A Fair Assessment of Dooley

#1
preacherwebb

preacherwebb

KJV1611
Joined
Jan 25, 2010
Messages
4,745
Likes
9,613
#1
Okay, enough is enough.
Let's stop bashing Dooley for a moment. Let's stop defending him for a moment as well. Let's let simple facts speak for themselves.

I was curious, so I did a little research, and here's what I found.

I went to cfbdatawarehouse.com (neat little website by the way) and compiled some data.

I wanted to see Coach Dooleys record while at La Tech, minus the obvious games where his team was clearly overmatched, you know, games where La Tech was scheduled for homecoming beatdowns and big checks.

The reason I wanted to see this was to see if he could win if "all things were equal" or at least close to equal player wise. How does he stack up against comparable competition with comparable players? Forget about our current UT roster vs #1, #2, #3 ranked teams ... comparably talented players.

Here is what I found:

9/1/07 W vs Central Ark
9/8/07 L vs Hawaii
9/15/07 did not count vs Cal
9/29/07 L @ Fresno St
10/6/07 did not count Mrs. Sippi
10/13/07 W vs New Mexico St
10/20/07 did not even count this L vs Boise St
10/27/07 W @ Utah St
11/3/07 W @ Idaho
11/10/07 did not count LSU
11/17/07 W vs San Jose St
12/1/07 L @ Nevada
(2007 5-7 overall, 5-3 record vs comparable competition)

8/30/08 didn't count it, but a W against Mrs. Sippi St
9/6/08 didn't count Kansas
9/20/08 W vs SE Louisiana
10/1/08 didn't count Boise St again
10/11/08 L @ Hawaii
10/18/08 W vs Idaho
10/25/08 L @ Army
11/1/08 W vs Fresno St
11/8/08 W @ San Jose St
11/15/08 W Utah St
11/22/08 W @ New Mexico St
11/29/08 L vs Nevada
12/28/08 Independence Bowl W vs Northern Ill
(2008 8-5 overall, 7-3 record vs comparable competition)

9/5/09 did not count Auburn
9/12/09 L @ Navy
9/19/09 W vs Nicholls St
9/30/09 W vs Hawaii
10/9/09 L @ Nevada
10/17/09 W vs New Mexico St
10/24/09 L @ Utah St
10/31/09 L @ Idaho
11/6/09 did not count close L vs Boise
11/14/09 did not count LSU
11/21/09 L @ Fresno St
12/5/09 W vs San Jose St
(2009 4-8 overall, 4-5 record vs comparable competition)

So, that makes his record at La Tech 17-20 overall (which we knew all too well), 16-11 record vs comparable competition.

Percentage wise, this says that Dooley wins 64% of the time against comparable competition.

I honestly believe this is a fair assessment, leaving all bias out of the conversation.

So, what (if anything) can we glean from this? IF, IF, Dooley can recruit SEC caliber players to UT, he will win 64% of his SEC games (that's 5 of 8), plus 4 ooc patsies, and average 9 wins per season.

But 3 SEC losses will practically always keep you out of the SEC Championship Game.

Thoughts?
 
#3
#3
Assuming those results bore out the way you predict, it's not nearly good enough. The uspide needs to be a return to decade of dominance level performance.
 
#4
#4
If he recruits like he has then once he has the pipeline rolling i would hesitate to call vandy or uk comparable - also 3 of the ooc games typically aren't comparable

so if we win 64% of the rest once you account for those 5 wins that would be 9.48 wins a year
 
#5
#5
Thoughts? On the Monday after that last game of his second season.... with a contract that says he gets $5 million if he's fired... what you posted was a complete and total waste of time.

He gets next year and probably the next to prove he can win in the SEC. If he can... he stays. If he can't... he's replaced. You might as well start dealing with that reality... or find someone who has $5 million laying around to throw away.
 
#6
#6
1. SEC is hard to win in. SIX straight national championships.
2. No help from upper JRs and SRs.
3. Injuries to key players on a thin roster.
4. Tennessee was predicted to be 6-6 before the season started.

After cooling off, Tennessee really is not a good team at the present time.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#7
#7
This isn't going to get it done at UT, unless we resign ourselves to being a mid-pack SEC team. If we want championships, we need to reach higher. The goal at UT has always been to win championships.

And yes, three SEC losses will field no championships, so statistically, based on this info, we are trying to ride a donkey in the Derby and expecting him to win.
 
#8
#8
Honest answer, winning the games that your suppose to win makes you average. Winning the games that you aren't suppose to win, makes you great. We don't have a great coach as of right now. Maybe he gets better who knows
 
#9
#9
i think he deserves another year. Anything less than 8 reg season wins is unacceptable though. If he goes 7-6 next year even with a bowl win he's gotta go. Youth and inexperience can't be used as an excuse next year.
 
