All things STOCKS

[walkenvol]

Any opinions on UPS being able to maintain its current dividend? On the recent pull back it’s now got a yield of 7.3%. I know their union expenses can be tough, but I don’t see the shipping business slowing down anytime soon?

 

[Jax_Vol]

Any opinions on UPS being able to maintain its current dividend? On the recent pull back it’s now got a yield of 7.3%. I know their union expenses can be tough, but I don’t see the shipping business slowing down anytime soon?

That is good intel to know.

No opinion here. I support unions, but their deal is a hair spicy for me to stomach.

But yes, I think if China continues to send us things...UPS will be delivering.

Have read where the LAX shipping terminal is already seeing a drop in Halloween/Thanksgiving/Christmas type of merchandise.

 

[Go aeiou]

Any opinions on UPS being able to maintain its current dividend? On the recent pull back it’s now got a yield of 7.3%. I know their union expenses can be tough, but I don’t see the shipping business slowing down anytime soon?

They have been a poorly run company almost forever. Look at their stock price for 1, 5, 10 ------years.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Any opinions on UPS being able to maintain its current dividend? On the recent pull back it’s now got a yield of 7.3%. I know their union expenses can be tough, but I don’t see the shipping business slowing down anytime soon?

I think that the labor contract is priced in to the share price. They’re down about 60% since 4 years ago. They’ve also locked down driver pay for several years now. But the unions are pissed that UPS has indicated that they will close some of their distribution centers to save costs (that’s the kind of thing that happens when unions drive up labor costs). They’d be fools though to go on strike with such a generous pay package deal recently negotiated.

Their other major costs include fuel, which is cheap ATM. But the unions are making them have A/C in their new trucks which will reduce the mpg. Kind of a big deal when they have thousands of delivery vans rolling. Insurance is another huge cost that has gone up a bunch.

The dividend should be safe for a year or 2. The earnings per share is $6.72 and the dividends being paid are $1.64/quarter ($6.56). So they can pay it without having to issue debt or sell shares to raise cash for now. The P/E ratio is 13.5x and the forward P/E ratio is estimated at 13.1x. So earnings are expected to be flat to slightly up which is much better than getting slammed. Actual earnings (not GAAP earnings) might actually be better than indicated since they’ll be writing off their fleet purchases immediately rather than sticking the costs on their balance sheet and spreading the expense over several years.

Their Amazon business is shrinking, but that’s common knowledge at this point.

Their biggest threat might be from the Uber/Lyft/DoorDash drivers that are handling smaller packages. I bought a lawn mower last summer and was surprised that it was delivered by some guy in his personal vehicle.

Edit: I don’t keep up with current accounting practices. Perhaps companies will continue to recapture fixed asset costs using depreciation and only writing off those asset purchases for tax purposes. In which case the net effect could be inflating reported earnings since the tax benefit increases the bottom line. Unless they also spread the tax savings over time in some type of deferred tax liability benefit account. Accounting is boring.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH): Definition and Critique

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is an investment theory stating that share prices reflect all information and consistent alpha generation is impossible.

www.investopedia.com

What Is the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH)?
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), alternatively known as the efficient market theory, is a hypothesis that states that share prices reflect all available information and consistent anlpha generation is impossible.

According to the EMH, stocks always trade at their fair value on exchanges, making it impossible for investors to purchase undervalued stocks or sell stocks for inflated prices. Therefore, it should be impossible to outperform the overall market through expert stock selection or market timing. The only way an investor can obtain higher returns is by purchasing riskier investments.

KEY TAKEAWAYS
The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) or theory states that share prices reflect all the information available.

According to the EMH, stocks trade at their fair market value on exchanges.

Proponents of EMH posit that investors benefit from investing in a low-cost, passive portfolio.

Opponents of EMH believe that it is possible to beat the market and that stocks can deviate from their fair market values.

 

[Majors]

Gosh, I haven't really paid attention to NVO since I cashed a year or so ago for a handsome profit. What happened to them? LLY is still cooking and I'm ready for AMGN to pop.

losing the battle in the weigh loss market and the fallout with HIMS. Lilly was able to capture Zepbound as the only glp1 approved for OSA.

10-12 years ago, NVO with Victoza was on top of the diabetes market with little to no competition for the injectables. Flooded the market with samples, reps and advertising.

 

[Majors]

I think I'm going to redirect my weekly contributions to NVDA and start gearing toward AMD. The bull run I thought was going to happen seems to have started early amid tech earnings.

There are arguments to be made that AMD's ceiling is higher, and I say that as Jensen's fanboy. The market cap difference is stunning.

Plus, as a tech dude, I can tell you the gap is closing between the two. This time next year AMD might be NVDA's GPU equal.

Plus, CPUs.

Both clipped $185 overnight. I got in at $60 on AMD and sold at $90, not happy about that one today.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Suggest a healthy dose of MSFT while under $500. They are just getting started.

Eat that loss on INTC. Dead $.

Gotta brag...MSFT pulling the wagon.

On other hand, the falling knife known as Novo Nordisk has sliced off eight fingers. Massive failure to do my due diligence.

