I don't see how you can say that Blu-Ray is going to win the format war... I don't see anything that can back that up. I think we're going to be stuck with two high def disc formats for a long time. It will be similar to the differences between DVD-R and DVD+R. Players and burners will be supporting both.
For one, it's a better technology. Blu-Ray has 60% more capacity.
Secondly, Blu-Ray has far more studio support than HD DVD. Sony, Columbia, MGM, 20th Century Fox, Buena Vista, Walt Disney, Pixar and Lionsgate are all exclusive to Blu-Ray releases. Conversely, Universal and Weinstein are the only companies exclusive to HD DVD. Warner Bros., New Line, HBO, Paramount and Dreamworks are the neutral parties. Although Paramount and Dreamworks have shown more partiality towards Blu-Ray than HD DVD, while Warner, New Line and HBO have shown more partiality towards HD DVD. Time Warner put the kaibosh on that, though, basically telling Warner and its subsidiary companies that their business is selling movies, not technology, and that all releases must be done equally on both formats. Warner is going to be releasing future movies on a disc that is readable by both HD DVD and Blu-Ray lenses.
Of the top 25 highest-grossing movies of 2006, here's how it breaks down in terms of availability on which format:
- The top 5 highest earners are exclusively available on Blu-Ray.
- 8 of the top 10 are exclusively available on Blu-Ray.
- Of the top 25 highest earners of '06, Blu-Ray has 19 available, 13 of which are exclusive.
- Of the top 25 highest earners of '06, HD DVD has 8 available, 2 of which are exclusive.
IMO movies are gonna make or break this technology, and Sony is absolutely destroying Toshiba at the moment with almost 70% of the market share.
With Blu-Ray players still costing at least $500, this is going to put a lot of PS3's in a lot of houses.