All things STOCKS

GoVolsDR

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My Healthcare plays:

HRC - Hill-Rom Corporation
BD - Becton Dickinson
LLY - Lilly and Company
SYK - Stryker
ANTM - Anthem
UNH - United Health Group
MCK - McKesson
HSIC - Henry Schein

POWER GAP

Keep shorting it until Bankrupt-tier:

GE - General Electric
 

marcusluvsvols

Blue collar skoller
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Communication Services
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Financials

•money managers/banks/misc:
BLK Blackrock: It has pulled back a lot since Fidelity started promoting the zero fee ETFs.
IVZ Invesco (huge pullback, I'm going to have to check it out)
STT State Street
SCHW Schwab
IBKR Interactive Brokers
ALLY Ally Financial

•the huge banks/brokers with about a trillion or more of assets:
BAC
C
GS
JPM
WFC
MS

•credit cards/payment processors:
MA MasterCard
V Visa
COF Capital One
FDC First Data Corp
PYPL PayPal Holdings (but pretty expensive right now)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Healthcare
•MDT Medtronic
•JNJ Johnson and Johnson
•CVS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Industrials
Materials
Real Estate
Technology
Utilities
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

* Not necessasarily all are in the S&P 500

I like the S&P 500 universe since there's less chance of fraud (theft of corporate assets) material enough to crash the stock, ownership (voting) is less concentrated, executive compensation won't be a huge percentage of revenues.

I like funds, especially ETFs, but unfortunately the worst companies in the index or sector are included and can dilute the results. But there is safety and management fees can be very reasonable for non-actively managed funds.

Thunder..

I have told yall before, but my entire 401k is a principal fund? Targeted for 2040, bc thats about the time i will start looking to retire..if i ever do, i will be 63yo...

With this kind of fund, i think i am invested in 70% pretty agressive stocks due to it being targeted to 22 years from now. Pretty sure a recession is very near...can i make them sell all stocks and put my money in bonds or something so i dont lose my butt any more than i already have? Should I?? I dont even know where to look up how bad of a beating i have taken...i need to call tomorrow and reset my password etc so i can check on my account details...i have just been ignoring it and steadily contributing 3% which my boss matches..i am scared to lose all of my retirement money.
 

1972 Grad

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Thunder..

I have told yall before, but my entire 401k is a principal fund? Targeted for 2040, bc thats about the time i will start looking to retire..if i ever do, i will be 63yo...

With this kind of fund, i think i am invested in 70% pretty agressive stocks due to it being targeted to 22 years from now. Pretty sure a recession is very near...can i make them sell all stocks and put my money in bonds or something so i dont lose my butt any more than i already have? Should I?? I dont even know where to look up how bad of a beating i have taken...i need to call tomorrow and reset my password etc so i can check on my account details...i have just been ignoring it and steadily contributing 3% which my boss matches..i am scared to lose all of my retirement money.
It will come back. Don't worry about it. 2040 is a long way off. This happens all the time.
 
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Thunder..

I have told yall before, but my entire 401k is a principal fund? Targeted for 2040, bc thats about the time i will start looking to retire..if i ever do, i will be 63yo...

With this kind of fund, i think i am invested in 70% pretty agressive stocks due to it being targeted to 22 years from now. Pretty sure a recession is very near...can i make them sell all stocks and put my money in bonds or something so i dont lose my butt any more than i already have? Should I?? I dont even know where to look up how bad of a beating i have taken...i need to call tomorrow and reset my password etc so i can check on my account details...i have just been ignoring it and steadily contributing 3% which my boss matches..i am scared to lose all of my retirement money.
You shouldn't be limited to just contributing to the 2040 Target Date fund. But selling now (after steep declines) is usually not the wise move. Nobody consistently sells at the exact top of a market and buys at the exact bottoms. The 2040 fund likely does some hedging and is certainly well diversified and they are investing in high quality companies. They are probably, smartly adding beaten down, blue chip stocks to their fund right now.

Like 1972 says, these pullbacks happen all the time. They are ironically good for long term investors that contribute to their plan on a regular basis as when there are pullbacks you will end up owning MORE shares of your investment.

You are in great shape with your boss matching 3%.