 

[Jax_Vol]

losing the battle in the weigh loss market and the fallout with HIMS. Lilly was able to capture Zepbound as the only glp1 approved for OSA.

10-12 years ago, NVO with Victoza was on top of the diabetes market with little to no competition for the injectables. Flooded the market with samples, reps and advertising.

Curious how long HIMS can keep working their magic. Any idea? I know many in the mostly female friends who have tried the compounded Ozempic.

Seems to work for weight loss, but some can't tolerate the side effects.

 

[Majors]

Curious how long HIMS can keep working their magic. Any idea? I know many in the mostly female friends who have tried the compounded Ozempic.

Seems to work for weight loss, but some can't tolerate the side effects.

Believe HIMS has room to grow and compete with pharmaceutical companies and telehealth. Multiple products at a lower cost, almost like TEVA pharma when they controlled the generic market.

I’ve known a few females that got hit with pancreatitis, using Ozempic.

 

[OldandStillaVol]

HIMS....was allowed to use the NVO secret sauce to "compound" making the weight loss drug affordable.

They were allowed to do that because the juice was in shortage.

Now, the shortage is over. The courts ruled that that they need to stop compounding. However, per NVO, they aren't complying with the court order.

In the long haul, HIMS will perhaps own NVO a lot of money. In the short haul, we down 22% today.

Yes, NVO didn't pay enough attention to manufacturing /demand. LLY anticipated demand much better. Also due to their own incompetence, NVO allowed generic Ozempic to be approved in Canada and it will be available commercially next year, I believe. Keep an eye on that development. A generic Ozempic in Canada might also make its way into the US.

 

[Go aeiou]

I think that the labor contract is priced in to the share price. They’re down about 60% since 4 years ago. They’ve also locked down driver pay for several years now. But the unions are pissed that UPS has indicated that they will close some of their distribution centers to save costs (that’s the kind of thing that happens when unions drive up labor costs). They’d be fools though to go on strike with such a generous pay package deal recently negotiated.

Their other major costs include fuel, which is cheap ATM. But the unions are making them have A/C in their new trucks which will reduce the mpg. Kind of a big deal when they have thousands of delivery vans rolling. Insurance is another huge cost that has gone up a bunch.

The dividend should be safe for a year or 2. The earnings per share is $6.72 and the dividends being paid are $1.64/quarter ($6.56). So they can pay it without having to issue debt or sell shares to raise cash for now. The P/E ratio is 13.5x and the forward P/E ratio is estimated at 13.1x. So earnings are expected to be flat to slightly up which is much better than getting slammed. Actual earnings (not GAAP earnings) might actually be better than indicated since they’ll be writing off their fleet purchases immediately rather than sticking the costs on their balance sheet and spreading the expense over several years.

Their Amazon business is shrinking, but that’s common knowledge at this point.

Their biggest threat might be from the Uber/Lyft/DoorDash drivers that are handling smaller packages. I bought a lawn mower last summer and was surprised that it was delivered by some guy in his personal vehicle.

Edit: I don’t keep up with current accounting practices. Perhaps companies will continue to recapture fixed asset costs using depreciation and only writing off those asset purchases for tax purposes. In which case the net effect could be inflating reported earnings since the tax benefit increases the bottom line. Unless they also spread the tax savings over time in some type of deferred tax liability benefit account. Accounting is boring.

Accountants don't retire. They just lose their balance.

 

[@1RBFjr]

Accountants don't retire. They just lose their balance.

That’s baaaaaddd

 

[Jax_Vol]

That’s baaaaaddd

Lawyers also don't retire.

They just lose their appeal.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Yes, NVO didn't pay enough attention to manufacturing /demand. LLY anticipated demand much better. Also due to their own incompetence, NVO allowed generic Ozempic to be approved in Canada and it will be available commercially next year, I believe. Keep an eye on that development. A generic Ozempic in Canada might also make its way into the US.

Is it safe to assume there is intense competition for the compounded Ozempic?

I'm only familiar with HIMS because that the one NVO is complaining about.

 

[walkenvol]

Both clipped $185 overnight. I got in at $60 on AMD and sold at $90, not happy about that one today.

I got in AMD at $102 and still running although I thought about ditching it until the recent rebound.

Can’t allow yourself to be unhappy with a 50% profit as we’ve all cut winners loose to soon and held on too long. My worst was taking a small profit on Tesla 10 years back because I never really understood the crazy P/E ratio and wasn’t comfortable with the volatility - seemed more like gambling versus investing. That investment would’ve been up 10x or more today.

 

[kiddiedoc]

My worst was taking a small profit on Tesla 10 years back because I never really understood the crazy P/E ratio and wasn’t comfortable with the volatility - seemed more like gambling versus investing. That investment would’ve been up 10x or more today.

17.4x, to be exact.

 

[Jax_Vol]

What a mess today

 

[OldandStillaVol]

Is it safe to assume there is intense competition for the compounded Ozempic?

I'm only familiar with HIMS because that the one NVO is complaining about.

