All things STOCKS

#18,376
#18,376
walkenvol said:
Popular opinion appears to buy surging stocks instead of trying to catch stocks bouncing up from their bottom. I’ve done OK grabbing a few long established companies on short term bad news like F when it dropped below $5 and a few oil companies when they pulled back on the Biden policies. I prefer the ones with good yield rates due to the lower prices - lots easier to wait out a stock to return to favor when you’re getting a 5%+ dividend while waiting. JMO
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I did an entire reseach article (20 or so pages iirc) on this topic in grad school:

"Value stocks" vs "growth stocks"

Value stocks killed vs growth.

Why? A variety of niche reasons, but the most glaring is clear - once something is labeled a growth stock, it's often done growing. The common person following an index is already behind the main growth stage.

Value investing wins again.
 
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#18,377
#18,377
Devo182 said:
I did an entire reseach article (20 or so pages iirc) on this topic in grad school:

"Value stocks" vs "growth stocks"

Value stocks killed vs growth.

Why? A variety of niche reasons, but the most glaring is clear - once something is labeled a growth stock, it's often done growing. The common person following an index is already behind the main growth stage.

Value investing wins again.
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It seems to me that once a lot of stocks are given a high rating for example, they have already proven that they are growers, and have been growing for a while. This means if you buy it then that most of it's upward movement.....at least the big jumps..... is already gone.
 
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#18,378
#18,378
norrislakevol said:
It seems to me that once a lot of stocks are given a high rating for example, they have already proven that they are growers, and have been growing for a while. This means if you buy it then that most of it's upward movement.....at least the big jumps..... is already gone.
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How do you explain Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google, Tesla, And more recently Nivida & Broadcom? If you jumped on any of these when they were proven growers you would have 3x - 10x growth?
 
#18,379
#18,379
walkenvol said:
How do you explain Apple, Amazon, Meta, Google, Tesla, And more recently Nivida & Broadcom? If you jumped on any of these when they were proven growers you would have 3x - 10x growth?
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Outliers.

We're talking indexes over many years.

But to your point - it's possible tech has shifted that narrative. Not exactly dividend types. So much consolidation of $$$ these days.
 
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#18,381
#18,381
From local library, I tried to read a 50 year old book about John Templeton's value picking.

Maybe it will come back someday, but I couldn't use really anything.

I'm sure you can cherry pick a few examples.

But these days, really difficult for a company to bounce back off the mat without government assistance or some curious quirk....IMO.

For example, Trumpster really wants to help Intel. For me, they are dead meat.
 
#18,382
#18,382
Jax_Vol said:
From local library, I tried to read a 50 year old book about John Templeton's value picking.

Maybe it will come back someday, but I couldn't use really anything.

I'm sure you can cherry pick a few examples.

But these days, really difficult for a company to bounce back off the mat without government assistance or some curious quirk....IMO.

For example, Trumpster really wants to help Intel. For me, they are dead meat.
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Depends. Many say you aren't supposed to try to time the market, but even Warren Buffet said...IIRCC "When everyone else is being greedy, panic, when everyone else is panicking, be greedy". A great example of this is some smaller cap tech stocks that got absolutely crushed when interest rates jumped up really high. I bought UPST and LMND when they were in the teens per share.. Look at the prices now. I also bought FUBO when it was (and still is) in the singe digits. You don't win em all.
 
#18,383
#18,383
norrislakevol said:
Depends. Many say you aren't supposed to try to time the market, but even Warren Buffet said...IIRCC "When everyone else is being greedy, panic, when everyone else is panicking, be greedy". A great example of this is some smaller cap tech stocks that got absolutely crushed when interest rates jumped up really high. I bought UPST and LMND when they were in the teens per share.. Look at the prices now. I also bought FUBO when it was (and still is) in the singe digits. You don't win em all.
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All valid points.

May be wrong on the source, but think Templeton said, "The time to buy is when there is blood in the streets". And that is good advice in my opinion.
 
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#18,385
#18,385
Go aeiou said:
'yep, but then you are trying to catch a falling knife. As long as you don't panic and sell if the price continues to fall.
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That's right. It's never a gain unless you sell if for a gain, it's never a loss unless you sell it for a loss. If I believe in the company I will likely scoop up more shares the cheaper it gets.
 
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#18,386
#18,386
One small sample size, but after the Air India crash, I bought a bunch of Boeing after it got beat down $15/share. Now it is up $30 over where I bought it. I have trailing stops in and I am selling near term puts below that. Easy money. The one 'mistake' I did make in that is that I also sold covered calls at $240, and it is at $233 as of Friday. I'm gonna ride this horse for awhile though.
 
