All things STOCKS

[BigOrangeMojo]

over 4,000% gain on AMD, news just keeps breaking for the good.

Looking at AMD, NVDA, and TSMC, you can see the incompetence of INTC leadership over the past decade

 

[Firebirdparts]

It seems like anything chip related went up 50% in right at one month. I was holding UCTT during this. It makes you wonder, really, what is gonna be next and also, what took it so long? The chip shortage was 10 times as long as this run-up has been.

This remind me, sadly, of the dot-com bubble. My wife got interested in trading stocks and somehow or another she turned some focus on chip stocks. You'd think we'd have been happy, but oddly enough, it was really pretty bad.

My wife was a fan (30 years ago) of MU and AMAT. It might not be too late to get in there.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Looking at AMD, NVDA, and TSMC, you can see the incompetence of INTC leadership over the past decade

Did INTC lag because their mix was too much desktop PC oriented and too little game consoles, tablets, and PDAs?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I owned AMD 20 years ago when some west Asian dude was getting unlimited air time on CNBC to bash them at every opportunity. I owned AMD because I believed that INTC needed them to be a viable competitor to keep government regulators off of their case (and I also owned a Compaq laptop with an AMD CPU). I think that I ditched the AMD shares during one of the 100 +/- margin calls that I’ve survived.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Did INTC lag because their mix was too much desktop PC oriented and too little game consoles, tablets, and PDAs?

My opinion and my opinion only

For the past decade, INTC has focused its energy on branding versus innovation. They went heavy into the PC market while everyone was going into mobile, gaming, data centers, etc. They've monetized their early advantage well but there's a reason they've been flat for 20 years from a stock perspective while everyone else has skyrocketed.

Right now, INTC is approximately two cycles behind their peers. INTC has a perceived quality advantage; however, if you are a gamer or if you are on your phone all day, would you prefer the faster chip that lasts 4 years or the slower one that lasts 5 years. This perceived quality advantage may be helpful for a desktop that might be used for 5 years but when phones are only being used for 18 months.... Apple famously stopped using them for this reason.

And the chips needed for larger data centers, INTC can't even compete because they are so far behind.

There's a huge issue with the chip supply chain and INTC has had every opportunity to take advantage of that because they control the manufacturing but they are losing share in an environment where they should be killing it.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

My opinion and my opinion only

For the past decade, INTC has focused its energy on branding versus innovation. They went heavy into the PC market while everyone was going into mobile, gaming, data centers, etc. They've monetized their early advantage well but there's a reason they've been flat for 20 years from a stock perspective while everyone else has skyrocketed.

Right now, INTC is approximately two cycles behind their peers. INTC has a perceived quality advantage; however, if you are a gamer or if you are on your phone all day, would you prefer the faster chip that lasts 4 years or the slower one that lasts 5 years. This perceived quality advantage may be helpful for a desktop that might be used for 5 years but when phones are only being used for 18 months.... Apple famously stopped using them for this reason.

And the chips needed for larger data centers, INTC can't even compete because they are so far behind.

There's a huge issue with the chip supply chain and INTC has had every opportunity to take advantage of that because they control the manufacturing but they are losing share in an environment where they should be killing it.

I wouldn’t write them off. They still have scale. MSFT is the only one of the Four Horsemen of Tech that is on a really good track. Part of getting huge is it’s hard to keep growing. Microsoft, like Apple, has done an amazing job of continuously reinventing themself. I remember when MSFT was little more than MS-DOS/PC-DOS. Then they “borrowed” integrated software (Word, Excel) and networking (bye-bye Novell) and nearly destroyed Apple when Windows incorporated the mouse as an input device. They were a little slow to the cloud but are now knocking that out of the park.