A recession will occur at some point. They happen all the time and the equity markets have already pulled back partly in anticipation of one. In my opinion it's kind of late to think about repositioning investments to time a pending recession.

I think that there are just several negatives all playing out, but it's not necessarily anything fundamentally unsound with our economy.

•Trump is working on re-writing unfavorable trade deals, which can hurt in the short term, but if he's successful will earn long term benefits with stronger employment and stronger companies based here. Even with all the shouting over tariffs and trade policy, we are geographically isolated, can be totally self sustaining, have (by far) the strongest military and economy on the planet, and the world still looks to us to grease the wheels of capitalism. We'll be fine for a long, long time.

•The United Kingdom is stumbling with BREXIT. That's not going to be a long term problem. They are our strong allies and they won't collapse.

•Democrats took the House and there's the possibility that they will work towards hiking taxes. It's happened before and shouldn't be catastrophic if they succeed (and they have a lot of elections to win first). It could be a drag, but hopefully even they don't plan to wreck the country. They'll back off or take a different approach if the economy starts tanking. Not to get too political, but corporate taxes are really close to where they need to be. They used to be some of the highest of all countries. That drives away businesses. Fundamental micro-economics says that a business shouldn't charge more or charge less than their competition. They should charge the same. Seems to me that that should apply to tax policy as well.

•Interest rates have risen and are expected to a bit more in 2019 (and then stabilize). They're still not historically outrageous. It just means housing prices won't increase as quickly (and that industry and the related industries won't be as prosperous) and all businesses (that aren't debt free) will have more interest expense on their income statements (although financials/banks will potentially earn more). They'll adjust. Eventually the Millennials will tire of paying ever increasing rent and they'll want to be home owners as well.

•Oil is cheap. Energy is still one of our largest industries, so they won't do as well. But this helps keep inflation in check. That's somewhat offset though if we don't trade as much with China (but less importing from China should help Mexico's economy as they'd positioned to grow by filling US consumer appetites). A prosperous Mexico isn't a threat to us.

•Big federal deficit. Higher interest rates are creating a lot of this. We have $21 trillion in national debt. Every 1% hike in interest rates will add another $210 billion to the deficit. But the domestic economy is still growing. It probably won't stay around 4%, but it could stay at 2% for a while. When the recession finally arrives, it probably doesn't persist for an extended period of time. And investments (your 2040 fund) should start increasing in value when there are signs of an end of the recession in sight.

On the other hand, employment is strong and that potentially contributes to a sound economy as much as anything. Job losses would trigger a harsher recession.

If you're really worried you might be able to invest in a gold fund inside of your 401(k). But long term, gold generates zero income and can't possibly keep up with investing in stocks which are simply a slice of ownership in businesses that generate income and therefore increase in value over time.

It really can't be that bad. The parking lots at stores right now are jammed full of expensive SUVs filled with lots of Christmas gifts.
 

Zues1

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Let me jump in here. I'm looking at retirement in early 2019.

My situation is different from Marcus. I'm heavily invested in stocks with my company sponsored Vanguard 401k, like most I've been riding the train that was full steam ahead for sometime. With the market roller coaster this year, fed hikes I'm bleeding.
I suppose I should be looking to move most of my stock investments to bonds?
 

DancingOutlaw

No sloppy, slimy eggs plz
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That depends on things like your age, retirement account size, projected expenses, risk appetite, etc. For example, my in laws are retired, both 60, and the company he retired from just eliminated the retiree health benefit. It’s something they can cover but that’s a big unexpected expense you may have to plan for. Your company should have a Vanguard rep to discuss this with, I would start there.
 

marcusluvsvols

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You shouldn't be limited to just contributing to the 2040 Target Date fund. But selling now (after steep declines) is usually not the wise move. Nobody consistently sells at the exact top of a market and buys at the exact bottoms. The 2040 fund likely does some hedging and is certainly well diversified and they are investing in high quality companies. They are probably, smartly adding beaten down, blue chip stocks to their fund right now.

Like 1972 says, these pullbacks happen all the time. They are ironically good for long term investors that contribute to their plan on a regular basis as when there are pullbacks you will end up owning MORE shares of your investment.

You are in great shape with your boss matching 3%.

