"Analytics"

#26
#26
volfan1988 said:
Look at it this way:
They go for it don't get it and OU goes down the field and scores. Everyone would be saying that was a stupid play call and should have just kicked the FG. Its a lose-lose situation.
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Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think the masses would question going for it early on in a game that we were predicted to lose.
 
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#29
#29
lonelawyer said:
CBJ said that analytics went into the decision to kick the field goal from the 8 inch line. 4 or 5 hours of planning.
He says that the coaching staff leaves nothing to chance.

I believe CBJ is a good coach and is on the right track, but do any of you agree that relying too much on such logical analysis handicaps you in game situations.

Mr. Spock made an excellent science officer but...
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Analytics= "My Alpha Male Instincts were left at home on the dresser beside my Blood Pressure Meds."
 
#30
#30
WesternKyVol said:
Butch is making stuff up:

ESPN.com: NFL - Fourth-down analysis met with skepticism
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The NFL isn't college. Even the worst NFL teams are much better trained than any college team, and the offense always has the advantage ubless it makes a mistake. College teams are much more likely to make mistakes than NFL. And if the UT coaches are using analytics correctly they will have data specific to the team. If they went for it and missed there would not have been an overtime.

I dont know if it was the right decision, but the coaches certainly know more and have thought about it more than you knuckleheads. Judge the team on its total performance and the full context, not one play.

That being said, I would have preferred to see an overall more aggressive game plan than what they executed.
 
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#31
#31
orange parmejohn said:
Oh absolutely. He pretty much insinuated that fans are clueless about how football works. Just amazing.
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He's walking a thin line with that line of thinking. The fan base will turn on him in a heart beat with that kind of talk, especially with the results on the field being what they are.

I'm not sure there's anyone that are "professional" coaches in this country that would agree with the steaming pile of BS that came from our offensive coaching staff Saturday night. It's just positively infuriating to watch a second time.

I'm hopeful and behind this team, but I'm not wearing the Butch colored glasses any longer. Pull the plug on Debord and start playing the game.
 
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#32
#32
Jeepkuntry said:
Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think the masses would question going for it early on in a game that we were predicted to lose.
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the masses would yell that we were picked to lose and that they can't believe that the coach would give away any points, when the assumption is that points will be at a premium
 
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#33
#33
1569 said:
The NFL isn't college. Even the worst NFL teams are much better trained than any college team, and the offense always has the advantage ubless it makes a mistake. College teams are much more likely to make mistakes than NFL. And if the UT coaches are using analytics correctly they will have data specific to the team. If they went for it and missed there would not have been an overtime.

I dont know if it was the right decision, but the coaches certainly know more and have thought about it more than you knuckleheads. Judge the team on its total performance and the full context, not one play.

That being said, I would have preferred to see an overall more aggressive game plan than what they executed.
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I've steered clear of this call since it happened. At the time I was wondering how in the heck you don't go for it there with Hurd, but I can understand why you go for the points there- IF you keep the throttle open and keep taking it to the other team.

What makes me question that call is the decision to go conservative and run the same plays over and over again in the second half. If that was the plan all along, I don't see how you don't go for it and get those points.
 
#34
#34
It is unlikely that a competent mathematical analysis would yield the answer that the goal line cannot be reached often enough from that range to make a 4th down attempt worthwhile. If you scored a TD 43 out of 100 times on 4th down, that would be a higher average point yield than 100 of 100 field goals. This is discounting the possibility of a safety or other field position advantages garnered even if you fall short on 4th down.

This team will continue to lose close games until this coaching staff develops a goal line package to overwhelm defenses at the point of attack in short yardage situations.

Sadly, even Derek Dooley had excellent packages for these situations. I am all for the spread game, but we need a different look at the goal line. I thought this was one area that Debord was brought in to fix. Apparently not.
 
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#35
#35
peyton4heisman said:
Do analytics say that your sub-200 lb running back has a better chance from the 1 up the middle than your 242 lb back on 3rd down?
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This was actually one of the things that bothered me the most. I justified it by thinking maybe our coaches were trying to fool the defense by not putting Hurd back there when EVERYONE else in the stadium knew that's what you should do.
 
