Wednesday, December 10th at 2pm: the final FOMC rate decision of 2025
Powell speaks at 2:30pm
====================================
Tentative 2026 FOMC Meeting Dates:
January 27-28: Decision on Jan 28.
March 17-18: Decision on Mar 18.
April 28-29: No SEP, focus on data.
June 16-17: Decision on June 17 (Mid-year SEP).
July 28-29: No SEP, data-driven.
September 15-16: Decision on Sep 16 (Pre-autumn SEP).
October 27-28: No SEP, adjustments.
December 8-9: Decision on Dec 9 (Final SEP for 2026).
====================================
SEP (quarterly Summary of Economic Prijections):
What the SEP Includes:
Economic Forecasts: Projections for future GDP growth, inflation (PCE), and the unemployment rate.
Interest Rate Path: Where each participant thinks the federal funds rate should be over the coming years, including longer-run values.
"Dot Plot": A visual representation showing each participant's view on the appropriate federal funds rate for various timeframes.
Long-Run Goals: Views on the economy's natural state, like the natural unemployment rate or potential output growth.
When it's Released:
The SEP is released four times a year (March, June, September, December) as an addendum to the FOMC meeting minutes, following the meeting where projections are submitted.
Why it's Important:
It provides insight into the individual thinking of the Federal Reserve members, not just the committee's consensus.
It helps markets understand the Fed's outlook and potential future policy shifts.