A recession will occur at some point. They happen all the time and the equity markets have already pulled back partly in anticipation of one. In my opinion it's kind of late to think about repositioning investments to time a pending recession.

I think that there are just several negatives all playing out, but it's not necessarily anything fundamentally unsound with our economy.

•Trump is working on re-writing unfavorable trade deals, which can hurt in the short term, but if he's successful will earn long term benefits with stronger employment and stronger companies based here. Even with all the shouting over tariffs and trade policy, we are geographically isolated, can be totally self sustaining, have (by far) the strongest military and economy on the planet, and the world still looks to us to grease the wheels of capitalism. We'll be fine for a long, long time.

•The United Kingdom is stumbling with BREXIT. That's not going to be a long term problem. They are our strong allies and they won't collapse.

•Democrats took the House and there's the possibility that they will work towards hiking taxes. It's happened before and shouldn't be catastrophic if they succeed (and they have a lot of elections to win first). It could be a drag, but hopefully even they don't plan to wreck the country. They'll back off or take a different approach if the economy starts tanking. Not to get too political, but corporate taxes are really close to where they need to be. They used to be some of the highest of all countries. That drives away businesses. Fundamental micro-economics says that a business shouldn't charge more or charge less than their competition. They should charge the same. Seems to me that that should apply to tax policy as well.

•Interest rates have risen and are expected to a bit more in 2019 (and then stabilize). They're still not historically outrageous. It just means housing prices won't increase as quickly (and that industry and the related industries won't be as prosperous) and all businesses (that aren't debt free) will have more interest expense on their income statements (although financials/banks will potentially earn more). They'll adjust. Eventually the Millennials will tire of paying ever increasing rent and they'll want to be home owners as well.

•Oil is cheap. Energy is still one of our largest industries, so they won't do as well. But this helps keep inflation in check. That's somewhat offset though if we don't trade as much with China (but less importing from China should help Mexico's economy as they'd positioned to grow by filling US consumer appetites). A prosperous Mexico isn't a threat to us.

•Big federal deficit. Higher interest rates are creating a lot of this. We have $21 trillion in national debt. Every 1% hike in interest rates will add another $210 billion to the deficit. But the domestic economy is still growing. It probably won't stay around 4%, but it could stay at 2% for a while. When the recession finally arrives, it probably doesn't persist for an extended period of time. And investments (your 2040 fund) should start increasing in value when there are signs of an end of the recession in sight.

On the other hand, employment is strong and that potentially contributes to a sound economy as much as anything. Job losses would trigger a harsher recession.

If you're really worried you might be able to invest in a gold fund inside of your 401(k). But long term, gold generates zero income and can't possibly keep up with investing in stocks which are simply a slice of ownership in businesses that generate income and therefore increase in value over time.

It really can't be that bad. The parking lots at stores right now are jammed full of expensive SUVs filled with lots of Christmas gifts.
Excellent post Thunder. Thanks for your time. No need to worry about getting into politics with me , either. I am a conservative, and you are as well from what i have seen. Really appreciate your insight
 
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Excellent post Thunder. Thanks for your time. No need to worry about getting into politics with me , either. I am a conservative, and you are as well from what i have seen. Really appreciate your insight
I'm a Libertarian that thinks the Left have lost their minds. They've certainly pushed me further the the Right than I've ever been. But this isn't the Politics Forum.
 
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Let me jump in here. I'm looking at retirement in early 2019.

My situation is different from Marcus. I'm heavily invested in stocks with my company sponsored Vanguard 401k, like most I've been riding the train that was full steam ahead for sometime. With the market roller coaster this year, fed hikes I'm bleeding.
I suppose I should be looking to move most of my stock investments to bonds?
Bonds aren't all that great either. Mid-range, 3-7 year maturities, are a reasonable place to park cash. I think the yields are somewhere around 2.5-3%. Not spectacular, but their value shouldn't fall too much, if any, as interest rates rise. Longer term bonds and bond funds will lose value as interest rates rise. I don't think they pay much of a premium for the longer term right now. However I don't follow bond investing very closely. For people that worry a lot about volatile price movements, they might be better off overweighting their portfolio in the mid-range bond funds and they'll lose less sleep. They'll also be highly likely to not do as well as equity investors 5 or 10 years down the road.

