"Analytics"

#102
#102
lonelawyer said:
CBJ said that analytics went into the decision to kick the field goal from the 8 inch line. 4 or 5 hours of planning.
He says that the coaching staff leaves nothing to chance.

I believe CBJ is a good coach and is on the right track, but do any of you agree that relying too much on such logical analysis handicaps you in game situations.

Mr. Spock made an excellent science officer but...
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Brad Pitt is too tall, so maybe Jonah Hill can play Jones in Moneyball 2. The sequel is just like the original in that the A's didn't win either. They had great slogans and cliches though. Very strong slogans and cliches indeed. Maybe the problem is that we don't have a catchphrase for overtime. "63" doesn't cover overtime. This may be one of the issues to address in practice this week. "65.875 plus however many untimed periods it takes" would be much more appropriate. Now I have to reconsider the whole perception of Jones. Maybe his slogans aren't world class after all. Maybe they are as tired amd ineffective as his "hurry up and punt" offensive scheme.
 
#103
#103
Why do we have coaches that are supposed to coach on gamedays when we can have a computer using analytical algorithms to decide what plays to run and when?

Coaches are there to make gametime decisions that will sometimes go against what the book says to do...especially when you have 103k fans backing you up on the 6 inch line. Also, you cant measure the added confidence the players would have had from 6 points there...
 
#105
#105
lonelawyer said:
do any of you agree that relying too much on such logical analysis handicaps you in game situations.
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???.... Maybe you just phrased that wrong. I'll go with logic every time. The decision in question though, it was in more of a gray area IMO. Points on the board are better than none but even if UT didn't make it, they had plenty of time left to make up for the mistake. IMO, it's better to take a big risk early so there is time to make up for it than to try something like that late in the game when, if it fails, there's very little that can be done to make up for it. So I like that the coaches are taking into accout probability and statistics. This situation just wasn't as cut and dry as hindsight makes it look. To agree with you though, I would have went for it with Hurd on 3rd and a bootleg with Dobbs on 4th.
 
#106
#106
The bottom line is that living and dying by the situational probability chart is a strategy based on fear of failure. Occasionally you have to find some "testicular fortitude" as Mick Foley used to say and decide that the reward is worth the risk.
 
#108
#108
Man the butt hurt is strong up in here. I just have one ? for the 4th and 1 people. Did we not go up 17-3? Now rationally how did not going for it lose momentum. What lost us momentum was not keeping the foot on the gas til OU put in their scrubs. That is my biggest problem with Butch so far. He never hangs as many on the opposing team as he can until they concede. I'm not talking 70-3 on UT martin like Ole Miss coach. I'm talking about taking a 17 point lead to a 30 point lead by keeping your foot on the gas.
 
#110
#110
MedicT said:
I'm sorry, I forgot we were "forgetting" the bowl win. It doesn't fit the bash Butch narrative, does it.
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Not when he constantly chokes against our biggest rivals and games like Oklahoma...

But keep trying.
 
#111
#111
TlM said:
What does analytics say about having a 6'4 242 battering ram in the backfield with two chances?
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Kinda like the Super Bowl last year last play of the game. BEAST MODE! they passed , we kicked
 
#112
#112
Big time games require big time balls and big time decisions. What Butchs call told me was he didnt have faith in his offense to get 1 yard. Thats sad. And if he went for it and didnt get it? I can live with that, at least you laid it all on the line and tried your best. I highly doubt anyone could fault Butch for going for it on the 1 considering we have Hurd and the way our defense was playing. The fact is he chickened out and went the safe way.
 
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#115
#115
BigOrangeTrain said:
Big time games require big time balls and big time decisions. What Butchs call told me was he didnt have faith in his offense to get 1 yard. Thats sad. And if he went for it and didnt get it? I can live with that, at least you laid it all on the line and tried your best. I highly doubt anyone could fault Butch for going for it on the 1 considering we have Hurd and the way our defense was playing. The fact is he chickened out and went the safe way.
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Our defense had literally played one series. Hindsight much?
 
#116
#116
GLDunlap said:
The analytics also show that Medley is 1 for 8 in his career from 40-49 yards? Why is he even kicking from 48 yards?
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Because It Was 4th and forever to get a 1st down. Too close to punt. Maybe, a Hail Mary to the end zone would have a better shot at success.
 