#36
#36
Did Analytics tell Butch to sub Kamara for Hurd on 3rd down to run up the middle? If so, he needs to fire his stat guy.
 
#38
#38
Butch's conservatism cost us 4 points there. I think 80% of coaches would go for it in that situation. And I think 90% of coaches would go with the 6-4 240 bruiser on 3rd down instead of the 5'11 215 lb speedster.

It's sort of like the Marshawn Lynch deal last year at the Super Bowl. Why would you even consider passing it or giving it to someone else when you have Marshawn Lynch at your disposal on the 1 yard line? Jalen Hurd from the 1 is about as sure as you can get at the collegiant level.
 
#39
#39
Jeepkuntry said:
Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think the masses would question going for it early on in a game that we were predicted to lose.
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By the comments left by the posters on this board I would think we just lost to Temple, Toledo, or just went into double OT against J-State.
 
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#41
#41
I have not talked with anyone who thought that it was a good idea to kick that field goal except Butch Jones. You know you don't have the depth, many young players on the field and offensive line problems so 3 points means nothing. You go for it and leave them on the 1 yard line in a hostile environment. Part of learning how to win I guess.
 
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#42
#42
volfan1988 said:
Look at it this way:
They go for it don't get it and OU goes down the field and scores. Everyone would be saying that was a stupid play call and should have just kicked the FG. Its a lose-lose situation.
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Or UT fumbles and the Sooners return it for a TD. There were more important plays later in the game that was not made I was upset about. I am still pulling for the players and coaches to learn and improve from this game and win 8 or more this year.
 
#43
#43
In a pick-em contest with such evenly matched teams, i think you ALWAYS go for the points instead of the gamble. That's me though. I'm conservative and try to manage exposure to risk. Against a superior opponent, like Bama, go for it on fourth because you got nothing to lose.
 
#44
#44
McDad said:
In a pick-em contest with such evenly matched teams, i think you ALWAYS go for the points instead of the gamble. That's me though. I'm conservative and try to manage exposure to risk. Against a superior opponent, like Bama, go for it on fourth because you got nothing to lose.
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What did we have to lose on Saturday???
 
#45
#45
macrovol said:
Playing the odds is better than playing a hunch in the long run.
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With a name like macrovol I could see why you would say that. By the nature of odds, they can change. And it wasn't better. In fact, playing the odds told his offense that he doesn't trust them or won't take a chance on them. And in the end, math lost.
 
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#46
#46
Wasn't a fan of probability and statistics and it's probably a miracle that I even passed the class, but as I look at this it seems obvious. Does our coaching staff really trust Medley to make a field goal over Hurd's ability to score from the 1/2 yard line? Medleys not exactly been Mr. Reliable. I cringe every time I see Medley line up for a field goal or even an extra point right now.
 
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#47
#47
CO4V_k_WIAAPgWY.jpg


Retweeted by @daniel_hood5855
 
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#48
#48
bjsvols1 said:
Hearing this is what bothered me the most about the coaching Saturday. It's always easy to blame the coaches, but even though their play calling lacked aggression, this was the perfect storm of things going wrong: Alex Ellis dropped sure TD pass, offensive penalties, Hurd's fumble, Pearson falling down on a counter with room to run, phantom defensive holding penalties, etc. etc.

However, not going for it on 4th down and using the reasoning against as analytics is BS. I'm all for using probabilities 90% of the time, but big time coaches in big games, have to take chances on the fly. Sometimes you just have to say **ck it, we're going to kick your butt and run you right over with our best. We have the players to do this now. Butch needs to take notice and do it.

Stoops did it in the end with Shepard - and it worked. Same thing with the WR's. Use your best- establish a go to guy and throw him the dang ball. The analytics crap is BS if you want to win championships.
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Agree, except this is not the perfect storm. We had field position all day and you have to take advantage of it and put teams away. of course when you're one dimensional (no pass threat) it does make you predictable. Maybe you could use the receivers for blockers ( tongue-in-cheek).
 
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