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Thunder Good-Oil

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That's like saying California is doing great, but Tennessee is in real trouble. That may be true to an extent, but they are all riding on the same ship. If it sinks, they all go down.
Not really. Norway has North Sea oil fields and a manageable population. France has a younger demo and lots of coastline and their infrastructure is better. They didn’t shutter all of their nuke plants. Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland aren’t in the EU. Greenland isn’t either, although Denmark is. GB withdrew from the EU.
 

mrorange211

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That does not matter. Every single one of their economies are connected just like our states. The failure of Germany alone will cause a massive depression on the entire continent. But it isn't just Germany. France and UK and both experiencing massive inflation upticks while DXY rips their faces off.
 

Thunder Good-Oil

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Yes, the financial services index. It's either the inverted yield curve or credit spreads or something holding it back. I don't know. Maybe the general tightening of liquidity?
XLF is a Select Sector ETF SPDR sponsored by State Street - it’s based on a segment of the S&P 500 but isn’t really a financial services index.

But no doubt it should do better once the bond market / interest rates get back to something resembling normalcy.
 

Thunder Good-Oil

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That does not matter. Every single one of their economies are connected just like our states. The failure of Germany alone will cause a massive depression on the entire continent. But it isn't just Germany. France and UK and both experiencing massive inflation upticks while DXY rips their faces off.
Their economies didn’t mirror each other when Ireland was attracting corporate HQs with their friendly tax rates about 10-20 years ago.

Germany is Being hit harder. Older demo. More landlocked. Not as insulated from Russia’s nefarious shenanigans. Not a diversified energy mix having moved away from coal and nukes.

The top 20 or 30 economies move somewhat in simikar directions - but there are many differences. France and Norway especially are better positioned. Germany is a mess.
 

mrorange211

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Their economies didn’t mirror each other when Ireland was attracting corporate HQs with their friendly tax rates about 10-20 years ago.

Germany is Being hit harder. Older demo. More landlocked. Not as insulated from Russia’s nefarious shenanigans. Not a diversified energy mix having moved away from coal and nukes.

The top 20 or 30 economies move somewhat in simikar directions - but there are many differences. France and Norway especially are better positioned. Germany is a mess.
I'm definitely not rooting for Europe to go under. I hope they pull out of this and the effects are limited as you believe. I have a hard time believing it though.
 

05_never_again

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Nobody knows what will happen, but lots of times it is difficult for the market to break to a new high or low if it stretches itself too much before it gets there. The S&P is down 15% since the August swing high and 11.25% over the last 10 trading sessions...I think we might bounce here briefly over the next week or two and then have a rough October.

Very rough period calendar-wise as well. This September/October period is the worst time for the markets seasonally, and when a lot of outright crises have occurred (Lehman, 9/11, LTCM, 1987 crash, 1929 crash). Even big events at the time that people don't think much about now, like mini-crashes in 1989 and 1997 and Black Wednesday (when the UK withdrew the GBP from the ERM) were in September or October. It's uncanny.
 
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Velo Vol

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Nobody knows what will happen, but lots of times it is difficult for the market to break to a new high or low if it stretches itself too much before it gets there. The S&P is down 15% since the August swing high and 11.25% over the last 10 trading sessions...I think we might bounce here briefly over the next week or two and then have a rough October.

Very rough period calendar-wise as well. This September/October period is the worst time for the markets seasonally, and when a lot of outright crises have occurred (Lehman, 9/11, LTCM, 1987 crash, 1929 crash). Even big events at the time that people don't think much about now, like mini-crashes in 1989 and 1997 and Black Wednesday (when the UK withdrew the GBP from the ERM) were in September or October. It's uncanny.
Yep, we talked about "September," and it's delivering. Ouch.

 

Go aeiou

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Not really. Norway has North Sea oil fields and a manageable population. France has a younger demo and lots of coastline and their infrastructure is better. They didn’t shutter all of their nuke plants. Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland aren’t in the EU. Greenland isn’t either, although Denmark is. GB withdrew from the EU.
Not that it matters because their economies are so small, but Greenland is a huge rock(s) with almost no people (50k). The major industry in Iceland is tourism.
 
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