bleedingTNorange
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I haven’t been doing the postgame reports, probably won’t on any sort of regular basis, maybe some thoughts here and there but been too busy to consistently get those done. Figured with the OOC ending and a few days before we start conference play I would give some general thoughts, opinions, predictions etc…
1. In large part we’re exactly where expected/projected preseason, feels a bit disappointing given the start to Vegas before losing 3 in a row, but we’re 14th on both KP & Barttorvik which is where we were preseason iirc, and 10-3 is also what we were projected to go OOC. Again, it feels like a disappointment due to how it started, but big picture it pretty much was as expected.
2. So what are we if that was what was expected? I’m not sure anyone knows, I think this team is the furthest away from its potential ceiling and from Barnes figuring things out than any team he’s had here. Now maybe he never does with this team, no way to know, but we’ve never seen him still tinkering with lineup as the calendar changes to a new year the way he still is with this squad. Again not necessarily a bad thing, you want to be playing your best in March, not November, so there is time.
3. I mentioned it at the time, but I think Cade Phillips injury could turn out to be a silver lining for this team…he doesn’t fit great with the other pieces that are going to play, and given the need for offensive production he’s not a guy that can really go get his like Carey & Estrella, so both getting more minutes was paramount and now happening with him out.
4. The 2 spot was the question preseason and still is a question, Boswell appears your best option there, but would love to see a little more aggression there. He’s shooting very well from 3 and it looks good, but he’s also shown a great ability to finish at the rim, something we didn’t know he had in his bag, would love to see him continue to uptick the offensive aggression. Behind him, Abram has his moments as do Burg and Henderson, you can’t really keep playing them all so again someone separating themselves would be something I’m sure Barnes would like to see.
5. The recent emergence of Amari Evans clouds the whole rotation a bit, he gives Barnes another option and can play some 4 with his size also if that’s something they want to do. He missed a lot of time this off season so it’s great seeing him finding footing and developing, whether it’s this year or in the future he’s showing some nice flashes. We’re so deep in the post you don’t feel a need to go small, but if you do him at the 4 with Ament at the 3 or even Boswell at the 3 could be some fun options against smaller teams wanting to spread you out.
6. Speaking of the bigs, I love the 4 we’ve got and would put our frontline up against any in the country from a 4 deep standpoint. With that said, idk if Barnes will do it but would love to see Carey plugged into the starting spot, thus taking a few minutes away from Brown. By starting Brown each half you’re essentially giving him 8-10mpg guaranteed just from a first TO standpoint, you could make a change prior, but most of the time those starters are going til first media timeout. I would like to see the 80 minutes at the 4/5 split more like 30/25/25 between Okpara, Estrella & Carey…now I know that those last 2 have needed to improve conditioning and JP has worked back from injury so no reason to this point to rush it, but those 2 guys are so good offensively and efficient it brings a whole different look to this team, they’re also your 2 best rebounders. I love Brown and much like Evans love his future, but ideally he’s our 4th option and a 5-8mpg off the bench imo.
7. Gillespie has been really good, I don’t feel like it’s been discussed as much as it should or maybe taken for granted to an extent, but he’s playing really well and seems to be getting better and better with each game understanding what Barnes wants from him and how to run this team and be a leader. He’s right there with what Clayton was doing last year at Florida, even better from an assists standpoint, great to see from the hometown kid.
8. Obviously have to talk about Ament…imo he’s been about what should’ve been expected overall if you were fair, he’s putting up over 15ppg, that’s exactly where the number was most set preseason for a recruit like him. If you extrapolate his numbers to 30mpg he’s right at 18ppg, which I expect his minutes to increase as conference play starts. He’s obviously not shot great, he’s struggled at times, but he also defends really well, rebounds it well, and is an underrated passer…Barnes loves him as Ament does things the right way every day, they knew he wasn’t a finished product and that getting a better him in March was the goal, we will continue to probably ride a roller coaster with him, but you hope to continue to see a trend upwards from a consistency standpoint.
9. Free throws and turnovers have got to be a continued focus for this team and staff, the turnovers seem to be trending right as we’ve been 12 or less 4 games in a row, that’s a reasonable number although you’d prefer it to be a touch less. The free throws though continue to be an issue, we’re now under 70% on the year, which ranks 241st on the year, that is awful. Both of those areas can directly improve our offense, we lead the nation in offensive rebounding %, we rebound half of our missed shots, that is insane, but that’s why those stats are so important as well. When we don’t turn the ball over we typically either make a shot, miss a shot and get our own rebound, or we get fouled…right now we’re costing ourselves points at the line each night out. In our 3 losses we combined to shoot 33/55 from the FT line, that’s 60%, that’s also 22 missed points (more when you add in 1 and 1s), and you lost those 3 games by a total of 20 points, now I don’t expect us to shoot 100% but you cost yourself a chance to have 2-3 more wins as of today because of our horrid FT shooting. Carey, Estrella, Okpara & Boswell are the main culprits as of today that really need to improve.
10. So we sit 10-3, we’re projected 22-9(12-6), never know but that’s likely 3/4 seed territory in the NCAAT which again is about what was expected preseason. Looking at the start to SEC play the first half is definitely tougher than the back half, at least how it looks as of today with how teams are projected to finish. 3 of our top 4 toughest projected games come within the first 6 games of SEC play, starting 3-3 would probably be seen as a win big picture wise. If you split the SEC 18 games in 2 going 6-3/6-3 would get you to that 12-6, the first half definitely appears tougher though, so if you can indeed manage to go 6-3 over the first 9 that would certainly be considered a win imo.