It's a common mistake for retirees to not own enough equities. Dividends are pretty good right now. It makes sense to stick with well run fixed income funds that keep a large portion of their assets invested in dividend paying stocks. Instead of electing to reinvest dividends, taking them in cash would steadily shift the exposure away from stocks over time. I'd pay attention to the expense ratios of the funds... something that Vanguard has a great reputation for keeping low.

Diversification is the most important concept for almost everybody. Keeping a small percentage in emerging market funds and a larger piece in international equity funds is sound at any age. Keeping some exposure to the big broad market index funds (S&P 500) is also a good choice for just about everybody that invests.
 

1972 Grad

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Bonds aren't all that great either. Mid-range, 3-7 year maturities, are a reasonable place to park cash. I think the yields are somewhere around 2.5-3%. Not spectacular, but their value shouldn't fall too much, if any, as interest rates rise. Longer term bonds and bond funds will lose value as interest rates rise. I don't think they pay much of a premium for the longer term right now. However I don't follow bond investing very closely. For people that worry a lot about volatile price movements, they might be better off overweighting their portfolio in the mid-range bond funds and they'll lose less sleep. They'll also be highly likely to not do as well as equity investors 5 or 10 years down the road.

It's a common mistake for retirees to not own enough equities. Dividends are pretty good right now. It makes sense to stick with well run fixed income funds that keep a large portion of their assets invested in dividend paying stocks. Instead of electing to reinvest dividends, taking them in cash would steadily shift the exposure away from stocks over time. I'd pay attention to the expense ratios of the funds... something that Vanguard has a great reputation for keeping low.

Diversification is the most important concept for almost everybody. Keeping a small percentage in emerging market funds and a larger piece in international equity funds is sound at any age. Keeping some exposure to the big broad market index funds (S&P 500) is also a good choice for just about everybody that invests.
I have all that covered from dividend paying stocks, a bit in emerging markets , international equity fund, S&P 500 fund, mid and short term bond funds, etc. I am 69, retired, but have a wife who is only 53. I have investments set up to hopefully last her lifetime. Not worried about mine. I won't live long enough.
 

VolStrom

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I have all that covered from dividend paying stocks, a bit in emerging markets , international equity fund, S&P 500 fund, mid and short term bond funds, etc. I am 69, retired, but have a wife who is only 53. I have investments set up to hopefully last her lifetime. Not worried about mine. I won't live long enough.
When do plan on dying? I need a well looked after female to supplement my retirement instead of dragging on it!
 

VolStrom

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20-25 years max. She will be 73-78 then, and will make you pull your hair out, if you have any left by then.

Edit: Of course, there is always a chance I'll be dead this time next week. Who knows?
Well hell. I'm 61 and if my parents and grand parents are any indication, I'll be dead long before you, so never mind. Tell you wife to move along.
 

1972 Grad

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Well hell. I'm 61 and if my parents and grand parents are any indication, I'll be dead long before you, so never mind. Tell you wife to move along.
My parents both made it into their 90's (born in 1909 and 1914), and grandparents into their mid-80's. Mid-80's wasn't bad for people born in the 1880's and 90's ,like the GP's were.
 

OldandStillaVol

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TGO:

What stocks do you recommend buying in the face of a declining market? Any thoughts on airlines? It looks to me like oil prices will be depressed for awhile but travel remains high.

Merry Christmas everyone and here hoping for a better 2019 for stocks.

OSV
 
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TGO:

What stocks do you recommend buying in the face of a declining market? Any thoughts on airlines? It looks to me like oil prices will be depressed for awhile but travel remains high.

Merry Christmas everyone and here hoping for a better 2019 for stocks.

OSV
I'd look at solid companies and try to understand why they've pulled back. I'd start with the 30 components in the DJIA and those in the S&P 100.

Obviously if it's certain that the markets will keep falling we should buy the inverse bear funds. But IMO those are pretty dangerous considering how quickly market averages have pulled back while economic measures aren't all that bad.

I think that consumer staples and utilities are safer areas that investment capital flows to in tough times. But I like financials, energy, and healthcare when things turn around.