In the long run, other than Apple, big software seems to have been far more viable than big hardware. Nvidia is interesting. Might have been lucky that they were well positioned while gaming has exploded. Dell leveraged their desktop riches to grab EMC. CSCO, like INTC, has been pretty meh. INTC might have a foot in the door with network security. Maybe INTC and CSCO should merge, although dot gov would have a hissy fit we’re that to be considered.

QCOM is a non-horseman that might be seeing signs of life. China nearly killed them off while stealing from them. Our government should be more focused on pushing back on the CCR than equalizing the wealth created by our innovators.

 

[Firebirdparts]

This is kinda curious. These stocks today trade for less $/share than they did in Y2K:
MU
INTC
especially and famously CSCO

I started wheeling INTC back when the CEO resigned for banging somebody on the payroll, I guess it was in 2019, but I don't actually remember. Scandals increase option prices and I am not of the opinion that he was going to be missed. I don't know the guy.

I don't know enough about chip generations, but TSMC makes most of the world's 5 nanometer chips. INTC cannot yet make 7 nanometer chips, but apparently that's an on-paper issue and maybe what they make today is pretty equivalent. So maybe they're really 1.5 generations behind.

INTC management has a plan to catch up, and part of that is they have to skip 7 nm and rename whatever they're gonna do 4 nanometer. The cost of this plan was apparently what caused INTC to gap down in October. I see an indication online that they may need to buy a lot of equipment from ASML. If Intel successfully launches 4, TSMC is going to launch 3, so they'll still be behind 1 year from now.

 

[Carp]

Cool 7% gain on WISH in just under a week. Didn't feel like holding through earnings today. General consensus on earnings is rather mediocre. On the flip side, it could spell a short squeeze if they beat earnings with low expectations. I'm doubtful though, given the global logistical issues, particularly in Asia.

 

[Go aeiou]

EV stocks
BLNK, QS, LCID, VW
There are more. Lots of price movement.
I've been accumulating QS. In at $19 avg. Sold some 2 days ago.
I'm going to test drive a VW id4 today.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I might buy COIN if it pulls back. But long term it’s going to be hard to identify the crypto exchange leader(s). Could be HOOD. Could be SCHW or MS or IBKR or BAC. Or CME or CBOE. Or NDAQ or ICE. Or V or MA or AXP. Too much volume and gamblers willing to give up 1% to trade to ignore the opportunity.

 

[Carp]

FUBO taking a dive today despite a rather solid earnings call. Missed EPS but revenues were we significantly higher yoy. And they just surpassed 2m subscribers. Probably worth a gamble below $25.

 

[tbh]

Howdy all. I've been looking into the notion of bit by bit picking up some solid dividend stocks for long-term holding onto. I've got an (what may be dumb) idea of buying some well-performing, stable dividend producers to supplement retirement income (looking at ~30 years vested in a defined benefit pension plan + somewhat-neglected Roth IRA rolled over from my retirement account from previous employment + Social Se...nevermind that last one). The crux of the idea being that I identify a handful (maybe 5 or 6) that have a good dividend track record with the potential for splits, buy a few shares each month over the next ~20 years, and keep reinvesting the dividend money into buying more shares too. Examples of stocks that some light digging around has brought to mind are EMR, MMM, HRL, etc. Nothing too flashy or exciting, as my IRA is positioned for more aggressive growth so that angle's pretty well covered at this point, I'd think. Basically, this obviously wouldn't be a primary income stream in retirement...more like a stable bumper crop of beer money when I retire to Costa Rica, perhaps.

Am I crazy? Daft? Might the VN Stock gurus have any recommendations?

