All things STOCKS

[Vol737]

Talks in Pakistan called off over the weekend. See what the market does on Monday.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Talks in Pakistan called off over the weekend. See what the market does on Monday.

It could be a blip (buying opportunity) on markets, but Iran is losing $3 billion a week in revenue.,It’s not sustainable. For them. We’ve got a boot on their throat without bombing them. Time is on our side, not theirs. Their options are (1) unconditional surrender or (2) they can hold out while their economy gets destroyed.

 

[kiddiedoc]

It could be a blip (buying opportunity) on markets, but Iran is losing $3 billion a week in revenue.,It’s not sustainable. For them. We’ve got a boot on their throat without bombing them. Time is on our side, not theirs. Their options are (1) unconditional surrender or (2) they can hold out while their economy gets destroyed.

Markets the past 2 weeks certainly agree with you. If/when they cave, we could see a bull run, for sure.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

I think playing with small and mid caps (despite only using 15-20% of my brokerage to do so) has engineered me to hate a Monday with flat indices futures more than red or green ones.

Red futures mean there will be a great opportunity to sell well timed puts, where green ones present a great covered call opportunity. Flats mean I'll be setting a dozen or so alerts and more screen time.

 

[InVOLuntary]

I'm seeing several outlets mentioning that Palantir would be a good purchase right now before May 4. I'm thinking that earnings are reported on the 4th. I own a little. What are everyone's thoughts on Palantir?

 

[Go aeiou]

I'm seeing several outlets mentioning that Palantir would be a good purchase right now before May 4. I'm thinking that earnings are reported on the 4th. I own a little. What are everyone's thoughts on Palantir?

Shady

 

[Majors]

Good to finally seeing NVDA running past $200. Months of no action was concerning.

 

[05_never_again]

Good to finally seeing NVDA running past $200. Months of no action was concerning.

Those kinds of consolidations are healthy and you want to see them in a long-term uptrend though. This break to the upside (it does need to get meaningfully above the old high and hold though) would seem to suggest that there's another big move up on the way; bodes well for the broader market too.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I'm seeing several outlets mentioning that Palantir would be a good purchase right now before May 4. I'm thinking that earnings are reported on the 4th. I own a little. What are everyone's thoughts on Palantir?

I think it has a great business. Revenues are growing at a crazy rate. Their customer base and product lines are also growing like crazy. What they sell makes their customers operate far more efficiently. They are diversifying beyond defense. The margins are huge.

IMO the biggest obstacle that they face is that the general public is suspicious of them potentially abusing their right of privacy.

The CEO is an odd bird (Alex Karp) but also a genius.

The chairman (Peter Thiel) has been highly successful as a founder of PayPal and was an early investor in Facebook.

The business is great. The question is what is a fair valuation relative to sales and earners? Those multiples have been some of the highest in the history of Wall Street.

 

[05_never_again]

I think it has a great business. Revenues are growing at a crazy rate. Their customer base and product lines are also growing like crazy. What they sell makes their customers operate far more efficiently. They are diversifying beyond defense. The margins are huge.

IMO the biggest obstacle that they face is that the general public is suspicious of them potentially abusing their right of privacy.

The CEO is an odd bird (Alex Karp) but also a genius.

The chairman (Peter Thiel) has been highly successful as a founder of PayPal and was an early investor in Facebook.

The business is great. The question is what is a fair valuation relative to sales and earners? Those multiples have been some of the highest in the history of Wall Street.

They've also, I think, undoubtedly benefitted from being very close with the current administration. Who is in charge will change at some point.

 

[tn4elvis]

They've also, I think, undoubtedly benefitted from being very close with the current administration. Who is in charge will change at some point.

I love Karp he wild as hell.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

PLTR:
226x earnings ($0.63 EPS)
109x forward earnings

Current share price is $142
52 week range is $101- $208

No dividends

$342B market cap

Price/sales: 76.4x last 4 quarters
1 year sales growth: 56.2% (S & P: 15.6x)

Zero debt

Not a stock for grandma. Buying 100 shares for about $15,000 and selling covered calls should provide a decent return. The 5/29 $150 calls are priced at $7.2/$7.4 (about $700, or around 5% for about 30 days).

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

They've also, I think, undoubtedly benefitted from being very close with the current administration. Who is in charge will change at some point.

But it shouldn’t matter if putting pencil to paper shows that their customers increase their profitability by purchasing their services. Plus the foreign markets and commercial customers could be huge opportunities. Also non-defense based federal contracts.

 

[05_never_again]

But it shouldn’t matter if putting pencil to paper shows that their customers increase their profitability by purchasing their services. Plus the foreign markets and commercial customers could be huge opportunities. Also non-defense based federal contracts.

It still is a pretty big political risk. There is potential political hay to be made for a politician to break ties with them. They still have revenue opportunities other areas obviously, but the federal government is a huge one.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

It still is a pretty big political risk. There is potential political hay to be made for a politician to break ties with them. They still have revenue opportunities other areas obviously, but the federal government is a huge one.

I don’t think that the political risk should be greater than it is for any other defense contractor. If the defense budget is slashed they will feel it.

