All things STOCKS

#10,982
#10,982
mrorange211 said:
This is why you should liquidate your tech holdings ASAP, especially those involved in consumer electronics (AAPL).
Click to expand...

(Disclaimer: I'm a relative neophyte in this whole retail investing thing and it probably shows, haha)

I'm playing the long game (retirement horizon is in the 20-25 year range for me) on the handful of tech holdings I have accumulated (INTC, IBM, and the rest of them are contained in broader ETFs like SCHD and DGRO). If AAPL, MSFT, and others drop substantially and present long-term value, it's a buying opportunity for me. Heck, same goes for TGT, WMT, or other solid dividend-payers.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Go aeiou
#10,983
#10,983
tbh said:
(Disclaimer: I'm a relative neophyte in this whole retail investing thing and it probably shows, haha)

I'm playing the long game (retirement horizon is in the 20-25 year range for me) on the handful of tech holdings I have accumulated (INTC, IBM, and the rest of them are contained in broader ETFs like SCHD and DGRO). If AAPL, MSFT, and others drop substantially and present long-term value, it's a buying opportunity for me. Heck, same goes for TGT, WMT, or other solid dividend-payers.
Click to expand...

I understand this perspective but it's playing by the old rules. You are assuming that these companies will rebound significantly over their highs achieved during a pandemic with unprecedented QE. It was artificial and their stock prices then and now are nowhere near actual valuations of companies. Will MSFT, AAPL, TSLA and others achieve their highs from 2020/2021? It's possible but I think it may take over a decade. The fact is we are at the beginning of a major economic reshuffling. The FED is not going to bail out this market, and there is more bad news coming on the daily. IMO we aren't looking at a recession situation, but a depression. We are beginning to see the fault lines break in housing and retail this week.

*I should also note that my position takes assumption as well based on a macro outlook. I admit that things could get bad enough that the FED restarts QE, at which point I will become extremely bullish again. Until that time, I'm all cash and shorting most everything. I'm waiting for a better buy-in point, and I'm not interesting in dollar-cost averaging stocks with highs I believe are completely ludacris.*
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: tbh
#10,985
#10,985
mrorange211 said:
I understand this perspective but it's playing by the old rules. You are assuming that these companies will rebound significantly over their highs achieved during a pandemic with unprecedented QE. It was artificial and their stock prices then and now are nowhere near actual valuations of companies. Will MSFT, AAPL, TSLA and others achieve their highs from 2020/2021? It's possible but I think it may take over a decade. The fact is we are at the beginning of a major economic reshuffling. The FED is not going to bail out this market, and there is more bad news coming on the daily. IMO we aren't looking at a recession situation, but a depression. We are beginning to see the fault lines break in housing and retail this week.

*I should also note that my position takes assumption as well based on a macro outlook. I admit that things could get bad enough that the FED restarts QE, at which point I will become extremely bullish again. Until that time, I'm all cash and shorting most everything. I'm waiting for a better buy-in point, and I'm not interesting in dollar-cost averaging stocks with highs I believe are completely ludacris.*
Click to expand...
What do you think about oil stocks?
 
#10,986
#10,986
mrorange211 said:
I understand this perspective but it's playing by the old rules. You are assuming that these companies will rebound significantly over their highs achieved during a pandemic with unprecedented QE. It was artificial and their stock prices then and now are nowhere near actual valuations of companies. Will MSFT, AAPL, TSLA and others achieve their highs from 2020/2021? It's possible but I think it may take over a decade. The fact is we are at the beginning of a major economic reshuffling. The FED is not going to bail out this market, and there is more bad news coming on the daily. IMO we aren't looking at a recession situation, but a depression. We are beginning to see the fault lines break in housing and retail this week.

*I should also note that my position takes assumption as well based on a macro outlook. I admit that things could get bad enough that the FED restarts QE, at which point I will become extremely bullish again. Until that time, I'm all cash and shorting most everything. I'm waiting for a better buy-in point, and I'm not interesting in dollar-cost averaging stocks with highs I believe are completely ludacris.*
Click to expand...

