A Fair Benchmark for Butch: 6-2 in SEC or: Why the Negas have a Point

[Tin Man]

So we should keep a coach who has a proven record of mediocrity in the SEC, for in the hopes that he will somehow overachieve, even though he just had a season with the most talented team in his career, and still couldn't achieve more than .500 in conference play?

Man, that's a stretch even for a white knight.

Your reading comprehension needs tuning.

Read the following carefully... CBJ is under contract through 2020. Buyout of his contract is neither affordable nor merited nor remotely likely. The current AD, Hart hired him and extended his contract through 2020. He's not going to fire Butch, nor is he going to hire a replacement. Hart is retiring. So, Butch will be coaching team 121. It's likely he'll be coaching team 122 as well. While he is the HC, I choose to hope for improvement (note the difference between hopes & desires and expectations cited in my earlier post).

If my fandom remained intact throughout the fiasco of Hamilton's tenure as Director of Men's Athletics, it will damn well survive present circumstances. I've lived a passel of decades and am suitably tempered. I don't pour piss on my cornflakes in the morning, and I don't vent my spleen spewing vitriol on VN about CBJ's failure to build Tennessee's football program to perennial contender for championships during the past 4 years.

Team 120 is in the books. 'Tis not the time for pragmatism nor pessimism, but the time for unfettered hopes. There's a long stretch 'til Sept 4. Be buoyed by hope. You'll sleep better at night, greet each day with a more positive outlook, and be healthier for it.

When your spirits waiver, recite the following - May team 121 overcome every flaw, fault, and fragility (including those of the coaching staff), exceed probability, achieve what's thought impossible, and claim victories over every opponent, favored or otherwise.

You can check back in with reality on Sept. 4. You'll find yourself to be a stronger person for having indulged in a fantastical fan sabbatical. GBO.

 

[Tin Man]

So are you saying we should not expect improvement over the past average? If so, I disagree completely.

No. I properly interpreted the metrics cited by of the OP and enunciated the expectations one may derive from them.

 

[sjt18]

No one anywhere would have fired Fulmer in 2005.

Actually that's not true. Reliable rumors around that time is that some of the money interests were trying to make it happen.

I think you all really miss the mark if you think Florida, FSU, notre dame, usc, michigan, etc, would have fired him under thoae exact circumstances. No way

Maybe not... UF would have likely fired him if Spurrier had been UT's coach and kept embarrassing him both on and off the field.

 

[sjt18]

No. I properly interpreted the metrics cited by of the OP and enunciated the expectations one may derive from them.

So you are saying that one can only derive expectations that meet the "average" of the past?

 

[99gator]

Actually that's not true. Reliable rumors around that time is that some of the money interests were trying to make it happen.


Maybe not... UF would have likely fired him if Spurrier had been UT's coach and kept embarrassing him both on and off the field.

If the roles are exactly reversed.....

Philip Fulmer is the greatest coach in the history of the University of Florida having (in the year 2005) won the school's only two conference titles and the school's only national title and undefeated season. At that time, he would have had 8 ten win seasons. The only seasons of that kind in the history of the school.

If he was a Florida alumnus and all of the above would have been true......

There is no way in hell he would have been fired at Florida at the end of the 2005 season.

Absolutely none.

On a side note: what is a "reliable rumor"?

 

[photovol]

I question whether Butch Jones will ever go 6-2 in the SEC, after the 2016 season:crazy:

 

[Evet Vols]

Your reading comprehension needs tuning.

Read the following carefully... CBJ is under contract through 2020. Buyout of his contract is neither affordable nor merited nor remotely likely. The current AD, Hart hired him and extended his contract through 2020. He's not going to fire Butch, nor is he going to hire a replacement. Hart is retiring. So, Butch will be coaching team 121. It's likely he'll be coaching team 122 as well. While he is the HC, I choose to hope for improvement (note the difference between hopes & desires and expectations cited in my earlier post).

If my fandom remained intact throughout the fiasco of Hamilton's tenure as Director of Men's Athletics, it will damn well survive present circumstances. I've lived a passel of decades and am suitably tempered. I don't pour piss on my cornflakes in the morning, and I don't vent my spleen spewing vitriol on VN about CBJ's failure to build Tennessee's football program to perennial contender for championships during the past 4 years.