The stocks to beware of are the small and mid caps that have a lot of debt on their balance sheets.

Dividend payers tend to trade with less volatility, but don't just look at the yields. You must also check the EPS and the dividend payout ratio. A company that pays a huge dividend but also doesn't have earnings will not be able to sustain the dividend.

I have a very high risk tolerance. I'm kind of waiting before buying into this pull back, but if I was planning to buy in the next week or two I'd check out to see where JNJ, AAPL, AMZN, Google/Alpha, FB, Disney, CAT, FDX, UPS, Deere, NVDA, and BlackRock have traded. Really, most the the S&P 100 stocks don't scare me.

S&P 100 - Wikipedia
 
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Altria and Philip Morris scare me a little as far as S&P 100 components go, but they could do very well assuming they'll be big players in the age of legalized cannabis. I like Constellation Brands better.

Another stock that I like in unsteady and in prosperous times is Waste Management.

I also like United Rental assuming it's pulled back with the construction group. They're still fairly small and could do well as companies turn around, but aren't aggressively investing in their own equipment. But again, I'd check their debt load. Similarly, I'd check out Manpower and Robert Half. Companies might be reluctant to grow their head counts in this environment.
 

1972 Grad

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I'd look at solid companies and try to understand why they've pulled back. I'd start with the 30 components in the DJIA and those in the S&P 100.

Obviously if it's certain that the markets will keep falling we should buy the inverse bear funds. But IMO those are pretty dangerous considering how quickly market averages have pulled back while economic measures aren't all that bad.

I think that consumer staples and utilities are safer areas that investment capital flows to in tough times. But I like financials, energy, and healthcare when things turn around.

The stocks to beware of are the small and mid caps that have a lot of debt on their balance sheets.

Dividend payers tend to trade with less volatility, but don't just look at the yields. You must also check the EPS and the dividend payout ratio. A company that pays a huge dividend but also doesn't have earnings will not be able to sustain the dividend.

I have a very high risk tolerance. I'm kind of waiting before buying into this pull back, but if I was planning to buy in the next week or two I'd check out to see where JNJ, AAPL, AMZN, Google/Alpha, FB, Disney, CAT, FDX, UPS, Deere, NVDA, and BlackRock have traded. Really, most the the S&P 100 stocks don't scare me.

S&P 100 - Wikipedia
You need high risk tolerance to make money. The old saying is "scared money stays poor."
 
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I'm thinking about putting on a big (long) trade on Exela Technologies this week. Still digging through the financials and other published materials. I don't like taking big risks with low priced stocks (under $4/share, about $500M market cap). But it's been beaten up, has a large & diversified customer base with an international footprint across several industries, positive EBITDA, improving earnings (shrinking losses), and large ownership by hedge funds. It's also working through a recent consolidation/ownership combination... there should be favorable earnings comparisons with the resulting efficiencies. I stumbled across it when looking up who now owns BancTec... a company that I owned about 20 years ago (and did well with) that was taken away from me by the big boys and, iirc, taken private. I read that revenue per employee has recently gone up 4x to about $70k, which is tiny relative to big tech, but maybe they employ a lot of those Indian/Pakistani engineers for about $20k and CSRs for half that.

Greenlight Capital owns a big chunk and they've been having a really bad year. Maybe they've had to dump shares (or are harvesting losses) and the average daily volume is only about $500,000. That would put a lot of price pressure on the stock.

I might see something that really turns me off with it or just flat out not want to extend my risk exposure during this crazy, volatile, uncertain landscape.

It's had a big dive in this pull back. Are there any technical analysis guys on here that have an opinion on the price movement?
 

05_never_again

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It's had a big dive in this pull back. Are there any technical analysis guys on here that have an opinion on the price movement?
The technicals look horrendous. It's a classic falling knife - you could buy it today and get a nice bounce, but there's nothing in the technicals to indicate it could be at or nearing a bottom. It sliced right through the prior support from Oct 17/Spring 2018 around 4.50. It's quite oversold, due for a bounce, but I would expect it to have trouble around 4.50 if it rallied back up there. Excluding the few who purchased right at the low a few days ago, every single person who bought the stock since the IPO is in a losing position.

If you like the fundamentals, throw some play money at it and see what happens.
 

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