10-4, understood. I guess I'm more focused on solid dividend payers than growth. The good news is that I have about 2 decades to wait, plus a defined-benefit pension and a Roth IRA I rolled into from a previous employer's 401(k). This retail account I have is more of a hobby that has the potential to pay me back in the long run.

The dividends I do have coming in are being dumped back into my account, not DRIPped, so that I can hold the cash strategically until an opportunity strikes (i.e. the better buy-in points that you mentioned). My current account that I started (as a beer-money and fishing gear fund in retirement) back in November has <$10k in it, and the only (tiny) non-dividend position I have is WBD (which came from the spinoff earlier this year, and it tanked shortly thereafter so I'm holding onto it but not increasing it). Basically, I'm admittedly playing sandlot ball compared to most in here in the minors or pros, haha. That said, I'm enjoying the varying perspectives y'all present and taking what I can from them!
 
#10,988
#10,988
tbh said:
10-4, understood. I guess I'm more focused on solid dividend payers than growth. The good news is that I have about 2 decades to wait, plus a defined-benefit pension and a Roth IRA I rolled into from a previous employer's 401(k). This retail account I have is more of a hobby that has the potential to pay me back in the long run.

The dividends I do have coming in are being dumped back into my account, not DRIPped, so that I can hold the cash strategically until an opportunity strikes (i.e. the better buy-in points that you mentioned). My current account that I started (as a beer-money and fishing gear fund in retirement) back in November has <$10k in it, and the only (tiny) non-dividend position I have is WBD (which came from the spinoff earlier this year, and it tanked shortly thereafter so I'm holding onto it but not increasing it). Basically, I'm admittedly playing sandlot ball compared to most in here in the minors or pros, haha. That said, I'm enjoying the varying perspectives y'all present and taking what I can from them!
Click to expand...

If I were going your route, I would go with retailers (WMT, TGT, and AMZN) and basically only those until we get out of this, but I still wouldn't feel comfortable investing rn for reasons stated above.

And don't be so self-effacing. It is evident you know more about the market than most of the people I know. Just having that basic knowledge is a huge advantage that will have you retiring in style in 20+ yrs.
 
  • Like
Reactions: tbh
#10,989
#10,989
Orange. said:
What do you think about oil stocks?
Click to expand...

VDE has done great since January, but every recession brings a collapse in oil. It's time is limited like everything else.

Velo Vol said:
wut

The multiples aren't that high.
Click to expand...

I would say you are discounting the inability of people to purchase tech products of ANY KIND when they have trouble putting fuel in the car, buying food for the house, or paying for the energy to heat the water of their shower. Combined with the already high multiples puts me at valuing Apple rn at no more than $90 a share.
 
#10,990
#10,990
mrorange211 said:
VDE has done great since January, but every recession brings a collapse in oil. It's time is limited like everything else.



I would say you are discounting the inability of people to purchase tech products of ANY KIND when they have trouble putting fuel in the car, buying food for the house, or paying for the energy to heat the water of their shower. Combined with the already high multiples puts me at valuing Apple rn at no more than $90 a share.
Click to expand...

Americans have short memories. They buy smaller cars when we have step spikes in fuel prices, and as soon as prices recede they go back to full sized pick ups to drive to work and Escalades/Yukons to take the kids to schools and run around town.
They live in large houses. Usually poorly insulated.
 
#10,991
#10,991
mrorange211 said:
I would say you are discounting the inability of people to purchase tech products of ANY KIND when they have trouble putting fuel in the car, buying food for the house, or paying for the energy to heat the water of their shower. Combined with the already high multiples puts me at valuing Apple rn at no more than $90 a share.
Click to expand...
Even if you're right about the present, a decade is a long time in the market.
 
#10,995
#10,995
I went to 15% cash late last year. Been sitting looking for a good value, TGT is starting to look pretty good. Been watching TGT CEO Brian Cornell on Squawk Box this morning. He makes sense. I'm not in a big hurry to get that cash back in the market, but I may get serious after the close of the third quarter. TGT might be very interesting at that point.

