‘23 AL OT Stanton Ramil (Michigan St. commit)

#352
#352
Recruiting services exist to rank players for the sake of fans. Said fans don't have the time, talent, access, or data to rank players effectively. Coaching staffs do, and will use their own metrics and opinions for fit and functionality.

I mean this board argues over a kid's 40 time. I bet the UT staff doesn't. They also scout and grade all of a player's film. Do recruiting services do this for all ranked players? Grading film isn't an opinion. And standards vary.

Recruiting rankings are like top 25 team rankings. They might correlate with head to head winners, but lots of upsets happen every week.
 
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#354
#354
BigOrangeTrain said:
Lol. Yes talent wins. Yet you want to discredit the recruiting services when actual data proves you wrong. Does Saban check the 247 account when he offers a kid? I have no clue and neither do you so don’t waste your time thinking you do. I wonder though. It’s safe to assume that Saban probably offers more 3* players than 4-5*. Yet I wonder why he doesn’t take more 3* players? Could it be that the 4-5* players that the services rank, are just better players?
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What makes you ASSume Saban makes more committable offers to 3 stars?

Probability of success in offering physically gifted guys already given the opportunity to excel at the HS level before their SR season is greater than those that aren't. Check. But high stars are not a guarantee of success and lower stars, or even no stars is not a guaranteed limiter of success either.

Wish UT had signed the 9 three stars from the 2022 NFL draft first round, not to mention the one two star and two unranked players. That is 12 of 32. Services misses are out there according to which ever service(s) CBS used in their analysis. Wish I had that data for the entire draft, looked and can't find it. Would also like to see a study of how many kids the big timers have commit entered their Sr year as three stars and get a bump after the big boys court them.

Like I said in another thread, I would like to see some statistics on 3 stars draft rate at the BCS top 30 teams only. Those would have some real statistical significance and would PROBABLY still lean heavily toward the higher stars, but not nearly as heavy. We are not competing with BCS bottom feeders and FCS schools for kids we are all in on. I have an unfounded fear that a lot of guys get the the 3 star status for going to camps and other communications with the services.
 
#355
#355
sjt18 said:
No. You worship them as if they're the infallible rule of all things college football. You think that Saban's classes are talented because the sites rank his recruits high. When it is far more that they rank his recruits high because he does a great job of recognizing and recruiting talent. You give them FAR more credit than is due.


Saban like every other coach prioritizes some players over others. He may not recruit more 3* than 4/5*. He's in a space where he can be selective more than anyone else. But those players would have been his targets and would have been talented if the recruiting sites did not exist.
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I am sure that the services try to get the ratings correct however we all have noticed than when an Alabama offers a kids, the rating somehow jumps. So in the end, what is the correct rating?
The big unknown is usually not the rating of the talent but the maturity level. I have seen it across athletics & academics. It is hard to determine who actually has the maturity leaving home at a young age to concentrate on the next level. I have seen some of the brightest students fail because they could not focus with all the distractions.
 
#358
#358
Weezer said:
Duncan is a DL 'til he ain't. His first shot will be at DL. My understanding is that's where he wants to play. If he doesn't work out there, he'll probably get a shot at OL. But that's not where he was recruited to.
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As I said in another thread, if he can grow into an athletic DT, that would make sense, especially given that we don't really have another in this class (yet, at least). But choosing SDE (he's sure not an EDGE) over LT, where his upside is higher and the position is far more coveted in the NFL, sure is throwing away a lot of money because "that's where he wants to play."

Jason Witten wanted to play DE. Guessing he's glad Fulmer didn't care.
 
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#359
#359
I think Duncan can be a hand in the ground De or DT. I think he has the mentality and ability for it. He is already in 280 range. He is for sure going to get the opportunity for D first. Now if it doesn’t work out he will move to OL. But I am betting he is on D side. GBO!!!!
 
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#360
#360
brentcontractor said:
I am sure that the services try to get the ratings correct however we all have noticed than when an Alabama offers a kids, the rating somehow jumps. So in the end, what is the correct rating?
The big unknown is usually not the rating of the talent but the maturity level. I have seen it across athletics & academics. It is hard to determine who actually has the maturity leaving home at a young age to concentrate on the next level. I have seen some of the brightest students fail because they could not focus with all the distractions.
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Like someone said, they can look at measurables. They can look at who is recruiting a particular player. They can look at camp performances and All Star games. And to a lesser degree they can try to watch him play and judge what they can knowing that the competition level isn't what it will be in college. So they have information that they use. Then they hedge their bets by limiting the numbers of 4/5* ratings they hand out.

