instead of an L.

 

[BDP!]

100% of the time you kick it there and go up 7

 

[WiseOlVol]

My cardiovascular system would have preferred them going for it and getting a first down, settle it right there, sure, but with how dominant the defense had been, I was okay with the kick. Haivng 7 would let the D go after them, too, and that's more or less what they did.

2022 team, definitely, go for it on fourth down. But this team hangs its hat on the D, and the D laid the wood to Alabama almost all game.

Remember, vs Florida Josh went on 4th down inside his own red zone. Worked easily.