Analytics Expert pick UT to win BIG

#76
#76
BeardedVol said:
VT spotted us short field advantage on half the points we put up. It's not like drove down the field 80 yards to score against the VT defense for every single touchdown.

The truth is that VT's inept ball-handling that night put their defense in a terrible position. and we capitalized on it. Kudos to coaching for being able to get points off of the turnovers, but that still doesn't wipe away the overall abysmal offensive production so far this season.
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Don't forget Tennessee caused 4 of the 5 fumbles. One was a bad snap.
 
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#77
#77
So we have an 80% chance of winning 89% of the time. I think that's good, but I'm going to get the calculator to be sure.
 
#79
#79
Phil Steele has us winning by 13. Saw it while lurking over on the reptile board.



Phil Steele

I had Tennessee over Virginia Tech two weeks ago, and after a rough first quarter in which the Volunteers trailed 14-0, they came back to deliver the win. That looks even better now after Virginia Tech beat Boston College 49-0. In Week 3, I had Ohio plus four touchdowns, as Tennessee was in a massive flat spot, having just played in front of 156,000 fans and having four huge games on deck. It was an enjoyable game for me to watch. This week, I am back on the Vols.

Florida has perhaps the best defense in the country and is holding opponents to 286 yards below their season average and to just 130 total yards per game, but the Gators have taken on three flawed offenses. I am concerned about how Tennessee's offensive line, which has allowed seven sacks, will perform against a Florida defense that has recorded 16 sacks in just three games. Senior quarterback Joshua Dobbs' mobility will help. On the flip side, Tennessee has my No. 15-rated defense, holding foes to 116 yards per game, but it will be without cornerback Cameron Sutton. Tennessee does have a solid edge on offense, and Florida will be without quarterback Luke Del Rio.

The Vols led 27-14 last season and were in control, but they fell apart late on the road, allowing a 63-yard touchdown on fourth-and-long after a short pass with 1:45 left. Yes, I know that Florida has won 11 in a row in the series, but that makes this one of the most important games of the year for the home team.

ATS pick: Tennessee

Score: Tennessee 23, Florida 10
 
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#81
#81
BeardedVol said:
VT spotted us short field advantage on half the points we put up. It's not like drove down the field 80 yards to score against the VT defense for every single touchdown.

The truth is that VT's inept ball-handling that night put their defense in a terrible position. and we capitalized on it. Kudos to coaching for being able to get points off of the turnovers, but that still doesn't wipe away the overall abysmal offensive production so far this season.
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BS. In the second quarter we drove 90 yards and scored in 4 plays. We also racked up 17 unanswered points in 8 minutes with 0 turnovers. After that - they crapped the bed. Leave the VT game alone as the one we played well. App state and Ohio leave plenty of fodder for negativity.
 
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#82
#82
cherokeechief said:
One week, pick every single game. You'd be surprised how many easy ones there are. Taking points? All together different. But picking the winner. You'll get more than 80 percent.

All that said, Tennessee wins this week.
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You can't prove this with Freak's weekly pick contest.
 
#86
#86
90 Vol said:
I hope this ain't the same analytics dude that Butch subscribes to.
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#88
#88
DD4ME said:
BS. In the second quarter we drove 90 yards and scored in 4 plays. We also racked up 17 unanswered points in 8 minutes with 0 turnovers. After that - they crapped the bed. Leave the VT game alone as the one we played well. App state and Ohio leave plenty of fodder for negativity.
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For real.

Outside of the first quarter, we completely and totally dominated Tech. Not sure why people are pissing and moaning about them handing us the game, because from my seats, our defense handed them their asses and our offense executed when it needed to.
 
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#90
#90
Just like I said I have a feeling that there is blood in the water and The vols will be ready to pounce .
 
#91
#91
DD4ME said:
BS. In the second quarter we drove 90 yards and scored in 4 plays. We also racked up 17 unanswered points in 8 minutes with 0 turnovers. After that - they crapped the bed. Leave the VT game alone as the one we played well. App state and Ohio leave plenty of fodder for negativity.
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They came out playing like they should against Ohio but when all the leaders start getting hurt it can mess with a team and the vols of past would have let that beat them but they gritted it out and won that game. App st just played out there mind and the vols played bad but look we are 3-0 and ready to take it to the gators.
 
#92
#92
Bump...


Prediction has us beating Georgia 25-20 with a win probability of 63%

BCF Toys - 2016 Game Projections

Although he predicted us beating Florida 30-12, I don't think his prediction was that far off. Minus the fluke inability for our receivers to catch in the first half and the score prediction was much closer than meets the eye.
 
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#93
#93
VOL 4 Life 83 said:
Bump...


Prediction has us beating Georgia 25-20 with a win probability of 63%

BCF Toys - 2016 Game Projections

Although he predicted us beating Florida 30-12, I don't think his prediction was that far off. Minus the fluke inability for our receivers to catch in the first half and the score prediction was much closer than meets the eye.
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Odd: it shows greater chance of a moderate win than a narrow win, but predicted score is within the narrow win range.
 
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