All things STOCKS

#20,156
#20,156
Someone out there is currently loading the boat. Receiving alarms on 10 or 12 different stocks I follow that show unusual activity in the upward direction.

Logic would have one think that people will dump late today.
 
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#20,158
#20,158
It's interesting to me how oil has largely recovered its losses after the Iran/Oman announcement, but equities haven't given back the rally. Equities were also rallying before that announcement anyway
 
#20,161
#20,161
DinkinFlicka said:
Barring any big news over the weekend (lol, riiiight), we may be poised to rally next week.

I think I got assigned on my SOFI puts at a good time last week.
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That is probably what will happen.

I was so stunned that people held into this specific 3-day weekend, I went 60% cash.

Whenever I pull a kneejerk reaction like that historically means we have bounced off the bottom. And, I pay more to re-enter the game.
 
#20,162
#20,162
Jax_Vol said:
That is probably what will happen.

I was so stunned that people held into this specific 3-day weekend, I went 60% cash.

Whenever I pull a kneejerk reaction like that historically means we have bounced off the bottom. And, I pay more to re-enter the game.
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If you still feel conviction come Sunday, set your alarm to Monday's pre-market 🤣
 
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#20,165
#20,165
Jax_Vol said:
What are we thinking peeps?

I think the market is about to fluctuate.
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I’m thinking what Iran does is the most significant variable. We know that they’re either going to accept a very difficult (for them) deal or they will get destroyed tonight.

It’s really unpredictable since the IRGC is in charge and their revenue stream is significant. We can shut down their oil money, but they also do very well financially with their smuggling operations.

I’m mostly worried about knocking out their ability to generate electricity. 90 million people without power would be a massive humanitarian catastrophe.
 
#20,166
#20,166
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I’m thinking what Iran does is the most significant variable. We know that they’re either going to accept a very difficult (for them) deal or they will get destroyed tonight.

It’s really unpredictable since the IRGC is in charge and their revenue stream is significant. We can shut down their oil money, but they also do very well financially with their smuggling operations.

I’m mostly worried about knocking out their ability to generate electricity. 90 million people without power would be a massive humanitarian catastrophe.
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Question will be who blinks first. My guess is Iran will make some nominal negotiation effort today and that will be enough for Trump to kick the can down the road again...
 
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#20,167
#20,167
BigOrangeMojo said:
Question will be who blinks first. My guess is Iran will make some nominal negotiation effort today and that will be enough for Trump to kick the can down the road again...
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I don’t think that Trump will blink. It’s (1) take the deal (15 points?) or (2) he’s going to knock the **** out of Iran. Unfortunately there will be a lot of innocents that will suffer. Iran is too fragmented to make a sound deal. Tens of thousands of those Mullahs remain after their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc levels have been exterminated. I’ll be shocked if we don’t start blasting them tonight.

But as far as commerce through the Straight goes, I don’t think that is a long term issue. China and Europe need it. We don’t. Actually it is economically beneficial for us if it is shut down. We are a net exporter of oil.
 
#20,168
#20,168
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I don’t think that Trump will blink. It’s (1) take the deal (15 points?) or (2) he’s going to knock the **** out of Iran. Unfortunately there will be a lot of innocents that will suffer. Iran is too fragmented to make a sound deal. Tens of thousands of those Mullahs remain after their 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, etc levels have been exterminated. I’ll be shocked if we don’t start blasting them tonight.

But as far as commerce through the Straight goes, I don’t think that is a long term issue. China and Europe need it. We don’t. Actually it is economically beneficial for us if it is shut down. We are a net exporter of oil.
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He's blinked on the past few ultimatums and right now, Tehran is almost egging him on.

Here are the odds from least to most likely

1. A full fledged deal. For the reasons you stated. (Less than 5%)
2. Power Plant and Bridges Day (Less than 10%)
3. A couple/few targeted strikes(25%)
4. Short term cease fire from some nominal negotiaton movement (65%)
 
#20,169
#20,169
BigOrangeMojo said:
He's blinked on the past few ultimatums and right now, Tehran is almost egging him on.

Here are the odds from least to most likely

1. A full fledged deal. For the reasons you stated. (Less than 5%)
2. Power Plant and Bridges Day (Less than 10%)
3. A couple/few targeted strikes(25%)
4. Short term cease fire from some nominal negotiaton movement (65%)
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Spill it. Who's your numbers guy, nerd?
 
#20,170
#20,170
BigOrangeMojo said:
He's blinked on the past few ultimatums and right now, Tehran is almost egging him on.

Here are the odds from least to most likely

1. A full fledged deal. For the reasons you stated. (Less than 5%)
2. Power Plant and Bridges Day (Less than 10%)
3. A couple/few targeted strikes(25%)
4. Short term cease fire from some nominal negotiaton movement (65%)
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The only blinking will be due to Iran not having a functional government with clear cut leadership.

I don’t think that not bombing their infrastructure into oblivion would be considered blinking. He might take it out in a limited region or city just to show what could happen. But unleashing our military to destroy everything everywhere all at once is most likely a deal point threat. But again… who the eff is in charge now to negotiate with?

The Iranian people really need to step up and take their country. But do they even have a clue what’s happening right now?
 
#20,175
#20,175
Jax_Vol said:
Is what I'm hearing here that either way with Iran won't impact market tomorrow?
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if oil drops and they really do open up the straight then the market will be impacted.

however, in about 5 or less days another anouncment will come out that the 10 point plan is trash and that Iran is going to be destroyed and the market will again fall.

it's a fun game
 
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