All things STOCKS

#20,077
#20,077
I’d say we’re in correction territory at this point. I’m very conservative here. In a lot of cash, mmkt fund, took profits since my stops hit, still in energy…about the only bright spot for now. Gonna stand pat for a while it seems.
 
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#20,078
#20,078
Vol737 said:
I’d say we’re in correction territory at this point. I’m very conservative here. In a lot of cash, mmkt fund, took profits since my stops hit, still in energy…about the only bright spot for now. Gonna stand pat for a while it seems.
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I'm tempted to buy. (I need to sell some because I'm cash poor😐). I think my run for Netflix is over. Bought in low and have kept it for several years. Seems to have topped out.

I have some other, very low risk stuff (wife's conservative mindset. 🙄 I'm approaching retirement but don't need it for the foreseeable future.

I guess my thought process is this is a buying opportunity. I'm not confident it won't go a little lower overall but I think it will bounce back fairly soon.

I've got my white belt in stock trading and I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night but I'm always interested in others opinions.
 
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#20,079
#20,079
InVOLuntary said:
I'm tempted to buy. (I need to sell some because I'm cash poor😐). I think my run for Netflix is over. Bought in low and have kept it for several years. Seems to have topped out.

I have some other, very low risk stuff (wife's conservative mindset. 🙄 I'm approaching retirement but don't need it for the foreseeable future.

I guess my thought process is this is a buying opportunity. I'm not confident it won't go a little lower overall but I think it will bounce back fairly soon.

I've got my white belt in stock trading and I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night but I'm always interested in others opinions.
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Why not sell covered calls instead of shares of NFLX?

$92.42 Friday close.

4/17 $95 ($3.05-$3.15) (27 days, additional 6% plus if shares are called)

7/17 $100 ($5.15-$5.40) (118 days, additional $7.58 plus $5.15 equals about 14%)

Seems like the options contracts are priced for more upside.

I’ve done a 180 on NFLX. I didn’t like their business model of just renting their content. But they tried to buy Time Warner Discovery for their production assets (studios). Plus adding advertising revenue and pushing back on password sharing ought to be good long term strategies. YouTube (GOOGL) is of course a formidable competitor. I would expect AMZN and AAPL to be as well.
 
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#20,080
#20,080
InVOLuntary said:
I'm tempted to buy. (I need to sell some because I'm cash poor😐). I think my run for Netflix is over. Bought in low and have kept it for several years. Seems to have topped out.

I have some other, very low risk stuff (wife's conservative mindset. 🙄 I'm approaching retirement but don't need it for the foreseeable future.

I guess my thought process is this is a buying opportunity. I'm not confident it won't go a little lower overall but I think it will bounce back fairly soon.

I've got my white belt in stock trading and I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night but I'm always interested in others opinions.
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The Russell just hit correction territory and I think the big boys are soon to follow. I may kick myself in a few weeks but I'm going to keep holding cash while selling OTM puts. I just don't have enough confidence that we've seen the bottom yet.
 
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#20,081
#20,081
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Why not sell covered calls instead of shares of NFLX?

$92.42 Friday close.

4/17 $95 ($3.05-$3.15) (27 days, additional 6% plus if shares are called)

7/17 $100 ($5.15-$5.40) (118 days, additional $7.58 plus $5.15 equals about 14%)

Seems like the options contracts are priced for more upside.

I’ve done a 180 on NFLX. I didn’t like their business model of just renting their content. But they tried to buy Time Warner Discovery for their production assets (studios). Plus adding advertising revenue and pushing back on password sharing ought to be good long term strategies. YouTube (GOOGL) is of course a formidable competitor. I would expect AMZN and AAPL to be as well.
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I confess , I'm not really savy on the calls and puts. My gut a couple of years ago told me to hold on Netflix amd I'm glad I did. I own a significant amount of Amazon. I ventured and bought some Ai stocks in Broadcom, NVDA, palantir, AMD and a very small amount of bigbearAi (terrible so far). I've held DOV for a long time (former employer) and it's been stable but nothing to write home about. I've also got some Home Depot and it's been decent overall. A few others too.
 
#20,082
#20,082
DinkinFlicka said:
The Russell just hit correction territory and I think the big boys are soon to follow. I may kick myself in a few weeks but I'm going to keep holding cash while selling OTM puts. I just don't have enough confidence that we've seen the bottom yet.
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Kind of where I'm at too.
 