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#18,389
#18,389
norrislakevol said:
Depends. Many say you aren't supposed to try to time the market, but even Warren Buffet said...IIRCC "When everyone else is being greedy, panic, when everyone else is panicking, be greedy". A great example of this is some smaller cap tech stocks that got absolutely crushed when interest rates jumped up really high. I bought UPST and LMND when they were in the teens per share.. Look at the prices now. I also bought FUBO when it was (and still is) in the singe digits. You don't win em all.
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Warren Buffett got that from Benjamin Graham, who wrote the book The Intelligent Investor. Buffett is a huge follower of Graham's principles of investing.
 
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#18,391
#18,391
Go aeiou said:
'yep, but then you are trying to catch a falling knife. As long as you don't panic and sell if the price continues to fall.
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Last week, I dove back into Lockheed Martin (LMT) as they hit a 52-week low.

Was that value investing or attempting to catch a falling knife?

Right now, feels like a razor sharp saber.
 
#18,392
#18,392
Jax_Vol said:
Last week, I dove back into Lockheed Martin (LMT) as they hit a 52-week low.

Was that value investing or attempting to catch a falling knife?

Right now, feels like a razor sharp saber.
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They missed earnings. But it was a write down of some classified program with details that aren’t going to be shared with the general public.

Two positives. The same quarter in 2026 will have easier comps. Also it’s a write down of sunk costs rather than going over budget with cash expenses.

Buying opportunity rather than a falling knife IMO. LMT will continue to be a big player in space. NATO countries will buy more aircraft. 3.1% dividend ($13.20) is covered with earnings of $17.76. Earnings are expected to grow next FY. Nowhere close to a trillion market cap. Not even $100 billion - about half of UBER’s MC. Smaller than DoorDash.
 
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#18,397
#18,397
Thunder Good-Oil said:
They missed earnings. But it was a write down of some classified program with details that aren’t going to be shared with the general public.

Two positives. The same quarter in 2026 will have easier comps. Also it’s a write down of sunk costs rather than going over budget with cash expenses.

Buying opportunity rather than a falling knife IMO. LMT will continue to be a big player in space. NATO countries will buy more aircraft. 3.1% dividend ($13.20) is covered with earnings of $17.76. Earnings are expected to grow next FY. Nowhere close to a trillion market cap. Not even $100 million - about half of UBER’s MC. Smaller than DoorDash.
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Thank you for those thoughts.

Yes, I listened to their earnings call. It was not going to be a great quarter, so I felt like they just decided to go ahead and clean the plate with the write down.

We will see. I think they make some good stuff, and the Trumpster should be helping sell systems to all the countries boarding Russia.

The Sec of Defense was over there on Friday meeting with the three Baltic states. They mentioned both LMT and another in their prepared remarks. Think it was Northrup Grumman but don't quote me on that.

Hard for me to see how LMT is down 50% with wars / buildups ongoing in both middle east and Ukraine, But what do I know...?
 
#18,398
#18,398
Jax_Vol said:
Thank you for those thoughts.

Yes, I listened to their earnings call. It was not going to be a great quarter, so I felt like they just decided to go ahead and clean the plate with the write down.

We will see. I think they make some good stuff, and the Trumpster should be helping sell systems to all the countries boarding Russia.

The Sec of Defense was over there on Friday meeting with the three Baltic states. They mentioned both LMT and another in their prepared remarks. Think it was Northrup Grumman but don't quote me on that.

Hard for me to see how LMT is down 50% with wars / buildups ongoing in both middle east and Ukraine, But what do I know...?
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Obviously $100 BILLION, not $100 million.

Zeihan makes a good point that’s stuck with me. Defense systems oriented more toward nearer threats will see greater demand overseas. Especially cheap drones that can be produced in high numbers. The major US defense contractors have developed systems to fight battles from far away. LMT is primarily selling fighter jets, but they do have exposure to high tech electronics and space.

From Morningstar’s assessment, another takeaway is that the major defense companies make their biggest profits developing weapons rather than from the manufacturing.
 
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#18,399
#18,399
PLTR’s market cap is $375 billion. 693x, 274x forward. $0.23/EPS. $4 billion revenue, 2.5 billion shares. Earnings need to be about 10-20 times higher to reach a normalized P/E ratio.

LMT: $98 billion
NOC: $82 billion
General Dynamics: $82 billion
RTX: $210 billion

PLTR does have commercial markets to exploit, but dang.
 
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#18,400
#18,400
Thunder Good-Oil said:
PLTR’s market cap is $375 billion. 693x, 274x forward. $0.23/EPS. $4 billion revenue, 2.5 billion shares. Earnings need to be about 10-20 times higher to reach a normalized P/E ratio.

LMT: $98 billion
NOC: $82 billion
General Dynamics: $82 billion
RTX: $210 billion

PLTR does have commercial markets to exploit, but dang.
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Yeah...the kiddo's love that one. The spook business is very sexy.

Haven't dug deeply, but think their only product is software.
 
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