All things STOCKS

[05_never_again]

I'm curious to see how the market acts when it moves towards the declining 50 and 200 DMAs (or when they come down to meet the market). The prior support from March 13 (the bottom of that initial push lower) could become resistance as well. Personally I'd like to see the S&P fall back towards 5300 or so (could be a spot for some more purchases), have that become a higher low, then continue the push higher.

 

[mrorange211]

Nice quiet day. Up 0.2%. Down 0.2%. Trending towards 0.0%. Up 1%, 2%, 3% is cool. But then it usually is given back the next day or soon thereafter. A lot of selling after positive days. A stealthy +.2% a day for 3 out of 4 weeks or so would be a nice change of pace.

Priming for takeoff imo

 

[mrorange211]

The real worry for the market today is Lutnick's appearance on CNBC at 2PM

 

[Go aeiou]

Priming for takeoff imo

auto tariffs deal.

Bark, bite.

 

[mrorange211]

auto tariffs deal.

Bark, bite.

I fear that a trade deal with Japan/India will not be announced today as it would have already leaked by now.

 

[Go aeiou]

I fear that a trade deal with Japan/India will not be announced today as it would have already leaked by now.

Not likely, but
Tomorrow is another day.

 

[05_never_again]

Priming for takeoff imo

Not sure about that - I could see a buy the rumor, sell the news type of reaction. The market has rallied really strongly since last Tuesday and is in an area where it wouldn't be surprising to find some sellers.

 

[mrorange211]

Not sure about that - I could see a buy the rumor, sell the news type of reaction. The market has rallied really strongly since last Tuesday and is in an area where it wouldn't be surprising to find some sellers.

I get that perspective too. I only say that for this week because of earnings and econ data that I think will be positive. I don't feel this way after Friday.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

PLTR 5/2/2025 call options are sure priced as if more of a move back up is anticipated.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The $116 ATM 5/9/25 calls are $9.

 

[mrorange211]

PLTR 5/2/2025 call options are sure priced as if more of a move back up is anticipated.

There was a massive purchase of these at close yesterday. It was around $6 million I think.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

There was a massive purchase of these at close yesterday. It was around $6 million I think.

I’m tempted to sell some covered calls. But there’s a 50% chance that I’ll be disappointed if I do. $20-$125 52 week range. Currently $116.

The calls and underlying shares are awfully expensive. 600x on $0.19 eps. Something’s up.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

$270B market cap. Forward p/e is 200x.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

A hair under $3B in revenue. 90x? Charlie Munger’s spinning in his grave.

pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Put in a $5.25 limit order for 5/9 128 calls. Currently $4.65 so it probably won’t hit today, but I’ll play with it tomorrow.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

There was a massive purchase of these at close yesterday. It was around $6 million I think.

Somebody hedging their short position?

 

[mrorange211]

Somebody hedging their short position?

Yeah, I was thinking that too, but I also think this could be a bullish bet on ATH. It's hard to tell with big orders like this and I only saw one big one. I try to scan for multiple like this for my own trades.

 

[mrorange211]

. I only say that for this week because of earnings and econ data that I think will be positive.

lol

 

[05_never_again]

lol

"News and surprises tend to follow the direction of the trend" (which is still lower).

 

[mrorange211]

"News and surprises tend to follow the direction of the trend" (which is still lower).

Light payrolls indicate a Fed Cut is more likely. Better hope for some good earnings today and tomorrow.

 

[05_never_again]

It's faded from the headlines (for obvious reasons), but the 10y yield is quietly back down under 4.20. It was at 4.60 just a couple of weeks ago.

 

[mrorange211]

Yep. They have to get the 10y down to refinance the debt this year. Overall, this leads to the narrative of another cut as well.

 

[mrorange211]

The rebound in the market today comes from realization of the actual GDP number, imo. Incredible MSFT and META earnings AH. Combined with AMZN, AAPL tomorrow, we could get to 5700 if job numbers also come in weak. We'll see.

 

[Majors]

AH is being kind for NVDA and others. $113

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The PLTR calls are soaring. I’m watching the 5/9 135s. Shares are up to almost $121 in the pre-open. $3.3/$3.4 for the call options. $14 appreciation (11.5% in 6 days) plus the $3.3 (14.3%).

I might go for 140s instead ($2.40). $2,140 per option plus any gains at the open. But I don’t like selling calls.

Crazy. Surely the shares won’t blow through $135 or $140 in a week when they’re already trading at the ATH.