Am I the only one who doesn't understand the confidence around Alabama this year?

[vavolfan6]

You aren't the only one. I agree and think Bama is headed for a another down year by their usual standards. I have absolutley no faith in Ty Simpson to be the QB that Deboar needs in his system. I really wouldn't be surprised if he is benched midseason.

Also, I question Deboar's ability to scheme the run game, something that is a near necessity to succeed in the SEC. Maybe in the Big 12 or Pac 12 you could ignore the run game, but not in the SEC. And if you look at the statistics of his past teams they were pass heavy and did not produce much rushing the ball.

Lastly, Deboar did not have his team ready on the road. They lost to two 6-6 teams in Vandy and Oklahoma. Between Mizzou, Georgia, Auburn, and South Carolina, I could see them dropping at least two of those games.

So 8-4 is entirely possible. And if Simpson is bad Bana could drop some home games too. Oklahoma, Tennessee, and LSU. They at least lose one of them. So that's 3 losses. And somewhere along the way thet also get a 4th loss.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Because Alabama has a blue chip index of 89% and their staff (while new) is not stupid.

Lots of talented teams have been bad before. And you have no clue if Deboer is any good. He could easily be another Jimbo Fisher. A guy who had success outside the SEC but struggled in it.

 

[OffTackleVol]

I'm seeing lots of so-called experts predicting they make the SEC Championship Game this year. Its almost a given to all the experts that they make the playoffs. I know they have an elite team on paper but lots of teams with great recruiting have been bad. See Texas before Sark and Texas A&M under Jimbo.

I have a feeling Alabama is set for a downturn. The days of being elite are obviously over. But I don't think its crazy to think they might be returning to the Brody Croyle days. I could easily see Alabama going 8-4 this year.

I'm predicting 9-3 for the tree-killers, tea-baggers, sucker-punchers..........

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

I'm seeing lots of so-called experts predicting they make the SEC Championship Game this year. Its almost a given to all the experts that they make the playoffs. I know they have an elite team on paper but lots of teams with great recruiting have been bad. See Texas before Sark and Texas A&M under Jimbo.

I have a feeling Alabama is set for a downturn. The days of being elite are obviously over. But I don't think its crazy to think they might be returning to the Brody Croyle days. I could easily see Alabama going 8-4 this year.

Congrats on the natty @bamawriter....

 

[Volfanstucknga]

Guess we'll see. I very surprised by the level of confidence Tennessee fans have in Alabama. I think its been about the coach more than the program in Tuscaloosa. I expect a regression back to the mean.

Hate and naivety are two different things. We can hate Bama, but to think they will suck because of hate is totally absurd.

 

[The_topis_Rocky89]

I'm seeing lots of so-called experts predicting they make the SEC Championship Game this year. Its almost a given to all the experts that they make the playoffs. I know they have an elite team on paper but lots of teams with great recruiting have been bad. See Texas before Sark and Texas A&M under Jimbo.

I have a feeling Alabama is set for a downturn. The days of being elite are obviously over. But I don't think its crazy to think they might be returning to the Brody Croyle days. I could easily see Alabama going 8-4 this year.

I think they will be lucky for that. This is a much different era of football. Bama has a very high turnover/transfer rate and a coach that honestly isn’t a fit in the league. How many West Cost guys outside of Kiffin have been successful here. Plus the defense was not good last year how has that changed.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Hate and naivety are two different things. We can hate Bama, but to think they will suck because of hate is totally absurd.

Saban isn't there anymore. They were trash before Saban. Why is not reasonable to think they could be trash again?

No program remains great forever. I remember when USC was unbeatable under Pete Carroll. Then they became a joke. Its not like USC fell off tremendously in recruiting. They just weren't good anymore after their legendary coach left.

I think the same thing will happen to Alabama. They don't need to struggle in recruiting to become bad. Lack of an elite coach can damage your program even if on paper you still have talent.

 

[bamawriter]

I think they will be lucky for that. This is a much different era of football. Bama has a very high turnover/transfer rate and a coach that honestly isn’t a fit in the league. How many West Cost guys outside of Kiffin have been successful here. Plus the defense was not good last year how has that changed.

By the end of the year the defense was really good. Outside of the Vandy game, none of Bama's losses were because of the defense. They finished 4th in the SEC in scoring defense and 1st in turnovers forced.

 

[05_never_again]

Saban isn't there anymore. They were trash before Saban. Why is not reasonable to think they could be trash again?

No program remains great forever. I remember when USC was unbeatable under Pete Carroll. Then they became a joke. Its not like USC fell off tremendously in recruiting. They just weren't good anymore after their legendary coach left.