#10
#10
SCvol333 said:
If he recruits like he has then once he has the pipeline rolling i would hesitate to call vandy or uk comparable - also 3 of the ooc games typically aren't comparable

so if we win 64% of the rest once you account for those 5 wins that would be 9.48 wins a year
Click to expand...

Vandy or UK might not ought to be comparable, but you did watch the games the last 2 weeks didn't you?

9.48 wins, that's pretty much what I said.

sjt18 said:
Thoughts? On the Monday after that last game of his second season.... with a contract that says he gets $5 million if he's fired... what you posted was a complete and total waste of time.

He gets next year and probably the next to prove he can win in the SEC. If he can... he stays. If he can't... he's replaced. You might as well start dealing with that reality... or find someone who has $5 million laying around to throw away.
Click to expand...

Why is it a waste of time? Ranting and raving about firing a coach with a contract that says he gets $5 mill if he's fired might be a waste of time. Clearly, that's not what this thread is about. What this thread is about is, will people be happy with this type of performance, if Dooley is this type of coach?

Just so you know, I'd like Pete Carroll to come to UT, but I digress.
 
#11
#11
VOLS INC. said:
i think he deserves another year. Anything less than 8 reg season wins is unacceptable though. If he goes 7-6 next year even with a bowl win he's gotta go. Youth and inexperience can't be used as an excuse next year.
Click to expand...

Agreed, CDD needs to beat one of the following. Florida, Alabama, Georgia for any good to come out of the 2012 season.
 
#12
#12
I like Dooley. I really do. But the guy has got to get a handle on this program or I don't care who he recruits or hires, we're not going to be contenders on the big stage.
IMO he was brought in because he was squeaky clean at a time when we needed that. Whether he stays long term and has success is anybody's guess. He runs a clean program and if given time, may get us back to where we want to be.
He also may run us into the ground.
He could be a diamond in the rough and just needs some time or he could be Buzz Peterson.
 
#13
#13
knoxville's finest said:
1. SEC is hard to win in. SIX straight national championships.
2. No help from upper JRs and SRs.
3. Injuries to key players on a thin roster.
4. Tennessee was predicted to be 6-6 before the season started.

After cooling off, Tennessee really is not a good team at the present time.
Click to expand...

XhCUb.gif
 
#14
#14
if you get off on mediocrity, dooley's your man. he could coach a century in the sec and never make it to atlanta. i've yet to hear the name of any other program (big time or else) which had him on their short list.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 3 people
#15
#15
knoxville's finest said:
1. SEC is hard to win in. SIX straight national championships.
2. No help from upper JRs and SRs.
3. Injuries to key players on a thin roster.
4. Tennessee was predicted to be 6-6 before the season started.

After cooling off, Tennessee really is not a good team at the present time.
Click to expand...


do you do excuses for a living?. you ought to; you're good at it.
 
#17
#17
preacherwebb said:
Vandy or UK might not ought to be comparable, but you did watch the games the last 2 weeks didn't you?

9.48 wins, that's pretty much what I said.
Click to expand...

I didn't write that to disagree with you - just wanted to break it out a bit more - the last 2 games were very rough but if you look over the last 20-30 years it would be hard to argue that they year in year out have comparable talent to UT, GA, FL, AU, AL or LSU
 
#18
#18
preacherwebb said:
Okay, enough is enough.
Let's stop bashing Dooley for a moment. Let's stop defending him for a moment as well. Let's let simple facts speak for themselves.

I was curious, so I did a little research, and here's what I found.

I went to cfbdatawarehouse.com (neat little website by the way) and compiled some data.

I wanted to see Coach Dooleys record while at La Tech, minus the obvious games where his team was clearly overmatched, you know, games where La Tech was scheduled for homecoming beatdowns and big checks.

The reason I wanted to see this was to see if he could win if "all things were equal" or at least close to equal player wise. How does he stack up against comparable competition with comparable players? Forget about our current UT roster vs #1, #2, #3 ranked teams ... comparably talented players.

Here is what I found:

9/1/07 W vs Central Ark
9/8/07 L vs Hawaii
9/15/07 did not count vs Cal
9/29/07 L @ Fresno St
10/6/07 did not count Mrs. Sippi
10/13/07 W vs New Mexico St
10/20/07 did not even count this L vs Boise St
10/27/07 W @ Utah St
11/3/07 W @ Idaho
11/10/07 did not count LSU
11/17/07 W vs San Jose St
12/1/07 L @ Nevada
(2007 5-7 overall, 5-3 record vs comparable competition)

