All things STOCKS

#18,577
#18,577
walkenvol said:
Speaking of AI, am I the only one getting the “dot com” feel here? Since I entered in ‘21 NVDA is up 13X and AVGO is up 6X. I guess the difference is these guys are making money and the dot com guys were all projecting to make money? Still makes you wonder if it’s time to take some profits off the table yet most everyone is still got a strong buy on these?
Click to expand...
Tech stocks in 1999/2000 was one of the greatest bubbles in history in terms of how much valuations got out of whack. At the peak of the mania, there were some companies going public with no revenues (not no profits, no revenues) and would go up 200-300% on the IPO day and would be valued in the billions of dollars.

I see NVDA and the other AI/tech high flyers as more run of the mill rich (or very rich) stocks. The market is pricing in the current rate of growth continuing for like the next decade, or even accelerating further. Priced for absolute perfection.
 
  • Like
Reactions: walkenvol
#18,578
#18,578
05_never_again said:
Tech stocks in 1999/2000 was one of the greatest bubbles in history in terms of how much valuations got out of whack. At the peak of the mania, there were some companies going public with no revenues (not no profits, no revenues) and would go up 200-300% on the IPO day and would be valued in the billions of dollars.

I see NVDA and the other AI/tech high flyers as more run of the mill rich (or very rich) stocks. The market is pricing in the current rate of growth continuing for like the next decade, or even accelerating further. Priced for absolute perfection.
Click to expand...
And at the moment NVDA up to 182+. I've always called it a forever stock. Have it in personal, Sep-Ira, Roth and joint with wife. Wife has it in her same accounts. Mostly profits.
I've sold some in the past thinking it might finally be overpriced. Wrong. But when does that happen.?

.
 
  • Like
Reactions: walkenvol
#18,579
#18,579
Go aeiou said:
And at the moment NVDA up to 182+. I've always called it a forever stock. Have it in personal, Sep-Ira, Roth and joint with wife. Wife has it in her same accounts. Mostly profits.
I've sold some in the past thinking it might finally be overpriced. Wrong. But when does that happen.?

.
Click to expand...
Nobody knows. There could be another DeepSeek moment (the stock, and the entire market, didn't act right for weeks after that news) or there could be an earnings report that is something less than perfect that blows a hole in it.

The thing about NVDA is that while of course it is an incredible performer is doesn't behave like a completely ridiculous, purely parabolic dot-com stock did. He has fairly consistent, and sometimes deep pullbacks within a broader strong uptrend, and has gone a couple of years without making a new high. If anything, I think that's actually a good thing.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Go aeiou
#18,581
#18,581
05_never_again said:
Nobody knows. There could be another DeepSeek moment (the stock, and the entire market, didn't act right for weeks after that news) or there could be an earnings report that is something less than perfect that blows a hole in it.

The thing about NVDA is that while of course it is an incredible performer is doesn't behave like a completely ridiculous, purely parabolic dot-com stock did. He has fairly consistent, and sometimes deep pullbacks within a broader strong uptrend, and has gone a couple of years without making a new high. If anything, I think that's actually a good thing.
Click to expand...
If you look at the charts, I don’t see a couple of years without new highs? It broke $10 in 2020 and in 5 years is up 18X. I’m not selling, but it’s hard to believe I’ve 18X my investment in 5 years without thinking “how can this last”?. I know every time I took profits on one of the top tech stocks in the last 15 years it ended up being a bad decision so I’m holding big tech and doing trades on swings in dividend / value stocks ATM.

How much is needed now for a debt free retired couple to be comfortable even when the inevitable bear market comes back around? Used to be $1mil, is it now $3, $4, $5 mil?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jax_Vol
#18,583
#18,583
walkenvol said:
If you look at the charts, I don’t see a couple of years without new highs? It broke $10 in 2020 and in 5 years is up 18X. I’m not selling, but it’s hard to believe I’ve 18X my investment in 5 years without thinking “how can this last”?. I know every time I took profits on one of the top tech stocks in the last 15 years it ended up being a bad decision so I’m holding big tech and doing trades on swings in dividend / value stocks ATM.

How much is needed now for a debt free retired couple to be comfortable even when the inevitable bear market comes back around? Used to be $1mil, is it now $3, $4, $5 mil?
Click to expand...
Depends on what you want, and what income you have. SS, Retirement.
Want to travel? House paid for? Different home?
You might want to keep some money in Bonds/CDs especially to take IRA withdrawals. Also so you aren't having to sell stocks at a loss. That takes care of the downturn. Not another Great Depression.
No one knows if they will need assisted living/nursing home.
With regular Medicare and Plan D health care cost will be minimal. Advantage is often better if you are healthy. There's a reason they push it. As Thunder mentioned in a post below you will also likely want to also get a supplement policy to cover the Medicare co-insurance, deductible, other.
Will your investments earn 4%, 5%? Easy to calculate.
hard to believe more than 2 million is needed.
Much more than this. Just some things to consider.