I am sure HIMS buys Ozempic from several compounding pharmacies but I don't know how competitive they are in regards to price. It's a totally different business than generic drugs so my GUESS is that compounding pharmacies don't have experience in high volume/low price drug manufacturing.

The first generic Ozempic in Canada will be manufactured by Sandoz and they are a huge generic drug company.

 

[Jax_Vol]

I am sure HIMS buys Ozempic from several compounding pharmacies but I don't know how competitive they are in regards to price. It's a totally different business than generic drugs so my GUESS is that compounding pharmacies don't have experience in high volume/low price drug manufacturing.

The first generic Ozempic in Canada will be manufactured by Sandoz and they are a huge generic drug company.

The weight loss stuff is changing so fast, I'm unsure how to keep up and/or try to make a buck. Novo Nordisk just tumbled like a rock, and they are a huge company.

In general, I need to just ignore all med related stocks and focus otherwhere.

Thanks for the intel!

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Buffett took a second big write down of Kraft Heinz, said it wasn’t necessary at this point to write down OXY, and is looking into buying CSX.

Reuters on BRK:

Buffett's conglomerate signaled it remains cautious about market valuations, amid uncertainty about tariffs and growth in the broader economy.

It reported a near-record $344.1 billion cash stake, and sold more stocks than it bought for an 11th straight quarter. As of mid-July, Berkshire hadn't repurchased any of its own stock since May 2024.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Business Insider 8/2/2025:

Berkshire also sold a net $3 billion of stocks last quarter, purchasing $3.9 billion of shares but selling $6.9 billion worth. The disposals marked the 11th quarter in a row that the company has been a net seller of stocks.

Second-quarter earnings fell from the same period a year ago as slimmer insurance underwriting profits offset higher income from BNSF Railway, Berkshire Hathaway Energy, and the manufacturing, service, and retailing division.
——————

Another key driver of the decline was an $877 million foreign currency exchange loss tied to non-dollar debt — a sharp swing from a $446 million gain in the same period last year.

Berkshire is now sitting on a $344 billion cash pile, the filings show. That sum is larger than the market capitalization of companies like Coca-Cola and Bank of America.

Buffett, who turns 95 this month, refrained from repurchasing any Berkshire shares last quarter. The company wrote down its 27% stake in Kraft Heinz by about $5 billion, reducing its carrying value to $8.4 billion.

 

[Jax_Vol]

After a weekend of DD, I'm changing direction and going to do something dumb. However, not wagering much. As mentioned earlier about Telsa, this is truly more gambling than investing.

At close today, PLTR reports earnings. For all their quirkiest and naughty boy behavior, I love the brains of Peter Thiel and Alex Karp. Within a year of their IPO, I owned shares cheap. Don't recall exact price/timeline but under $20. It was just so volatile, the violent dips caused stress, and I bailed out. Bad move! The aftermarket action today will be exciting.

Under the radar, HIMS is reporting at the same time. That company was funded partially by Peter Thiel. As I understand, the CEO, Andrew Dudum, trained in a Thiel school/company early career.

In a pure move of "betting on the jockey", if I can get in for $63-64 sometime....I'm gambling a little newfound cash. The money is in Vanguard and they do not offer premarket trades. More subdued than PLTR, the afterhours action on HIMS should also be wild. No true clue on which direction.

Purely based on 'from the gut', I think both companies open higher tomorrow and will be somewhat higher by end of month. Again, HIMS is so volatile, unsure if I can stomach a long ride. Time will tell.

For me, a high-risk play. Buffett would not approve. Fingers crossed...

 

[Jax_Vol]

After a weekend of DD, I'm changing direction and going to do something dumb. However, not wagering much. As mentioned earlier about Telsa, this is truly more gambling than investing.

At close today, PLTR reports earnings. For all their quirkiest and naughty boy behavior, I love the brains of Peter Thiel and Alex Karp. Within a year of their IPO, I owned shares cheap. Don't recall exact price/timeline but under $20. It was just so volatile, the violent dips caused stress, and I bailed out. Bad move! The aftermarket action today will be exciting.

Under the radar, HIMS is reporting at the same time. That company was funded partially by Peter Thiel. As I understand, the CEO, Andrew Dudum, trained in a Thiel school/company early career.

In a pure move of "betting on the jockey", if I can get in for $63-64 sometime....I'm gambling a little newfound cash. The money is in Vanguard and they do not offer premarket trades. More subdued than PLTR, the afterhours action on HIMS should also be wild. No true clue on which direction.

Purely based on 'from the gut', I think both companies open higher tomorrow and will be somewhat higher by end of month. Again, HIMS is so volatile, unsure if I can stomach a long ride. Time will tell.

For me, a high-risk play. Buffett would not approve. Fingers crossed...

Fully into HIMS at an average of 63.23.

Feels like I'm at the dog track and just placed a semi-hefty bet on the 18-1 odds greyhound that pooped while walking out of the tunnel.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The premium on at the money PLTR call options ($160) expiring in 4 days is almost $9. The $175s are $3.35. Underlying is about $160 - up $5+ this morning.