#20,083
#20,083
DinkinFlicka said:
The Russell just hit correction territory and I think the big boys are soon to follow. I may kick myself in a few weeks but I'm going to keep holding cash while selling OTM puts. I just don't have enough confidence that we've seen the bottom yet.
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Small caps are highly rate sensitive. ATM it sounds as if 2026 cuts are off the table. But Trump’s boy could be the Fed chair in 2 months.

Moving that oil through the Strait unmolested is going to trickle down if it’s not resolved. But that’s a short term issue. Long term it might actually help the US economy since we’re now a net exporter of energy. Too bad we’ve had government interference instead of support getting refineries online to process all of our light grade capacity when pulling the inputs out of the ground in the upstream.

Cuba could always be disruptive. As could the cartels south of the border. China is on the ropes ATM. Our “allies” are learning about FAFO.

The ND fast approaching $40T is difficult to process, but if the economy can grow faster than the deficits grow then it ought to be manageable.

Labor is another challenge. Especially for the small caps. But again, the longer term is becoming well positioned with modern production infrastructure eventually coming online.
 
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#20,084
#20,084
InVOLuntary said:
I confess , I'm not really savy on the calls and puts. My gut a couple of years ago told me to hold on Netflix amd I'm glad I did. I own a significant amount of Amazon. I ventured and bought some Ai stocks in Broadcom, NVDA, palantir, AMD and a very small amount of bigbearAi (terrible so far). I've held DOV for a long time (former employer) and it's been stable but nothing to write home about. I've also got some Home Depot and it's been decent overall. A few others too.
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Selling covered calls isn’t a difficult concept to understand with just a bit of studying. Options contracts are for 100 share lots, so that’s going to be an important restriction to look at if selling covered calls. Owning 50 shares prevents the opportunity. Owning 500 shares means that 5x call option contracts can be sold.

Selling a covered call option gives you cash in exchange for giving somebody else the right to buy shares from you at the contract’s strike price. If share prices fall then the contracts will expire without your shares being called away. So you keep the cash from selling the covered call contract. If share prices rise above the strike ($95 or $100 in my previous examples) then you’ll be required to surrender the shares at that $95 or $100 price. So if the share price jumps to $125 you’re not going to participate in that extra appreciation. But selling now nets $92/$93. Losing shares at $95 or $100 is better than $92/$93 but a missed opportunity if shares zoom up to $125.

The biggest risk of selling the covered calls is if you really want to unload the stock and the share price falls significantly. But NFLX does have a large amount of trading activity which can translate to a more stable price. Thinly traded stocks are far more vulnerable. Also, all of those funds (QQQ, VOO, SPY, etc) that are required to own the shares support the price. However, if the underlying share prices fall, you can still continue selling covered calls - just at lesser amounts.

If you don’t have to sell the stock to raise the cash then selling covered calls can be a very sound strategy. There are dozens of videos on YouTube that explain covered calls.

What type of account the appreciated shares are in is another huge consideration. Pre tax accounts get the stepped up cost basis benefiting heirs. An AFTER tax account doesn’t generate the taxable event as soon as shares are sold. So capital gains taxes can be avoided entirely by using the stepped up basis rule in a taxable (PRE tax) account and in retirement accounts donating appreciated stocks to charity in a tax deferred (regular IRA). Roth IRA holdings won’t ever be taxed again under the current IRS rules.
 
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#20,085
#20,085
Use PUT selling as an alternative to buying shares outright. You are taking cash but giving up the right to buy shares at tgd current price (which isn’t good if you really want to own the shares). The risk is similar to buying the shares - if shares fall in price you’re taking a hit.

Use CALL buying if you expect the underlying stock to quickly go up in value. BUT… the contracts can expire with a 100% loss if the underlying shares fail to appreciate before the contract expiration date.

Buy PUTS to close open short positions or to hedge against anticipated drops in stock values.

Don’t sell CALLS without already owning the shares (selling covered calls). Or use a more complex combination of contracts to prevent the unlimited possible losses from selling naked (uncovered) calls.
 
#20,086
#20,086
InVOLuntary said:
I'm tempted to buy. (I need to sell some because I'm cash poor😐). I think my run for Netflix is over. Bought in low and have kept it for several years. Seems to have topped out.

I have some other, very low risk stuff (wife's conservative mindset. 🙄 I'm approaching retirement but don't need it for the foreseeable future.

I guess my thought process is this is a buying opportunity. I'm not confident it won't go a little lower overall but I think it will bounce back fairly soon.