I think the same thing will happen to Alabama. They don't need to struggle in recruiting to become bad. Lack of an elite coach can damage your program even if on paper you still have talent.

USC also was in big NCAA trouble after Carroll left and doesn't have the institutional commitment to football like Alabama or most other SEC schools. I think they've gotten more serious since hiring Lincoln Riley (although that doesn't appear to be working out all that well), but there for a while USC made a series of easy, kind of lazy insular hires at football coach and AD that didn't work out. I don't think DeBoer is an immature punk like Kiffin was at that time, and kind of still is.

They will regress (and already have) because nobody else is Nick Saban. However you don't have to go 12-0 or 11-1 with the Heisman Trophy winner to win a national title (or have a good chance to win a title) in the CFP era. Under DeBoer, I imagine they'll be either almost in or in the playoff every year. I don't think he's going to have years there where he goes 6-6 or 7-5. The real question is how much tolerance will their fans have for not making the CFP occasionally, or getting bounced early in the CFP.

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

I actually kinda agree. I think Bama will be talented enough for a 10 win season, but I do not see them as the juggernaut they once were.

Looking at their schedule: its tough. Georgia, Auburn, and even SCAR on the road will be a challenge. Then you have some wildcard road games in Florida State and Mizzou, that Bama should win on talent alone, but clearly last year they were not prepared for road games.

DeBoer is a good coach, so he certainly can still get established in Tuscaloosa, but I still have some doubts. Similar criticism can be stated about him as Heupel: is he a good QB developer, or did he hitch his wagon to a superstar in Penix (Heupel to Hooker comparison). Ty Simpson is a huge question mark, and I think their defense has lost some of its teeth since Saban left.

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

By the end of the year the defense was really good. Outside of the Vandy game, none of Bama's losses were because of the defense. They finished 4th in the SEC in scoring defense and 1st in turnovers forced.

Umm, OU? Oklahoma's offense was defunct and scored 24 points lol.

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

Saban isn't there anymore. They were trash before Saban. Why is not reasonable to think they could be trash again?

No program remains great forever. I remember when USC was unbeatable under Pete Carroll. Then they became a joke. Its not like USC fell off tremendously in recruiting. They just weren't good anymore after their legendary coach left.

I think the same thing will happen to Alabama. They don't need to struggle in recruiting to become bad. Lack of an elite coach can damage your program even if on paper you still have talent.

Also Carroll was cheating and got the big job in Seattle before the consequences caught up to him.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

USC also was in big NCAA trouble after Carroll left and doesn't have the institutional commitment to football like Alabama or most other SEC schools. I think they've gotten more serious since hiring Lincoln Riley (although that doesn't appear to be working out all that well), but there for a while USC made a series of easy, kind of lazy insular hires at football coach and AD that didn't work out. I don't think DeBoer is an immature punk like Kiffin was at that time, and kind of still is.

They will regress (and already have) because nobody else is Nick Saban. However you don't have to go 12-0 or 11-1 with the Heisman Trophy winner to win a national title (or have a good chance to win a title) in the CFP era. Under DeBoer, I imagine they'll be either almost in or in the playoff every year. I don't think he's going to have years there where he goes 6-6 or 7-5. The real question is how much tolerance will their fans have for not making the CFP occasionally, or getting bounced early in the CFP.

Or DeBoer is not a good coach like the guys at Alabama before Saban. I don't know why yall think Alabama can't be terrible once again? If history has taught us anything is that nobody stays on top forever.

 

[Dobbs 4 Heisman]

Also Carroll was cheating and got the big job in Seattle before the consequences caught up to him.

You don't think Saban was also paying players before NIL? Where do you think Pruitt learned it from?

 

[n_huffhines]

Lots of talented teams have been bad before. And you have no clue if Deboer is any good. He could easily be another Jimbo Fisher. A guy who had success outside the SEC but struggled in it.

IDK why you doubt him this much, tho. He's not going to keep up the Saban dynasty, but he has a loaded roster, and he's at least competent.

Jimbo Fisher won a natty. He won 73% of his games. Yeah, TAMU didn't go great. Deboer isn't taking over at TAMU. He's taking over at Bama. Jimbo was a good enough coach to win a couple if he were in Deboer's position.

It wasn't ideal last year, but he stepped in and almost made the playoff. He's an X's and O's guy and his QB last year couldn't reliably throw over the middle of the field. I am interested to see what he can do with these WR's and a QB who ought to be able to run a normal offense.

 

[bamawriter]

Umm, OU? Oklahoma's offense was defunct and scored 24 points lol.

OU had a pick six and an interception return to the Bama 14. How is that on the defense?

 

[Nico ee-ah-MAH-LAY-ah-va]

OU had a pick six and an interception return to the Bama 14. How is that on the defense?