Team 120 is in the books. 'Tis not the time for pragmatism nor pessimism, but the time for unfettered hopes. There's a long stretch 'til Sept 4. Be buoyed by hope. You'll sleep better at night, greet each day with a more positive outlook, and be healthier for it.

When your spirits waiver, recite the following - May team 121 overcome every flaw, fault, and fragility (including those of the coaching staff), exceed probability, achieve what's thought impossible, and claim victories over every opponent, favored or otherwise.

You can check back in with reality on Sept. 4. You'll find yourself to be a stronger person for having indulged in a fantastical fan sabbatical. GBO.

Cliffnote = Butch Jones isn't going anywhere so stop badmouthing the team and support them.

 

[xpsyclonex2002]

Fact is that the only reality the UT Admin will consider is simple...

1...Is the footVol Team earning enough $$$ as total profit?

2...Is that total $$$$ profit likely to continue with buTch ball?

3...Is the HUGE buyout $$$ low enough yet to even think about replacing buTch?

4...Are the BIG $$$ donors pissed off enough yet to pay the buyout $$$?

5...Is there really a viable coach that's also a good recruiter that UT can hire at a small enough starting $$$$ on his 1st contract that we're certain we can get to come to Tennessee?

It's 100% totally ALL about the $$$ and profit margin!!!

The UT Admin does NOT care about building a Elite, top Winning footVol program at all.

The ONLY thing the UT Admin really cares about is trying to turn UT into a Southern version of Harvard, Yale and Princeton and that's NEVER going to happen no matter how many Liberals take over the Admin and Board of Trustees.

We are Tennessee, home of Hillbillies and Rednecks and we'll never abandon our Proud Southern roots and that starts right at the family level.

Admin and the BoT needs to learn that we Vols fans want and should be demanding excellence and Elite winning Teams in all UT sports!

I'm sick and tired of the UT Admin screwing up our sports programs consistently!

It needs to end NOW!!!

VFL...GBO!!!

#5 is the biggest issue. We have a coach that stopped the collapse of the program, recruits top 10 classes, and has taken us to 3 bowl games and won them all convincingly. Has he taken us to the next level? No. He has plateaued. Can he take us to the next level? Magic 8 ball can't answer. But who in the coaching world is a guaranteed home run hitter to get us an SEC Championship and NC? That appears to be the gripe from a lot of VN about Alabama and Saban. According to some on VN, The AD at Alabama said he was hiring a guaranteed home run hitter so he hunted down Saban. They had the insight to know when they hired him that he was good for at least 8-10 NC's. So if Tennessee ponies up $100 million and hires the next football Jesus, who is that guy? I don't see him out there. Dabo? Nope. Fisher? Nope. Meyer? Nope. Kelly? Nope.

 

[jakez4ut]

AIS( as--s in seats) is the only stat that matters to the powers that be in Knoxville.

Sure, DiPietro did that idiotic dancing video a few years ago when they made the bowl, but I think that was due to knowing it would get the masses motivated again to buy tickets and get them back into the top 5 or so in attendance. They had slipped to around 8th or 9th under Dooley.

If anyone really cared what was going on with the UTAD, Hart would have probably been fired at the onset of that Title IX investigation and the Tyndall debacle.

At the least, someone should have taken the reigns of this new AD hire MONTHS ago.

UTAD continues to be a rudderless ship though.

agreed. the fact they let hart basically have a year to retire tells you a lot.

anyway, despite all my bit**ng and moaning about Butch, the reality is the thing that's holding UT back is....UT.

 

[jakez4ut]

No one anywhere would have fired Fulmer in 2005.

Hindsight is great. But at the time, he had the highest winning percentage or close in college football. They just won 10 or so games in 2004 and went to Atlanta. He averaged 10 wins or close to that a year.

No one would have fired a coach with one bad season. Particularly one with a national title and an alumnus.

He was 128-37 at the end of 2005.

