All things STOCKS

#18,826
#18,826
Jax_Vol said:
That J-Pow guy is a genius...lol!

So far, we are cooking with gas here this morning.
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The impetus is probably the suggestion of 2 more rate cuts this calendar year. Mortgage lending and home construction might could drive the economy in 2026. Housing could also become more affordable if those sitting on low rate mortgages let loose of them and supply is further stimulated.
 
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#18,828
#18,828
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Concentration in a handful of names like Buffett or be overly diversified?

www.barchart.com

Warren Buffett’s Rare Warning About Diversification: ‘If You Have a Harem of Forty Women, You Never Get to Know Any of Them Very Well’

Warren Buffett’s quip about harems underscores his philosophy of focused investing, cautioning against over-diversification and diluted returns.
www.barchart.com www.barchart.com
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I think the lesson there is yes, be diversified, but you don't need as many names in a portfolio as you'd think in order to be diversified.

In Buffett's view, I'm probably overdiversified. Across all our accounts we probably own a dozen different ETFs and ~30 different individual stocks.
 
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#18,829
#18,829
05_never_again said:
I think the lesson there is yes, be diversified, but you don't need as many names in a portfolio as you'd think in order to be diversified.

In Buffett's view, I'm probably overdiversified. Across all our accounts we probably own a dozen different ETFs and ~30 different individual stocks.
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I’m way over-diversified. I had a finance professor say that 15-18 stocks is ideal and I’ve gone way beyond that rule.

But I’ve been letting my winners run and usually when I’ve added to falling shares they keep on falling. So as the article suggests focusing on just a few names and know them well, I let market forces dictate for me which to pay the most attention to. Too often shares are taking 25-40% haircuts in just a session or two. It’s almost as if they all eventually get rotated into for those crashes.

In Buffett’s prime years most large companies had earnings falling into a pretty tight range. Now the valuation metrics have gone off the charts. NVDA. PLTR. With today’s tech names around 30x almost signals that something is broken with the stock. 25 or 30 years ago AMZN kind of disrupted traditional analysis. And crypto has no rules. Although I think that Buffett has a valid point with those. What are they producing?
 
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#18,830
#18,830
I’ve held ORCL since 2021 and got cute selling covered calls last month. Rolled up once, still capped part of today’s pop. These gap days are why I keep a never sell core and only overwrite around earnings with tiny size. For the AI theme, I’m balancing exposure with semis and identity rails. I’ve been testing World ID in the World App and got verified at an orb locally, it’s privacy first and feels relevant with bots and deepfakes.
 
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#18,831
#18,831
That was quite the day yesterday.

Hope NVDA can save Intel. Might be their best chance. USA needs multiple big players in chips.
 
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#18,833
#18,833
Jax_Vol said:
That was quite the day yesterday.

Hope NVDA can save Intel. Might be their best chance. USA needs multiple big players in chips.
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Was a little interesting that the deal doesn't do anything specifically to help INTC's foundry business, which is far and away their biggest issue/drag on their profitability. But still is a huge deal for INTC.
 
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#18,836
#18,836
05_never_again said:
I think the lesson there is yes, be diversified, but you don't need as many names in a portfolio as you'd think in order to be diversified.

In Buffett's view, I'm probably overdiversified. Across all our accounts we probably own a dozen different ETFs and ~30 different individual stocks.
Click to expand...
Same here, but probably have 80+% in 8-12 stocks. Another 15-20% in 18-20 stocks
plus the etfs.
Since I now have to take RMDs I keep a sizable sum in CDs.
My brokerage acct, wifes brokerage acct, together acct, my sep-ira, my roth, her roth.
 
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#18,839
#18,839
05_never_again said:
Jerome with his "irrational exuberance" moment.

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I have to agree with Jerome.
I'm not buying any ETFs at the moment, and really cherry pick stocks. I'm at 28% bonds and cash. Markets just seem overly priced to me.
I've been wrong before.
Most recent purchase OKLO last month at $84. Nuclear energy. I've lost money on similar before, but it's up about 70%. Doesn't look good on paper, but has a job to do in Oak Ridge. Just lucky timing.
 