325 yards allowed, 18 first downs, and a 34:11 TOP are all sucky stats for a "great" defense. Sure, they are not responsible for 7 of the the 24, but they certainly didn't do much else either.

 

[bamawriter]

325 yards allowed, 18 first downs, and a 34:11 TOP are all sucky stats for a "great" defense. Sure, they are not responsible for 7 of the the 24, but they certainly didn't do much else either.

14 of the 24. The defense allowed 2 scoring drives for 10 points. It wasn't a great performance, but the offense (specifically Milroe) put the defense in a terrible spot all day. Same thing happened against Michigan. UM's first 13 points required less than 30 total yards.

 

[miket4god]

You don't think Saban was also paying players before NIL? Where do you think Pruitt learned it from?

The point wasn't the cheating it was the consequences of the cheating. USC got ripped when Carroll left.
bama got nothing when Saban left.

 

[05_never_again]

Or DeBoer is not a good coach like the guys at Alabama before Saban. I don't know why yall think Alabama can't be terrible once again? If history has taught us anything is that nobody stays on top forever.

You don't think DeBoer is a better coach than Shula, Mike Price, Fran, or DuBose? I don't know anybody in here who has said that Alabama will stay "on top" forever. In fact, I've always said to the contrary. Nobody, I don't care how good of a coach they are, was going to keep up the level of success they had under Saban.

Similar to USC after Carroll left, one of the things that got Alabama in trouble after Bear retired was that they got very insular and only hired guys for a long time who had previous ties to Alabama or to Bryant himself. DeBoer might end up not being a great coach, but they've already veered far from making that same mistake. They also were in a lot of NCAA trouble (also similar to USC) in the late 90s and early 2000s, which, let's face it, isn't going to happen again because of how the landscape has changed.

 

[Sivad]

While I agree that Bama should be pretty good this year, to be blunt-the dynasty is over. They will most likely just be another team who "could" win it all.

Bama lost a great deal when Saban left in terms of younger players transferring. They knew the deal with Saban-basically ride the pine for two years keeping your Ps and Qs in order then have a huge 3rd year and get drafted in the first round

DeBoer doesn't have that pedigree yet

He has recruited quite well, but has it been on the same level as Saban-nope.

Once you reach a certain level, base talent is what separates the men from the boys in many cases. We saw that last year vs Ohio State. We were a very good team last year but they threw us around like toddlers.

Bama will remain a 9-3 or 10-2 type team for a few years, DeBoer will get fired, and they will try to recreate the magic

This right here . It’s very difficult to almost impossible to follow a coach like Saban. Bama may do but I believe they’ll just miss for the next few years then DeBoer will be gone

 

[jasonvol18]

Second season for Debore. Usually the second year or third year is where great coaches have big success. Debore is a very good coach. Last season was a big adjustment for him and a transition from the Saban era it’s understandable that there was some hiccups along the way. I believe Bama will be a much more consistent and better team this season and they still have alot of talent on the roster and i don’t think they lost anybody in the portal which is crazy. Also Debore’s former OC at Washington is back with him now so i think that could be a huge difference from last season and Milroe never really fit in Debores offense but he was just stuck with him last season. I expect Bama to be back in the playoff and if they aren’t then Debore will definitely be feeling some heat.

ONLY thing is, Ala had the most talented roster in CFB. There's absolutely no excuse to lose to 3 unranked teams and to get blown out against a depleted Oklahoma. I'd understand if they had lost to LSU,GA,Mizzou and TN...But to 3 unranked teams is inexcusable

 

[jasonvol18]

Because Alabama has a blue chip index of 89% and their staff (while new) is not stupid.

They didn't look very smart last year.

 

[Wireless1]

Bama has a very favorable schedule facing us, LSU and OK at home with the only other real contest being UGA on the road. Now they can lay an egg against inferior foe like they did last year but I'm betting not. The question is, does it take 11-1 to get in the championship game or is it possible to get there at 10-2?

 

[GVF]

Second season for Debore. Usually the second year or third year is where great coaches have big success. Debore is a very good coach. Last season was a big adjustment for him and a transition from the Saban era it’s understandable that there was some hiccups along the way. I believe Bama will be a much more consistent and better team this season and they still have alot of talent on the roster and i don’t think they lost anybody in the portal which is crazy. Also Debore’s former OC at Washington is back with him now so i think that could be a huge difference from last season and Milroe never really fit in Debores offense but he was just stuck with him last season. I expect Bama to be back in the playoff and if they aren’t then Debore will definitely be feeling some heat.

Agreed, but not sure he has the right QB yet. But, any HC in the country willing to be the first post-Saban coach has grande cahonas.