I think you all really miss the mark if you think Florida, FSU, notre dame, usc, michigan, etc, would have fired him under thoae exact circumstances. No way

eh, you're just fortunate you never got that point with Spurrier and didn't have to fire a favorite son at some point. but it would have happened eventually.

same with Meyer. FL has been able to avoid the awkwardness of having to make that kind of decision on someone that was that successful.

so you have no frame of reference Donnie.

 

[ETV]

No one anywhere would have fired Fulmer in 2005.

Hindsight is great. But at the time, he had the highest winning percentage or close in college football. They just won 10 or so games in 2004 and went to Atlanta. He averaged 10 wins or close to that a year.

No one would have fired a coach with one bad season. Particularly one with a national title and an alumnus.

He was 128-37 at the end of 2005.

I think you all really miss the mark if you think Florida, FSU, notre dame, usc, michigan, etc, would have fired him under thoae exact circumstances. No way

It's possible the entire body of his work was analyzed, but keep in mind that the writing was on the wall with the continued downward trend that had started in 2002. In that year, UT managed 8 wins, but failed to obtain one of those wins against any of their conference rivals, including the 20 point losses to Alabama and Florida.

2003 showed improvement early on, then reality set in losing on the road to an average Auburn team and being blasted at home by 35 to Georgia. Oh, the 5 OT game was a great win, against an eventual 4-9 Alabama team. Fulmer's signature win of the year was on the road against Miami then closed out the season with the uninspired loss to Clemson in the Peach Bowl.

 

[alaVOL]

I think it's all based on schedule.

I'm in the same boat as a member of the SEC East.

Everyone has 3 cupcakes and 1 legit squad OOC.

In conference.....We all have Vandy, SC, Missouri, and Kentucky.

No head coach at Florida, Georgia, or Tennessee is being paid to beat Missouri, Kentucky, SC, Vanderbilt or the three cupcakes. We all feel arrogantly enough about our programs that barring the occasional (and by that I mean extremely rare) loss to one of those squads.......the schedule gives you 7 wins before the season even starts.

The other games are the legit OOC team, Georgia, Florida/Tennessee, Permanent west opponent and rotating west opponent. These are the games where the coach earns their money and gets fired or gets a contract extension.

And even then.....the rotating west team may not be that good or that good that particular year. Georgia, Florida and Tennessee have not been world beaters recently. Some of those games are also home games.

Basically in a year where you go 3-2....you have a 10-2 season before the bowl. If you go 2-3, you have a 9-3 season before the bowl.

Now, I have the last couple of seasons as proof. Florida won 10 games in 2015 and won 9 games in 2016 (with a cupcake game cancelled) and no one would argue that they are all that good.

So, no, I don't think fans are being ridiculous.

Nicely done.

 

[GetEmVols]

So if with this research you had found out that there was nothing to complain about - would you have shared it?

No, but I'm sure you would have.

 

[BigZiti09]

Taking out the give me wins such as your Western Carolinas and Tennessee Techs, this would be Jones' records while at UT

2013- 2-7
2014- 4-6
2015- 6-4
2016- 6-4

Overall- 18-21 (.461 winning %)

If you did this for Urban Meyer he would be like 5-5 in his career at OSU.

 

[99gator]

eh, you're just fortunate you never got that point with Spurrier and didn't have to fire a favorite son at some point. but it would have happened eventually.

same with Meyer. FL has been able to avoid the awkwardness of having to make that kind of decision on someone that was that successful.

so you have no frame of reference Donnie.

Sure it would have happened eventually.

All I am saying is if you think that not firing Fulmer at the end of 2005 is evidence that Tennessee "settles for mediocrity", that is false.

As such, I pointed out why he would not have been....including at the places that supposedly don't settle for mediocrity. I gave reasons why.

I know sjt18's point of view is that I always condescend to Tennessee and that Fulmer is ok for Tennessee and not ok for Florida because Florida is better. I nuked that garbage by pointing out he would have been the best coach in the history of the school and if you think fans would have fired the best coach in the history of the school (who is also an alumnus) because of one bad season, you are sadly mistaken.