8/30/08 didn't count it, but a W against Mrs. Sippi St
9/6/08 didn't count Kansas
9/20/08 W vs SE Louisiana
10/1/08 didn't count Boise St again
10/11/08 L @ Hawaii
10/18/08 W vs Idaho
10/25/08 L @ Army
11/1/08 W vs Fresno St
11/8/08 W @ San Jose St
11/15/08 W Utah St
11/22/08 W @ New Mexico St
11/29/08 L vs Nevada
12/28/08 Independence Bowl W vs Northern Ill
(2008 8-5 overall, 7-3 record vs comparable competition)

9/5/09 did not count Auburn
9/12/09 L @ Navy
9/19/09 W vs Nicholls St
9/30/09 W vs Hawaii
10/9/09 L @ Nevada
10/17/09 W vs New Mexico St
10/24/09 L @ Utah St
10/31/09 L @ Idaho
11/6/09 did not count close L vs Boise
11/14/09 did not count LSU
11/21/09 L @ Fresno St
12/5/09 W vs San Jose St
(2009 4-8 overall, 4-5 record vs comparable competition)

So, that makes his record at La Tech 17-20 overall (which we knew all too well), 16-11 record vs comparable competition.

Percentage wise, this says that Dooley wins 64% of the time against comparable competition.

I honestly believe this is a fair assessment, leaving all bias out of the conversation.

So, what (if anything) can we glean from this? IF, IF, Dooley can recruit SEC caliber players to UT, he will win 64% of his SEC games (that's 5 of 8), plus 4 ooc patsies, and average 9 wins per season.

But 3 SEC losses will practically always keep you out of the SEC Championship Game.

Thoughts?
Click to expand...

What you are not considering is the rash of defensive starters lost for the season for Dooley in his final year. They had 5 or 6 starters lost to year ending injuries, and they would have had a 9 or 10 win season without the injuries. Just go back and look at what their fans had to say about Dooley! They didn't want him to leave as he had done more for the program than anyone and it was headed up.
 
#19
#19
Flathead said:
What you are not considering is the rash of defensive starters lost for the season for Dooley in his final year. They had 5 or 6 starters lost to year ending injuries, and they would have had a 9 or 10 win season without the injuries. Just go back and look at what their fans had to say about Dooley! They didn't want him to leave as he had done more for the program than anyone and it was headed up.
Click to expand...


Nobody had ever done anything for La Tech.

The problem I see from the research I did was it shows me a pattern developing, because he's not done much better at UT than La Tech.

Look, if he stays (and apparently he will at least one more year), I'm Vol enough to hope he wins the SEC, is undefeated, and wins the NC.
I'm also Vol enough to want somebody in here that can do the job if he can't.

not arguing, just sayin ... :good!:
 
#21
#21
pl3 said:
I thought there would be no math
Click to expand...


Dude, I did the math! :)

I worked really hard on this thread; thought some valid points were made, other than the bashing/defending that's going on the board right now.

I actually love all this.
Hate the loosing, love the drama.

It's better than The YOUNG and the Restless.
Doh! Can't get away from our team being young!

(Sarcasm)
 
#22
#22
preacherwebb said:
Dude, I did the math! :)

I worked really hard on this thread; thought some valid points were made, other than the bashing/defending that's going on the board right now.

I actually love all this.
Hate the loosing, love the drama.

It's better than The YOUNG and the Restless.
Doh! Can't get away from our team being young!

(Sarcasm)
Click to expand...

I'll give you props. You obviously took a while with it. It's all nice and uniform. :)
 
#23
#23
Did you ever consider taking into account; staffs, facilities, fans, home field. Too many varibles but on paper it always looks good but there are too many varibles to just let this stand alone. NCAA investigations, Asst coaches make all the difference in the world. So this analysis is good for paper and some argument but there are a lot of holes to be covered. It boils down to ability and staff to foresee. There have been HS coaches that stepped into the SEC as assistants and they have been successful.
 
#24
#24
Sudden Impact said:
Did you ever consider taking into account; staffs, facilities, fans, home field. Too many varibles but on paper it always looks good but there are too many varibles to just let this stand alone. NCAA investigations, Asst coaches make all the difference in the world. So this analysis is good for paper and some argument but there are a lot of holes to be covered. It boils down to ability and staff to foresee. There have been HS coaches that stepped into the SEC as assistants and they have been successful.
Click to expand...


Point well made. Can't disagree.

Was just trying to get a sort of "baseline" to get a feel for our HC's ability when the playing field was a little bit more level, instead of him having to coach uphill like he did in October this season.
 
#25
#25
so your assessment just affirmed what every Dooley basher has been saying since the beginning. if you hire a lower D1 level coach, you get lower D1 level coaching, lower D1 level recruiting, and lower D1 level performance. if we ever want to be pleased in January with the way our football team played, we need to hire a proven, high quality D1 coach. I like Dooley but let's face it guys, this is only the beginning of our disappointment.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement



Back
Top