I don’t believe that individual politicians, even the POTUS, are that deep into micro managing contracts that are executed by the DoD/DoW. And if PLTR can prove that their product saves money, then it would be really stupid for a politician to target them because of Trump.

Again. It’s not a stock for grandma. Or a large portion of the kid’s college fund. But allocating a portion of capital into PLTR with the understanding that it’s a high risk/high reward type of equity could be appropriate for some that might want to be long shares. The skeptics can buy puts. It’s almost 100% guaranteed to be a volatile holding (with large premiums available on the options).

 

[InVOLuntary]

I don’t think that the political risk should be greater than it is for any other defense contractor. If the defense budget is slashed they will feel it.

I don’t believe that individual politicians, even the POTUS, are that deep into micro managing contracts that are executed by the DoD/DoW. And if PLTR can prove that their product saves money, then it would be really stupid for a politician to target them because of Trump.

Again. It’s not a stock for grandma. Or a large portion of the kid’s college fund. But allocating a portion of capital into PLTR with the understanding that it’s a high risk/high reward type of equity could be appropriate for some that might want to be long shares. The skeptics can buy puts. It’s almost 100% guaranteed to be a volatile holding (with large premiums available on the options).

What are you calling long?

 

[Jax_Vol]

PLTR:
226x earnings ($0.63 EPS)
109x forward earnings

Current share price is $142
52 week range is $101- $208

No dividends

$342B market cap

Price/sales: 76.4x last 4 quarters
1 year sales growth: 56.2% (S & P: 15.6x)

Zero debt

Not a stock for grandma. Buying 100 shares for about $15,000 and selling covered calls should provide a decent return. The 5/29 $150 calls are priced at $7.2/$7.4 (about $700, or around 5% for about 30 days).

Like most people, I love their leadership.

But, still thinking it is overpriced for now. I'll roll the dice and say it hits $125 again before it regains $150.

Will probably be eating those words tomorrow.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

Like most people, I love their leadership.

But, still thinking it is overpriced for now. I'll roll the dice and say it hits $125 again before it regains $150.

Will probably be eating those words tomorrow.

Bold prediction. I like it! I'm going to set respectively price alerts on those and remind you, haha.

it's one more bad week from hitting a decent entry for my wheel and they report on the 4th.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

What are you calling long?

“Long PLTR shares”. Owning shares of PLTR stock. Or alternatively obtaining similarly themed equity position exposure by owning call option contracts with PLTR as the underlying shares. Or possibly best of all, selling put option contracts on PLTR and either pocket the proceeds from selling the contract(s) if shares go up in value -or- obtain the shares at a better price if shares lose value.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Bold prediction. I like it! I'm going to set respectively price alerts on those and remind you, haha.

it's one more bad week from hitting a decent entry for my wheel and they report on the 4th.

I'm 0-for-April so you are the bold man!

I may be overly influenced by this article. I enjoyed The Big Short book, but don't pay much attention to Michael Burry's advice.

Michael Burry says Anthropic is 'eating Palantir's lunch' as enterprise AI spending shifts

Palantir's stock is down. Michael Burry said Wednesday that Anthropic's rapid rise is a threat to Palantir as enterprise AI spending shifts.

www.businessinsider.com

Didn't know they report on the 4th. Always an entertaining discussion of smoke and mirrors.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

I'm 0-for-April so you are the bold man!

I may be overly influenced by this article. I enjoyed The Big Short book, but don't pay much attention to Michael Burry's advice.

Michael Burry says Anthropic is 'eating Palantir's lunch' as enterprise AI spending shifts

Palantir's stock is down. Michael Burry said Wednesday that Anthropic's rapid rise is a threat to Palantir as enterprise AI spending shifts.

www.businessinsider.com

Didn't know they report on the 4th. Always an entertaining discussion of smoke and mirrors.

I pay about as much attention to what Burry says as Cathie Dramatically Underperforming Wood...

 

[Jax_Vol]

I pay about as much attention to what Burry says as Cathie Dramatically Underperforming Wood...

Cathie is a hot mess.

With that said, isn't she outperforming the market this year?

I'm probably wrong as usual.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Cathie is a hot mess.

With that said, isn't she outperforming the market this year?

I'm probably wrong as usual.

Honestly, I dont know. She's underperformed by such a wide margin for a long time I dont understand why anybody pays her any attention...

Her biggest skill isnt running a fund but convincing investors that she's good at it.....

I just checked. ARKW is down nearly 10% YTD. The QQQ and other benchmarks are up nearly 10%...

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

The QQQ has doubled the past 5 years. Other innovation heavy benchmarks have done better than that.

ARKW is down 7% in that same timeframe.

 

[05_never_again]

Cathie is a hot mess.

With that said, isn't she outperforming the market this year?

I'm probably wrong as usual.

She's OK as analyst, but a horrific risk manager. Which is job #1 if you're allocating capital.

She poured into a handful of names at stratospheric valuations in 2020 and 2021 and, surprise, her returns after that haven't been great. Admittedly, she was also in those names before they began ramping, so she was right about them, but she just managed risk horrifically after that.