Remember what their purpose is. It isn't to pick the 500 most talented players in the country. It isn't to predict championships. It is to sell their product. If you think about it... they have a pretty good gig going. They aren't held accountable for the talent they miss. They aren't held accountable for the guys they overrate. Fans just keep eating it up when they hand out ratings.
 
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#361
#361
GregAmsler said:
As I said in another thread, if he can grow into an athletic DT, that would make sense, especially given that we don't really have another in this class (yet, at least). But choosing SDE (he's sure not an EDGE) over LT, where his upside is higher and the position is far more coveted in the NFL, sure is throwing away a lot of money because "that's where he wants to play."

Jason Witten wanted to play DE. Guessing he's glad Fulmer didn't care.
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I don't think this staff is the kind to make false promises. If they were, we would've landed the Wade twins last year. He may not stay at DL, but I fully believe they'll give him a fair shot there if that's what he wants. And to make that promise, I have to assume they see some potential for him at the position.
 
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#362
#362
sjt18 said:
Like someone said, they can look at measurables. They can look at who is recruiting a particular player. They can look at camp performances and All Star games. And to a lesser degree they can try to watch him play and judge what they can knowing that the competition level isn't what it will be in college. So they have information that they use. Then they hedge their bets by limiting the numbers of 4/5* ratings they hand out.

Remember what their purpose is. It isn't to pick the 500 most talented players in the country. It isn't to predict championships. It is to sell their product. If you think about it... they have a pretty good gig going. They aren't held accountable for the talent they miss. They aren't held accountable for the guys they overrate. Fans just keep eating it up when they hand out ratings.
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Bingo.

And it's a good gig for more than the services. The services get their money without having to be right, and people who couldn't break down film or talent if their life depended on it get to posture in recruiting discussions as though they're experts on the quality of recruits and classes.
 
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#364
#364
Orange_Crush said:
Bingo.

And it's a good gig for more than the services. The services get their money without having to be right, and people who couldn't break down film or talent if their life depended on it get to posture in recruiting discussions as though they're experts on the quality of recruits and classes.
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The weathermen of football
 
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#368
#368
Yeah. I recall Charles Davis telling the story about his class having 8 QBs signed in it. All wanted to play QB and then they saw TRob throw. Charles said the line was 7 deep after practice waiting to talk about changing positions with Coach Majors.
 
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#369
#369
BigOrangeTrain said:
Bama, OSU, Clemson, UGA. You weigh in this every time and you lose every time. The fact remains that the teams that win at the highest rate have the most 4 and 5* players. You can try all the mental gymnastics you want but you cannot get around that fact.

Jesus Christ dude you are dense. Bama wins because they get the best talent. Period. You lose.
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What he’s saying is that there’s not necessarily a direct correlation between a player’s ranking on a recruiting service and their actual talent level. That’s not a difficult concept to grasp either, but go on calling other people dense, dude.
 
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#370
#370
Weezer said:
I don't think this staff is the kind to make false promises. If they were, we would've landed the Wade twins last year. He may not stay at DL, but I fully believe they'll give him a fair shot there if that's what he wants. And to make that promise, I have to assume they see some potential for him at the position.
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This staff definitely doesn’t. They give the kid a legitimate shot at the position he wants to play or they tell them upfront what position they want them at in recruiting. We have seen several examples in just one year with this crew. It is probably why we have suprisingly had little transfer from key talentZ
 
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#372
#372
HoleInTheRoof said:
Yeah the whole “gimme a kid who really really really wants to be a Vol” mindset is pollyanna nonsense.

I’d kill to line up and play for this team but I’m 44 and probably run a 5 second 40 now. But hey, I’ll give my all. You goobers want me at Free Safety?

Edit; I’m probably much slower than 5 that listed 5 second 40.
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You're doing better than me. I'm trying to get down to a 4.4 second 10.
 
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#373
#373
HoleInTheRoof said:
Yeah the whole “gimme a kid who really really really wants to be a Vol” mindset is pollyanna nonsense.

I’d kill to line up and play for this team but I’m 44 and probably run a 5 second 40 now. But hey, I’ll give my all. You goobers want me at Free Safety?

Edit; I’m probably much slower than 5 that listed 5 second 40.
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Maybe they are talking about lower ranked guys that became VFL's like Inky Johnson or J.J. McCleskey. Or even some step up to the plate guys like Daryl Dickey. You can "gimme" a few of those every year, schollie or walkon. I can pass on some of the high star guys that seem to have no loyalty to the cause.
 
#374
#374
sjt18 said:
That's a really good way to describe them. They're "incidental". They report trends and to a degree likelihoods They share/copy/report what actual meteorologists research. They don't do much of their own work. They're journalists doing reporting.
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Perfect description.
 
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