The irony in all of this is that Fulmer was fired because he wasn't as good as Fulmer anymore. He didn't match his own standard. Who knows if people would have held him to that high a standard if he didn't set that kind of standard in the first place.

All fan bases have changed. In the context of Florida football history, the last two seasons have been very good. But, they aren't Urban or Spurrier good and so it better get better or in a couple of years, Mac will be gone.

Half the league thinks they should be national championship good and winning 3+ SEC titles a decade.

Even some of the Arkansas faithful see no reason why they can't have the same level of success they did in the SWC. They just haven't gotten it right yet.

We all have unrealistic expectations. Pity the fool who follows Saban at Alabama

 

[jakez4ut]

Sure it would have happened eventually.

All I am saying is if you think that not firing Fulmer at the end of 2005 is evidence that Tennessee "settles for mediocrity", that is false.

As such, I pointed out why he would not have been....including at the places that supposedly don't settle for mediocrity. I gave reasons why.

I know sjt18's point of view is that I always condescend to Tennessee and that Fulmer is ok for Tennessee and not ok for Florida because Florida is better. I nuked that garbage by pointing out he would have been the best coach in the history of the school and if you think fans would have fired the best coach in the history of the school (who is also an alumnus) because of one bad season, you are sadly mistaken.

The irony in all of this is that Fulmer was fired because he wasn't as good as Fulmer anymore. He didn't match his own standard. Who knows if people would have held him to that high a standard if he didn't set that kind of standard in the first place.

All fan bases have changed. In the context of Florida football history, the last two seasons have been very good. But, they aren't Urban or Spurrier good and so it better get better or in a couple of years, Mac will be gone.

Half the league thinks they should be national championship good and winning 3+ SEC titles a decade.

Even some of the Arkansas faithful see no reason why they can't have the same level of success they did in the SWC. They just haven't gotten it right yet.

We all have unrealistic expectations. Pity the fool who follows Saban at Alabama

perspective is a funny thing. as Tennessee fans, and as closely as we all pay attention to things all things TN, as you look at what Fulmer wasn't able to do once Spurrier was gone, with GA transitioning after hiring Richt, if Spurrier was the road block to taking control of the East, which he was for the vast majority of the 90's, what are you supposed to think when he immediately loses to Ron Zook? Richt? Saban?

then throw in losing seasons at the end, losing streaks again to FL, Bama, and GA....it's fair to say the run was over. that he didn't go out quietly, made a bad hire at OC, twice, and it just ended badly.

but again, as a FL fan, i wouldn't expect you to have a frame of reference in this regard. things just worked out for you guys, and you haven't had to go thru something like that....give spurrier credit, he saved you guys from ever having to go thru it.

 

[jakez4ut]

and in the current landscape, when talking about the SEC e, i think it's perfectly fair to believe that most of the time, over a long enough time line, that TN, FL, and GA should be the programs competing for the East the most regularly.

in the West, it's a different animal b/c of what Bama has become, so while i think if you're LSU, Auburn, aTm, Ark etc....you don't necessarily "expect" to win the West on the same kind of regularity as GA, FL, or TN in the East. there's a vacuum in the East. there's not in the West.

 

[revjayp]

Any objective person has to say "no" at this point, as much as they want to say "yes" as a fan. He has done or shown nothing in 4 years that indicates he has that in him. Butch had 10 regular season wins sitting on a platter this year and found a way to screw it up, with not just one but two losses to inferior division opponents that only made it to .500 in the regular season because they beat us.

I'd love to be proven wrong next year, but he's going to have to do it with a team inferior to this year's (on paper) and against a division/conference that is almost certainly going to be better. I have my doubts.

I know there is a tendency some have to go easy on him because he has successfully pulled the car out of the big ditch Kiffin/Dooley drove it into and has it running pretty good again, but there is no factual way to spin this season as anything other than a disappointing underachievement.

Here's what I don't understand. Why is it not allowed on here to be grateful for him getting us our of the Kiffin/Dooley dung pile and at the same time realize he's not capable of taking us to the next level? I'm thrilled we're relevant again, hosting Gameday, having elite players but at the same time, I realize that Jones and company aren't capable of taking the next step. And it's not even his on the field mistakes so much as it is his unwillingness to admit fault, make necessary hires and relinquish control for the greater good of the team. He's all about Butch. I'm grateful but not satisfied.