Looking forward to watching this season play out, again it feels like we have so many unknowns and toys to play with, watching Barnes try and figure the best way to assemble pieces has been fun, here’s to hoping he finds the right combo.
1. In large part we’re exactly where expected/projected preseason, feels a bit disappointing given the start to Vegas before losing 3 in a row, but we’re 14th on both KP & Barttorvik which is where we were preseason iirc, and 10-3 is also what we were projected to go OOC. Again, it feels like a disappointment due to how it started, but big picture it pretty much was as expected.
2. So what are we if that was what was expected? I’m not sure anyone knows, I think this team is the furthest away from its potential ceiling and from Barnes figuring things out than any team he’s had here. Now maybe he never does with this team, no way to know, but we’ve never seen him still tinkering with lineup as the calendar changes to a new year the way he still is with this squad. Again not necessarily a bad thing, you want to be playing your best in March, not November, so there is time.
3. I mentioned it at the time, but I think Cade Phillips injury could turn out to be a silver lining for this team…he doesn’t fit great with the other pieces that are going to play, and given the need for offensive production he’s not a guy that can really go get his like Carey & Estrella, so both getting more minutes was paramount and now happening with him out.
4. The 2 spot was the question preseason and still is a question, Boswell appears your best option there, but would love to see a little more aggression there. He’s shooting very well from 3 and it looks good, but he’s also shown a great ability to finish at the rim, something we didn’t know he had in his bag, would love to see him continue to uptick the offensive aggression. Behind him, Abram has his moments as do Burg and Henderson, you can’t really keep playing them all so again someone separating themselves would be something I’m sure Barnes would like to see.
5. The recent emergence of Amari Evans clouds the whole rotation a bit, he gives Barnes another option and can play some 4 with his size also if that’s something they want to do. He missed a lot of time this off season so it’s great seeing him finding footing and developing, whether it’s this year or in the future he’s showing some nice flashes. We’re so deep in the post you don’t feel a need to go small, but if you do him at the 4 with Ament at the 3 or even Boswell at the 3 could be some fun options against smaller teams wanting to spread you out.
6. Speaking of the bigs, I love the 4 we’ve got and would put our frontline up against any in the country from a 4 deep standpoint. With that said, idk if Barnes will do it but would love to see Carey plugged into the starting spot, thus taking a few minutes away from Brown. By starting Brown each half you’re essentially giving him 8-10mpg guaranteed just from a first TO standpoint, you could make a change prior, but most of the time those starters are going til first media timeout. I would like to see the 80 minutes at the 4/5 split more like 30/25/25 between Okpara, Estrella & Carey…now I know that those last 2 have needed to improve conditioning and JP has worked back from injury so no reason to this point to rush it, but those 2 guys are so good offensively and efficient it brings a whole different look to this team, they’re also your 2 best rebounders. I love Brown and much like Evans love his future, but ideally he’s our 4th option and a 5-8mpg off the bench imo.
7. Gillespie has been really good, I don’t feel like it’s been discussed as much as it should or maybe taken for granted to an extent, but he’s playing really well and seems to be getting better and better with each game understanding what Barnes wants from him and how to run this team and be a leader. He’s right there with what Clayton was doing last year at Florida, even better from an assists standpoint, great to see from the hometown kid.
8. Obviously have to talk about Ament…imo he’s been about what should’ve been expected overall if you were fair, he’s putting up over 15ppg, that’s exactly where the number was most set preseason for a recruit like him. If you extrapolate his numbers to 30mpg he’s right at 18ppg, which I expect his minutes to increase as conference play starts. He’s obviously not shot great, he’s struggled at times, but he also defends really well, rebounds it well, and is an underrated passer…Barnes loves him as Ament does things the right way every day, they knew he wasn’t a finished product and that getting a better him in March was the goal, we will continue to probably ride a roller coaster with him, but you hope to continue to see a trend upwards from a consistency standpoint.
9. Free throws and turnovers have got to be a continued focus for this team and staff, the turnovers seem to be trending right as we’ve been 12 or less 4 games in a row, that’s a reasonable number although you’d prefer it to be a touch less. The free throws though continue to be an issue, we’re now under 70% on the year, which ranks 241st on the year, that is awful. Both of those areas can directly improve our offense, we lead the nation in offensive rebounding %, we rebound half of our missed shots, that is insane, but that’s why those stats are so important as well. When we don’t turn the ball over we typically either make a shot, miss a shot and get our own rebound, or we get fouled…right now we’re costing ourselves points at the line each night out. In our 3 losses we combined to shoot 33/55 from the FT line, that’s 60%, that’s also 22 missed points (more when you add in 1 and 1s), and you lost those 3 games by a total of 20 points, now I don’t expect us to shoot 100% but you cost yourself a chance to have 2-3 more wins as of today because of our horrid FT shooting. Carey, Estrella, Okpara & Boswell are the main culprits as of today that really need to improve.
10. So we sit 10-3, we’re projected 22-9(12-6), never know but that’s likely 3/4 seed territory in the NCAAT which again is about what was expected preseason. Looking at the start to SEC play the first half is definitely tougher than the back half, at least how it looks as of today with how teams are projected to finish. 3 of our top 4 toughest projected games come within the first 6 games of SEC play, starting 3-3 would probably be seen as a win big picture wise. If you split the SEC 18 games in 2 going 6-3/6-3 would get you to that 12-6, the first half definitely appears tougher though, so if you can indeed manage to go 6-3 over the first 9 that would certainly be considered a win imo.
Looking forward to watching this season play out, again it feels like we have so many unknowns and toys to play with, watching Barnes try and figure the best way to assemble pieces has been fun, here’s to hoping he finds the right combo.