Edited at 7:48 edt.
 
Last edited:
#18,593
#18,593
Go aeiou said:
Depends on what you want, and what income you have. SS, Retirement.
Want to travel? House paid for? Different home?
You might want to keep some money in Bonds/CDs especially to take IRA withdrawals. Also so you aren't having to sell stocks at a loss. That takes care of the downturn. Not another Great Depression.
No one knows if they will need assisted living/nursing home.
With regular Medicare and Plan D health care cost will be minimal. Advantage is often better if you are healthy. There's a reason they push it.
Will your investments earn 4%, 5%? Easy to calculate.
hard to believe more than 2 million is needed.
Much more than this. Just some things to consider.
Click to expand...

Supplemental/Gap has many advantages over Advantage. You choose your doctor and they decide what treatments, tests, specialists, etc you’ll get instead of an insurance desk jockey.

Advantage is more favorable for the government and the insurance companies. But people are going with Gap which has driven up the premiums with huge increases.

It’s easy to switch from Gap to Advantage. But not from Advantage to Gap. Especially if the participant isn’t healthy.
 
#18,594
#18,594
kiddiedoc said:
Weight loss drugs are the only "health stocks" I've done well on. Cashed NVO near its ATH, LLY has been a winner and I think may have room to climb with new indications, and I'm optimistic about AMGN.
Click to expand...
Rah!

Two years ago, I made money on both LLY and NVO.

This time, I tried NVO and HIMS. Lost good money on both.

There is money to be made there because it is a wonderful product. I just can’t get in sync, plus RFK, Jr is too much of a wild card. Choosing to tilt at other windmills.
 
#18,595
#18,595
Jax_Vol said:
PLTR on sale today.

That one is too crazy for me to stomach
Click to expand...

I sold some PLTR 180.0 covered calls a week or two ago. Shares zoomed up to $187. Now back down to $177 close after falling to $173.38 today. Wild ride, but net positive strategy ATM.

Instead of going back into PLTR with the proceeds I’m buying AVAV. Maybe if PLTR shares get down to about $125 I’ll add shares. AVAV might take a while to pop. P/E is 162x, but 71x forward. Autonomous defense systems. Golden Dome player.
 
#18,596
#18,596
XLV and CURE healthcare ETFs make more sense to me than trying to find the winning healthcare stocks. Insurers are good because when they get hit with a lot of claims, the states let them jack up the premiums.

PFE is off almost 60% since Q4-2021. MDT from $135 down to $73 (and has since recovered back to $93).
 
#18,597
#18,597
walkenvol said:
If you look at the charts, I don’t see a couple of years without new highs? It broke $10 in 2020 and in 5 years is up 18X. I’m not selling, but it’s hard to believe I’ve 18X my investment in 5 years without thinking “how can this last”?. I know every time I took profits on one of the top tech stocks in the last 15 years it ended up being a bad decision so I’m holding big tech and doing trades on swings in dividend / value stocks ATM.

How much is needed now for a debt free retired couple to be comfortable even when the inevitable bear market comes back around? Used to be $1mil, is it now $3, $4, $5 mil?
Click to expand...
Hit a high in October 2018 and didn't again until May 2020, hit a high in Nov 2021 and didn't again until May 2023.
 
#18,598
#18,598
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I sold some PLTR 180.0 covered calls a week or two ago. Shares zoomed up to $187. Now back down to $177 close after falling to $173.38 today. Wild ride, but net positive strategy ATM.

Instead of going back into PLTR with the proceeds I’m buying AVAV. Maybe if PLTR shares get down to about $125 I’ll add shares. AVAV might take a while to pop. P/E is 162x, but 71x forward. Autonomous defense systems. Golden Dome player.
Click to expand...
Sold UPS and bought PLTR today. Made a little with UPS because of having it for years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Jax_Vol
#18,600
#18,600
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I sold some PLTR 180.0 covered calls a week or two ago. Shares zoomed up to $187. Now back down to $177 close after falling to $173.38 today. Wild ride, but net positive strategy ATM.

Instead of going back into PLTR with the proceeds I’m buying AVAV. Maybe if PLTR shares get down to about $125 I’ll add shares. AVAV might take a while to pop. P/E is 162x, but 71x forward. Autonomous defense systems. Golden Dome player.
Click to expand...
AVAV may be a good play. Money to be made. Competition with the unmanned aerial systems is somewhat tough sledding. But USA is throwing bucks at them.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement



Back
Top