 

[Tin Man]

So you are saying that one can only derive expectations that meet the "average" of the past?

Reading comprehension: As I plainly stated, I derived the "expectations" from the metrics presented in the OP's post. I've neither endorsed or renounced the OP.

 

[Rifleman]

So you are saying that one can only derive expectations that meet the "average" of the past?

Well, to even hit the average win percentage for the coaches mentioned in the original post, Butch would need to average 6-2 every season for the next 10 years.

Even to catch Johnny Majors, 58.5% in conference, he would need to do that for the next 4 years. It did take Johnny 8 years to win an SEC championship, but he won 3.

Does Butch have the same leeway here as Johnny Majors? I think that question answers itself.

 

[govols120]

All teams have "give me" wins. The "give me" wins inflate the win / loss percentage.

And the 6-2 mark is even suspect. So if a coach has the following SEC marks he is meeting the average - but I can guarantee you all would be saying FIRE the coach with the 0-8 record.

8-0
8-0
8-0
6-2
0-8

If a coach at Tennessee went 8-0 in the SEC three times in five years, he'd be given a lifetime contract. That means you're in the playoff 60% of the time. What a dumb argument.

 

[QuickSmurf]

Had we played State and won would we have gone to Atl?

No but that wasn't my point. I think Alabama is the most dominant team in history. We play them every year. That's all I was saying.

 

[MFL]

CBJ has staked a claim to average Joe. Expect more of the same. This OC hire is a chance to pass average but his past hires suggest another average Joe. It's sad there is no AD to monitor the hire.

 

[QuickSmurf]

Sure it would have happened eventually.

All I am saying is if you think that not firing Fulmer at the end of 2005 is evidence that Tennessee "settles for mediocrity", that is false.

As such, I pointed out why he would not have been....including at the places that supposedly don't settle for mediocrity. I gave reasons why.

I know sjt18's point of view is that I always condescend to Tennessee and that Fulmer is ok for Tennessee and not ok for Florida because Florida is better. I nuked that garbage by pointing out he would have been the best coach in the history of the school and if you think fans would have fired the best coach in the history of the school (who is also an alumnus) because of one bad season, you are sadly mistaken.

The irony in all of this is that Fulmer was fired because he wasn't as good as Fulmer anymore. He didn't match his own standard. Who knows if people would have held him to that high a standard if he didn't set that kind of standard in the first place.

All fan bases have changed. In the context of Florida football history, the last two seasons have been very good. But, they aren't Urban or Spurrier good and so it better get better or in a couple of years, Mac will be gone.

Half the league thinks they should be national championship good and winning 3+ SEC titles a decade.

Even some of the Arkansas faithful see no reason why they can't have the same level of success they did in the SWC. They just haven't gotten it right yet.

We all have unrealistic expectations. Pity the fool who follows Saban at Alabama

You make many good points. The culture of college football has changed and is changing more. It will be interesting to see how it effects recruits and coaches. Right now coaches are having huge buyouts and I think it correlates with not only the high expectations but also with the amount of time they are given to rebuild.

 

[99gator]

perspective is a funny thing. as Tennessee fans, and as closely as we all pay attention to things all things TN, as you look at what Fulmer wasn't able to do once Spurrier was gone, with GA transitioning after hiring Richt, if Spurrier was the road block to taking control of the East, which he was for the vast majority of the 90's, what are you supposed to think when he immediately loses to Ron Zook? Richt? Saban?

then throw in losing seasons at the end, losing streaks again to FL, Bama, and GA....it's fair to say the run was over. that he didn't go out quietly, made a bad hire at OC, twice, and it just ended badly.

but again, as a FL fan, i wouldn't expect you to have a frame of reference in this regard. things just worked out for you guys, and you haven't had to go thru something like that....give spurrier credit, he saved you guys from ever having to go thru it.

Firing fulmer in 2008 and firing him in 2005 are totally different things.