I've got my white belt in stock trading and I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night but I'm always interested in others opinions.
Click to expand...
I think this is going to take a while and we are looking at further downside. Not going to try and catch this falling knife. We’ve been so conditioned to seeing markets bounce back pretty nicely, but I’m a good bit more cautious this time.

The Iran situation shows no sign of abating, oil prices will push the cost of everything else higher, $39T in debt…I don’t necessarily like my short and very short term treasuries, but it’s one of the few places to get some okay yield and protect your cash. Yeah, concerned for the short/medium term, but if it’s one thing we’ve learned, American business never stops trying to make money. See post depression, post WWII, 70s oil shortages and inflation, post 9/11, 08/09 financial crisis, Covid.

I hope the trend continues, but I’m not jumping in just because we have a good up day or two. Too much unknown. Markets like clarity.
 
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#20,087
#20,087
Vol737 said:
I think this is going to take a while and we are looking at further downside. Not going to try and catch this falling knife. We’ve been so conditioned to seeing markets bounce back pretty nicely, but I’m a good bit more cautious this time.

The Iran situation shows no sign of abating, oil prices will push the cost of everything else higher, $39T in debt…I don’t necessarily like my short and very short term treasuries, but it’s one of the few places to get some okay yield and protect your cash. Yeah, concerned for the short/medium term, but if it’s one thing we’ve learned, American business never stops trying to make money. See post depression, post WWII, 70s oil shortages and inflation, post 9/11, 08/09 financial crisis, Covid.

I hope the trend continues, but I’m not jumping in just because we have a good up day or two. Too much unknown. Markets like clarity.
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This feels like the same pattern as last year. April could get brutal.
 
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#20,089
#20,089
Too lazy to read news, but why are futures rocking?

Can't imagine that is going to last all day.

Update: Nevermind....tech glitch there
 
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#20,093
#20,093
I know it had a massive run-up prior to, but gold is down 16% since the war started with a max drawdown of over 22% (prior to massive bounce this morning). Would not have figured that.
 
#20,095
#20,095
Technically the S&P still looks kind of ominous...we're just hanging out underneath the 200 DMA (although it is still rising. IGV looking weak again, like it wants to re-test the February lows.

Having said that, a big move up would be the thing that catches the most people off guard, which is what usually seems to happen.
 
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#20,096
#20,096
05_never_again said:
Technically the S&P still looks kind of ominous...we're just hanging out underneath the 200 DMA (although it is still rising. IGV looking weak again, like it wants to re-test the February lows.

Having said that, a big move up would be the thing that catches the most people off guard, which is what usually seems to happen.
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Hope you are right!
 
#20,097
#20,097
Requesting advice - Purchasing a house and need 275k for a down payment, but trying to avoid a taxable event while also maximizing my $$ invested. Investment accounts as follows -
1.35 mil in Vanguard
500k in TSP (401k)

I think I have 2 realistic options -
1. Transfer my Vanguard account to Interactive Brokers and take out a margin loan at 4.65%
2. I can take a 100k loan from my TSP at 4.5% (not margin - money comes out of my balance/investments - must pay back in 5 years which isn't a problem). Then sell approximately 175k in Vanguard investments - if I do it right I can only pay LTCG for 20k in gains.

What would you guys do? Slightly higher risk - take the margin loan from Interactive Brokers and prioritize keeping the amount invested high? Or the more conservative option which reduces my amount invested?

And yes I realize this is truly a 1st world problem and one that I certainly never thought I'd be lucky enough to have.
 
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#20,098
#20,098
JFreak said:
Requesting advice - Purchasing a house and need 275k for a down payment, but trying to avoid a taxable event while also maximizing my $$ invested. Investment accounts as follows -
1.35 mil in Vanguard
500k in TSP (401k)

I think I have 2 realistic options -
1. Transfer my Vanguard account to Interactive Brokers and take out a margin loan at 4.65%
2. I can take a 100k loan from my TSP at 4.5% (not margin - money comes out of my balance/investments - must pay back in 5 years which isn't a problem). Then sell approximately 175k in Vanguard investments - if I do it right I can only pay LTCG for 20k in gains.

What would you guys do? Slightly higher risk - take the margin loan from Interactive Brokers and prioritize keeping the amount invested high? Or the more conservative option which reduces my amount invested?

And yes I realize this is truly a 1st world problem and one that I certainly never thought I'd be lucky enough to have.
Click to expand...

Whats your gain/loss on your lowest performing $275K in investments at Fidelity?
 
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