#117
#117
I was watching the game with my brother at my house. We wondered why Butch would decline the holding penalty. We wondered why Butch wouldn't go for a 1 yard td at home on Tenn 1st possession of the game.

I made a joke about Butch probably had one of the math professors come up with some algorithm that showed when given the option of declining or accepting a holding call on 1st down that 51.3% of the time the other team ended up punting when given 2nd and 14 instead of 1st and 25.

I never thought there would be actual truth to it.
 
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#119
#119
The analytics showed that we had the rest of the game to get more points on the board. With Jones knowing our o-line as well as anybody, he chose to take three points from the turnover, and play the rest of the game. If the situation were at the end of the game and we had to have the six points, then he would have gone for the six. My question is how he could not have plays ready for that situation. A RB could have gone airborne instead of running into the line. And yeah, I think Hurd should have been in the game at that time.
 
#120
#120
gunner said:
Because It Was 4th and forever to get a 1st down. Too close to punt. Maybe, a Hail Mary to the end zone would have a better shot at success.
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Yes a hail Mary would have been a better option. I would have rather went for on 4 and 16 then rely on a kicker that connects on less then 15% of his kicks from over 40 yards. A fake field goal would have been a better option.

on a side note we were up 17-10 with the ball 4th down 6 mins to go and we punt with 21 seconds left on the play clock with the game clock running.
 
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#121
#121
GLDunlap said:
Yes a hail Mary would have been a better option. I would have rather went for on 4 and 16 then rely on a kicker that connects on less then 15% of his kicks from over 40 yards. A fake field goal would have been a better option.

on a side note we were up 17-10 with the ball 4th down 6 mins to go and we punt with 21 seconds left on the play clock with the game clock running.
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We were snapping early the whole 2nd half. You'd think that if it's obvious your offense is struggling you wouldn't be hurrying to give it back.
 
#122
#122
You noticed that, too, eh? I get it...using an algorithm to make a play call is the science part of playing this sport or any other. (Are the jokers gonna start calling every play they don't like "ButchBall?")

But there is an art to playcalling, too. It can't be measured. What that call tells your O-line is "we don't believe in you. We don't think you're good enough to get us that yard. So we're gonna kick." In hindsight, I guess we were all looking for a little more old-school testicular fortitude. I kept having visions of Dobbs doing a little naked bootleg on that play.

All in all, to be fair to the coaches, I can't say it was a bad call. Butch says Hurd was winded. We came away with three rather than none.

That play did not lose us this ballgame.

lonelawyer said:
CBJ said that analytics went into the decision to kick the field goal from the 8 inch line. 4 or 5 hours of planning.
He says that the coaching staff leaves nothing to chance.

I believe CBJ is a good coach and is on the right track, but do any of you agree that relying too much on such logical analysis handicaps you in game situations.

Mr. Spock made an excellent science officer but...
Click to expand...
 
#123
#123
Jeepkuntry said:
Analytics, physicality. Worry more about winning a game instead of impressing the fan base with your vocabulary! Sorry CBJ not accepting responsibility for this game pisses me off.

In his presser today he said that OU did not make adjustments at halftime.:eek:k:
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I have avoided making comments since the game, however I will say this much, and I am no Guru with stats however..... Tennessee had quite a bit of yardage on offense in the first half, but If I am not mistaken we only had a total of 76 yards in the second half, and 45 of those yards were with our first possession of the second half, I believe the next 5 possessions for us created 12 yards of positive movement of the pigskin. Something is wrong with that, or is it just me? Someone for sure made a change in the second half.. and they were not wearing Orange/white:ermm:
 
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#124
#124
Can you imagine Coach Bear Bryant or Coach Lombardi calling a game based on an analytic calculation...This is the singularly stupidest thing in a football press conference I have ever heard of. And we're suppose to buy this bs.

The game of football is not won based on a computer program, but by sweat, guts, and blood on the grass. And a little confidence in your players too.
 
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#125
#125
GLDunlap said:
The analytics also show that Medley is 1 for 8 in his career from 40-49 yards? Why is he even kicking from 48 yards?
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Why hasn't this been talked about more?

It made the third down play call absolute nonsense to play for a 40+ field goal. Amazing what happens to some kickers when the lights are on. He is evidently 50/51 from 60 yards in practice.

I said it was time to snap and clear, so I've got to stop reading VolNation for the remainder of the week.
 
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