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Howdy all. I've been looking into the notion of bit by bit picking up some solid dividend stocks for long-term holding onto. I've got an (what may be dumb) idea of buying some well-performing, stable dividend producers to supplement retirement income (looking at ~30 years vested in a defined benefit pension plan + somewhat-neglected Roth IRA rolled over from my retirement account from previous employment + Social Se...nevermind that last one). The crux of the idea being that I identify a handful (maybe 5 or 6) that have a good dividend track record with the potential for splits, buy a few shares each month over the next ~20 years, and keep reinvesting the dividend money into buying more shares too. Examples of stocks that some light digging around has brought to mind are EMR, MMM, HRL, etc. Nothing too flashy or exciting, as my IRA is positioned for more aggressive growth so that angle's pretty well covered at this point, I'd think. Basically, this obviously wouldn't be a primary income stream in retirement...more like a stable bumper crop of beer money when I retire to Costa Rica, perhaps.

Am I crazy? Daft? Might the VN Stock gurus have any recommendations?

Big pharma and healthcare. Big oil and energy. Big defense. Big financials.

 

[Firebirdparts]

Howdy all. I've been looking into the notion of bit by bit picking up some solid dividend stocks for long-term holding onto.

I have been thinking I might like AEP. I have no idea what is going to happen to these utilities when all the cars are electric. They have to grow. I don't think there is much chance of a split or even significant appreciation, but it seems like their returns are more-or-less controlled by society. My definition of dull.

 

[tbh]

I have been thinking I might like AEP. I have no idea what is going to happen to these utilities when all the cars are electric. They have to grow. I don't think there is much chance of a split or even significant appreciation, but it seems like their returns are more-or-less controlled by society. My definition of dull.

Dull is ok by me, haha. AEP looks intriguing. Duke Energy is another one I've been eyeballing as well, although I'm curious to see how the uptick in discussion about climate targets. Seems like the best bets are going to be in established companies that are making a pivot toward green energy (and whether any gov't incentives offset the costs of that pivot, at least somewhat).

 

[Carp]

I know I should learn my lesson with penny stocks, but one I'm kinda liking after today is BOXL. Education stock. They just posted their best quarter yet, but because they missed on EPS estimates, the stock fell 10-15% after hours.

However, I will be waiting a few days before I jump back into anything. Not trusting the market at the moment.

 

[tbh]

Picked up some JNJ. It's a solid dividend performer, plus the company spinning off their consumer health business in 18-24 months sounds spiffy (getting a twofer eventually). From what I've read, the dividend yields will likely dip initially after the split, but build back up over time...which fits into my strategy.

 

[Firebirdparts]

Are they splitting into Big Johnson and Small Johnson?

Solid company, obviously. Been growing over a very long trajectory.

 

[05_never_again]

Are they splitting into Big Johnson and Small Johnson?

Solid company, obviously. Been growing over a very long trajectory.

Remember these?

 

[mrorange211]

Gonna buy some WMT, LMT, and more PYPL today.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Picked up some JNJ. It's a solid dividend performer, plus the company spinning off their consumer health business in 18-24 months sounds spiffy (getting a twofer eventually). From what I've read, the dividend yields will likely dip initially after the split, but build back up over time...which fits into my strategy.

They are practically a healthcare mutual fund minus the regulations and red tape. Also, as investors pile in, the stock price just goes up instead of fund managers having to figure out how to use the cash.

 

[tbh]

Are they splitting into Big Johnson and Small Johnson?

Solid company, obviously. Been growing over a very long trajectory.

While it doesn't really matter, I do wonder what the company names will be post-split. The current name reminds me of that scene from "Blazing Saddles", though.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Increased my HOOD holdings by 4x today. Kind of risky. I’d rather take a 10% short term gain than hold it for a year or more. Too much of the revenue is from order flow and the government could instantly crush them.

 

[Firebirdparts]

I wish I had hung on to Lowe’s

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I’m thinking about opening a position in Smith & Wesson (SWBI). P/E is under 5x. The dividend yield is 1.3% and the dividend coverage ratio is huge. But the biggest reason is that they are fleeing the northeast to set up shop in beautiful Blount County, TN. The earnings probably tank until their move is complete, but they have a nice cushion.

Buy and hold… not to flip.

Kyle Rittenhouse’s weapon of choice BTW.