Affordability discussion (split from Iran thread)

#76
#76
Ttucke11 said:
I get the joke and I guess I'm being throw in with the liberals, but a quick scan of East Germantown housing prices....yea I'm sticking with my take that millennials in their early 30s with kids are definitely receiving some major parental kickbacks to have the ability to live there šŸ˜‚
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nypost.com

Nearly a quarter of young homebuyers receive family help for down payments

A new Redfin report shows exactly how many Gen Z and millennial buyers rely on their families for support ā€” but thereā€™s more than meets the eye.
nypost.com nypost.com
 
#77
#77
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#78
#78
Ttucke11 said:
I get the joke and I guess I'm being throw in with the liberals, but a quick scan of East Germantown housing prices....yea I'm sticking with my take that millennials in their early 30s with kids are definitely receiving some major parental kickbacks to have the ability to live there šŸ˜‚
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Could be some?

But mostly I just see happy, successful couples, with good jobs. Living a quintessential (upper)middle class existence.
 
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#81
#81
85SugarVol said:
Could be some?

But mostly I just see happy, successful couples, with good jobs. Living a quintessential (upper)middle class existence.
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I'd bet most, but it's irrelevant really. I don't think poorly of your opinions. I just find your view a little skewed in relation to a normal Americans' experience.

Really I just want what you're describing to be an attainable goal for all young 30s couples who work hard. I could care less if it's a "good" job. I want the garbage collector and office secretary to be able to work, afford a home, and raise a kid or two without going bankrupt like it used to be.
 
#86
#86
EasternVol said:
The point is what QOL one can get with a degree. Let's not forget the change in cost of a degree in those 35 years.
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Sure, the value of degree (your income minus cost) has diminished and thatā€™s directly correlated with the supply that you told me didnā€™t matter
 
#87
#87
Ttucke11 said:
He's so obtuse he didn't see I could literally run every single demographic, cost analysis, and wage analysis and it all comes back to housing costing 2x the amount of spending power it used to.

But he worked hard and young people are lazy and should save their money while paying $2100 in rent for a 500 sqft apartment.
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Iā€™m very openly telling you that youā€™re using the wrong metrics. If you want to know what the right metric is, Iā€™d be glad to help.

The right metric would be hours worked to afford the median home. Today you would have to work less than you would in 1996 to afford the median home.
 

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#92
#92
I'm glad this was split because I wanted to add this question. Be kind as I'm not a market or economics guy. I have a basic understanding but that's about it.

How much of our issue is due to us being a service based economy?

Hear me out, we don't manufacture a great deal compared to imports. So everything is either service added to the good or installation of those goods. With that in mind isn't there a saturation point...... In that at some point just adding more to the bottom line for that good or service doesn't it at some point become unsustainable/unaffordable?

If so how much of that is our issue......... Along with our government spending like a trust fund kid with a black card?
 
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#93
#93
Vol8188 said:
Sure, the value of degree (your income minus cost) has diminished and thatā€™s directly correlated with the supply that you told me didnā€™t matter
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It doesnā€™t matter that much is what I said and it doesnā€™t. Hasnā€™t the share of jobs requiring a degree doubled since 1990?
 
#94
#94
EasternVol said:
It doesnā€™t matter that much is what I said and it doesnā€™t. Hasnā€™t the share of jobs requiring a degree doubled since 1990?
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It obviously matters a lot. Not according to chat gpt. I donā€™t care enough to look beyond that, but per chat gpt itā€™s less than the increase in degree holders. By ā€œdoubledā€ they couldā€™ve meant total jobs, but it doesnā€™t seem to have doubled in terms of % of jobs requiring a degree

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#95
#95
Vol8188 said:
It obviously matters a lot. Not according to chat gpt. I donā€™t care enough to look beyond that, but per chat gpt itā€™s less than the increase in degree holders. By ā€œdoubledā€ they couldā€™ve meant total jobs, but it doesnā€™t seem to have doubled in terms of % of jobs requiring a degree

View attachment 819229
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What I picked up was a doubling in share of jobs from about 20% to about 40%.
 
#97
#97
hog88 said:
Could part of the reason be a lot of the younger (mid 20s through 30s) generation doesn't want to own a home? They value flexibility and leisure time more?
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It probably is. But 13 years is a huge gap and cost of housing is undoubtedly a big factor.

The indirect problem here is that home ownership is the best way to build wealth and if that process doesn't start until 40 they're really missing out.
 
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#98
#98
McDad said:
according to Google:
1995 median household income = 34k
1995 median home price =115k - 134k

2026 median household income = 84k - 90k
2026 median home price = 400k - 420k

both are close to about 4 times income for home price. 2026 is slightly more.
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Per chatgpt:

Housing affordability has changed dramatically.
  • Since the late 1990s, U.S. home prices have increased far faster than median wages.
  • After the 2008 Financial Crisis, home prices eventually surged againā€”especially after 2020.
  • Down payments and monthly mortgage costs now require many more years of saving.
Example trends:
  • Median home price ~1998: ~$150k
  • Median home price ~2024: ~$420k+
  • Median wages did not triple in the same period.

Result: people need more time to save for down payments and qualify for mortgages.
 
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#99
#99
hog88 said:
Could part of the reason be a lot of the younger (mid 20s through 30s) generation doesn't want to own a home? They value flexibility and leisure time more?
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ā€œBack in the 1990s, nearly 70% of the total wealth belonged to working-age households. Since then, the share of wealth has steadily shifted. Now, roughly 65% is with those 60 and up.

Due to older Americans having had more time to watch their assets grow and to experience compounding returns, itā€™s likely the wealth has become more concentrated to those generations.

This could suggest owning assets like real estate or securities for the long-term results in greater value. In comparison, younger generations havenā€™t had nearly as much time to watch their assets grow.

The cost of living should also be factored in.

Take housing as an example. As of Q1 2025, the average sales price of homes sold in the U.S. was $514,200, per the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Back in Q1 1964, that number was $19,600. That same $19,600 house would only cost $205,357 when adjusted for inflation.ā€œ

 
#100
#100
The Knoxville area has ranked at or near the highest rate of home cost increase in the nation in the past 6+ years. Desirable areas have easily doubled in price in that time, and many have actually tripled in just over a decade. Homes in our old Lenoir City neighborhood have rocketed from $200k to $700-800k since 2009 (when we moved out of there). $1M in Farragut gets you a nice but not extravagant 4-5 BR. There are 26 homes in my zip code alone for sale over a million, several over 2, and they are not on the water (like many in the 37922 zip). It's unreal.

At the end on the day, it's simple economics -- the demand from the influx of population leaving higher-cost states has overwhelmed the supply, and they are willing to pay. It has killed younger people and families living on lower or middle-income wages.
 
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