Note: I tend to be no more than 2-5% cash most of the time.
 
#10,996
#10,996
Go aeiou said:
What do you think is the difference in a "Correction", "Crash", and "Bear Market"?
Click to expand...
They are all ultimately completely arbitrary terms that aren't worth dissecting, but I will anyway:

When people say "crash," they tend to be speaking of a short-term, perhaps just 1 or 2 trading sessions, precipitous decline. The term seems reserved for really extreme losses, like 10%+ in a major index. When people talk about the Crash of 1929 they are referring to a couple trading sessions (Black Thursday and Black Monday) in October of 1929. When people talk about the 1987 crash they are referring to October 19, 1987, the day of the 22.6% decline in the DJIA.

The term "correction" is used to describe pullbacks that occur within the context of a bull market, takes several weeks or perhaps even months to play out. The current market action I'd describe as a correction...for now.

A bear market is much longer and more protracted than a correction. The 20% threshold people put on it is stupid. If stocks trended flat to down over a 3 year period, and the total decline was 15%, I'd consider that a bear market. If the market continued to grind lower over the next several months, I'd consider the bull market to be over. That's another thing about correction vs. bear market...you only know after the fact. The initial 1929 plunge was considered a correction at the time.

There isn't some magical meaning to them, like if the S&P has pulled back 19.5% from its most recent high then it is "only" a correction, but if it falls 20% then that means it is a bear market and going to get worse.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Rocky_Top_Vol13 and Go aeiou
#10,997
#10,997
GoDucks349 said:
I went to 15% cash late last year. Been sitting looking for a good value, TGT is starting to look pretty good. Been watching TGT CEO Brian Cornell on Squawk Box this morning. He makes sense. I'm not in a big hurry to get that cash back in the market, but I may get serious after the close of the third quarter. TGT might be very interesting at that point.

Note: I tend to be no more than 2-5% cash most of the time.
Click to expand...

Cornell is v impressive as a CEO.
 
#10,998
#10,998
A couple weeks ago I changed my limit to buy AMZN from 2,121 to 2,000. I like it more for AWS than the retail. But two large revenue streams are never a bad thing. Actually I think of them as more of a fulfillment business than a retailer. They don’t have the same risk of carrying inventory as the big box stores have. They could also get a third with advertising sales if they grow video. They have a leg up on the other video content providers by being able to leverage their Prime membership subscriptions.

They are also really good at building out their distribution to cut costs in the supply chain. I’m now seeing Amazon delivery trucks in the neighborhood almost daily.

I expect their work-at-home/stay-at-home windfall to continue to grow post-pandemic.
 
  • Like
Reactions: TC 83
#10,999
#10,999
Thunder Good-Oil said:
A couple weeks ago I changed my limit to buy AMZN from 2,121 to 2,000. I like it more for AWS than the retail. But two large revenue streams are never a bad thing. Actually I think of them as more of a fulfillment business than a retailer. They don’t have the same risk of carrying inventory as the big box stores have. They could also get a third with advertising sales if they grow video. They have a leg up on the other video content providers by being able to leverage their Prime membership subscriptions.

They are also really good at building out their distribution to cut costs in the supply chain. I’m now seeing Amazon delivery trucks in the neighborhood almost daily.

I expect their work-at-home/stay-at-home windfall to continue to grow post-pandemic.
Click to expand...
You think they would ever spin off AWS?

I could see them face a lot of pressure in coming years from shareholders to do that. It's become such a huge part of their business, and it is so different from their fulfillment/retail business.
 
#11,000
#11,000
05_never_again said:
You think they would ever spin off AWS?

I could see them face a lot of pressure in coming years from shareholders to do that. It's become such a huge part of their business, and it is so different from their fulfillment/retail business.
Click to expand...

I think that it happens more from government meddling than an internal decision. I doubt that Bezos gives in to shareholder pressure - he’s not been pressured into paying out a dividend yet. Of course they haven’t been profitable for all that long to make the case for that. And they’re still investing in lots of CapEx.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top