#18,840
#18,840
Go aeiou said:
I have to agree with Jerome.
I'm not buying any ETFs at the moment, and really cherry pick stocks. I'm at 28% bonds and cash. Markets just seem overly priced to me.
I've been wrong before.
Most recent purchase OKLO last month at $84. Nuclear energy. I've lost money on similar before, but it's up about 70%. Doesn't look good on paper, but has a job to do in Oak Ridge. Just lucky timing.
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You didn’t stick with LMT that was a winner. It hit my sell price yesterday and made me a quick 15%!

Like yourself, I’m finding buying opportunities few and far between lately. More in the money market than I like but better there than lost.
 
#18,841
#18,841
walkenvol said:
You didn’t stick with LMT that was a winner. It hit my sell price yesterday and made me a quick 15%!

Like yourself, I’m finding buying opportunities few and far between lately. More in the money market than I like but better there than lost.
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I sold 8 shares of LMT, but still have 44 shares in my SEP-IRA. It seems to keep going up a few bucks daily. I'm ready to sell now. Was think about it this morning.
On the other hand NVDA keeps inching down. That or BRKB is probably my largest holding. Up to now people have ignored that it is selling at a ridiculous price. Should probably trim now. Too much cash?
VG mm is yielding around 4%.
So I'm confused(nothing new).
 
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#18,843
#18,843
Go aeiou said:
I sold 8 shares of LMT, but still have 44 shares in my SEP-IRA. It seems to keep going up a few bucks daily. I'm ready to sell now. Was think about it this morning.
On the other hand NVDA keeps inching down. That or BRKB is probably my largest holding. Up to now people have ignored that it is selling at a ridiculous price. Should probably trim now. Too much cash?
VG mm is yielding around 4%.
So I'm confused(nothing new).
Click to expand...
If you like the defense stocks, LHX is another recommendation. They are making the solid fuel propulsion systems for the rockets that Eastern Europe is stockpiling.

Not a great day to buy because they are at a 52-week high.
 
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#18,845
#18,845
Jax_Vol said:
If you like the defense stocks, LHX is another recommendation. They are making the solid fuel propulsion systems for the rockets that Eastern Europe is stockpiling.

Not a great day to buy because they are at a 52-week high.
Click to expand...

AVAV has good prospects in the defense industry. I bought at $250 and sold the $280 covered call expiring next week. Then it pushed up to over $300. I hope it falls back under $280 - I’d like to keep the shares for a while.

The traditional defense companies still have to withstand federal budget pushback. But they are very reasonably priced with nice dividends.

Most defense companies make the big bucks developing new weapons. Space, AVs, and AI (PLTR) are well positioned for the trend.

Huntington Ingals (HII) that was spun out of Northrop Grumman will be building several carriers over the next 10 or 20 years.
 
#18,846
#18,846
Drone stocks (metrics are several weeks old)

EH (EHang Holdings)
KTOS (Kratos Defense and Security)(S&P 600)(412x, 102x forward)($8.7B)(0%)(93% institutional ownership)(propulsion tech partnering with GE)
AVAV (AeroVironment)(171x, 80x forward)($13B)(Schwab rating = F)
ZENA (Zena Technologies)
PRZO (ParaZero Technologies)
SPAI (Safe Pro Group
BA (Boeing)
JOBY (Joby Aviation)
NOC (Northrop Grumman)
 
#18,847
#18,847
DFEN ETF (3x)
ITA (iShares ETF)
VVX (V2X)


Various defense contractors:

Anduril (private)(autonomous systems)
ACHR (Archer Aviation)
AIR (AAR Corp)
AVAV (AeroVironment)(autonomous systems)
AXON (Axon Enterprise)(cameras, tasers)
BA (Boeing)
DCO (Ducommun Inc)
DRS (Leonardo DRS)
damn (General Dynamics)(M1 Abrams, Gulfstream, nuclear subs)
GE (GE Aerospace)
HEI (Heico Corp)(aerospace)($17.5B)
HII (Huntington Ingalls Industries)(divested by Northrop Grumman)(ships, Ford class carriers)
HWM (Howmet)
HXL (Hexcel)(carbon fiber, aerospace)($4.4B)
KTOS (Kratos)
LDOS (Leidos)(IT services defense)
LHX (L3 Harris Technologies)
LMT (Lockheed Martin)
LOAR (Loar Holdings)(aerospace)
MOG/A (Moog Inc)
MRCY (Mercury Systems)(aerospace systems)
NOC (Northrop Grumman)(B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, RQ-4 Global Hawk unmanned surveillance, MQ-4 Triton unmanned, B-21 Raider)
NPK (National Presto)(kitchen appliances, AMTEC (defense)
OSK (Oshkosh Corporation)(medium tactical vehicles (trucks), M1070 tank transporter, Heavy Expanded Mobility Tactical Truck, Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (HumVee replacement), tow trucks, airport emergency equipment, next generation postal delivery vehicle)
PLTR (Palantir)
RGR (Ruger)
RKLB (Rocket Lab)
RTX (RTX Corp)(Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, Raytheon divisions)(Raytheon Tech/United Technologies merger)(aircraft engines, avionics, cybersecurity, guided missiles, air defense systems, satellites, drones)
SAIC (Science Applications International Corp)(government services, intelligence)
SARO (Standardaero)
SPR (Spirit)
SWBI (Smith & Wesson)
TDG (Transdigm)
TGI (Triumph)
TXT (Textron)
WWD (Woodward)
 
#18,848
#18,848
DFEN ETF (3x)
ITA (iShares ETF)
VVX (V2X)


Various defense contractors:

Anduril (private)(autonomous systems)
ACHR (Archer Aviation)
AIR (AAR Corp)
AVAV (AeroVironment)(autonomous systems)
AXON (Axon Enterprise)(cameras, tasers)
BA (Boeing)
DCO (Ducommun Inc)
DRS (Leonardo DRS)
damn (Gee Dee)(General Dynamics)(M1 Abrams, Gulfstream, nuclear subs)
GE (GE Aerospace)
HEI (Heico Corp)(aerospace)($17.5B)
HII (Huntington Ingalls Industries)(divested by Northrop Grumman)(ships, Ford class carriers)
HWM (Howmet)
HXL (Hexcel)(carbon fiber, aerospace)($4.4B)
KTOS (Kratos)
LDOS (Leidos)(IT services defense)
LHX (L3 Harris Technologies)
LMT (Lockheed Martin)
LOAR (Loar Holdings)(aerospace)
MOG/A (Moog Inc)
MRCY (Mercury Systems)(aerospace systems)
NOC (Northrop Grumman)(B-2 Spirit stealth bomber, RQ-4 Global Hawk unmanned surveillance, MQ-4 Triton unmanned, B-21 Raider)
NPK (National Presto)(kitchen appliances, AMTEC (defense)
OSK (Oshkosh Corporation)(medium tactical vehicles (trucks), M1070 tank transporter, Heavy Expanded Mobility Tactical Truck, Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (HumVee replacement), tow trucks, airport emergency equipment, next generation postal delivery vehicle)
PLTR (Palantir)
RGR (Ruger)
RKLB (Rocket Lab)
RTX (RTX Corp)(Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, Raytheon divisions)(Raytheon Tech/United Technologies merger)(aircraft engines, avionics, cybersecurity, guided missiles, air defense systems, satellites, drones)
SAIC (Science Applications International Corp)(government services, intelligence)
SARO (Standardaero)
SPR (Spirit)
SWBI (Smith & Wesson)
TDG (Transdigm)
TGI (Triumph)
TXT (Textron)
WWD (Woodward)
 
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