5* recruiting (debunked)

#1
1vol8

1vol8

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#1
The thread was posted a few days ago suggesting we don't have a chance without 5* recruits. So I took to google to find out how right he could be and decided, instead of debating a percentage of what I learned based on a comment here and there, why not put it all on here? So here we go.

Let's see how we would feel about this hypothetical roster at UT back in the day.

Qb1 Arron Rodgers
Qb2 Matt Ryan
Rb1 Levion Bell
Wr. Mike Evans
OL Travis Frederick
OL. Trent Williams
TE. Travis Kelsey

C. Richard Sherman
DL Von Miller
DL Arron Donald
DL Cliff Avril
All 3* recruits and that's just the probowl.

According to 247 we shouldnt be talking about 2* talent such as Aquib Talib or Kalil Mack because they are less likely to go pro.

Even less talk is deserved for the bottom feeders (unranked) such as Tony Romo and Tom Brady.

Ive never been a believer in the recruiting services for reasons unimportant (although one reason should already be clear). But if you choose to believe a panel full of guys that went to school to learn how to do this from a book, be my guest. I'll trust my own eyes and experience along with the coaching staff that trust the same things over what some pencil pusher says they are.
 
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#2
#2
1vol8 said:
The thread was posted a few days ago suggesting we don't have a chance without 5* recruits. So I took to google to find out how right he could be and decided, instead of debating a percentage of what I learned based on a comment here and there, why not put it all on here? So here we go.

Let's see how we would feel about this hypothetical roster at UT back in the day.

Qb1 Arron Rodgers
Qb2 Matt Ryan
Rb1 Levion Bell
Wr. Mike Evans
OL Travis Frederick
OL. Trent Williams
TE. Travis Kelsey

C. Richard Sherman
DL Von Miller
DL Arron Donald
DL Cliff Avril
All 3* recruits and that's just the probowl.

According to 247 we shouldnt be talking about 2* talent such as Aquib Talib or Kalil Mack because they are less likely to go pro.

Even less talk is deserved for the bottom feeders (unranked) such as Tony Romo and Tom Brady.

Ive never been a believer in the recruiting services for reasons unimportant (although one reason should already be clear). But if you choose to believe a panel full of guys that went to school to learn how to do this from a book, be my guest. I'll trust my own eyes and experience along with the coaching staff that trust the same things over what some pencil pusher says they are.
Click to expand...

You done messed up A-Aron
 
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#6
#6
Yes yes we all know that many 3* guys make the NFL year after year. Some even become stars.

i don’t get caught up in rankings because TN has gotten their fair share of 4-5* players over the years who rarely or barely pan out. Been burned too many times for me to get excited anymore. Especially over 5* guys.

But if you want to compete for SEC and National Titles the class as a whole better be inside the top 10 four out of five years. Consecutive classes is the lower teens and you will fall behind quick.
 
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#8
#8
burntorangeVOLffle said:
Yes yes we all know that many 3* guys make the NFL year after year. Some even become stars.

i don’t get caught up in rankings because TN has gotten their fair share of 4-5* players over the years who rarely or barely pan out. Been burned too many times for me to get excited anymore. Especially over 5* guys.

But if you want to compete for SEC and National Titles the class as a whole better be inside the top 10 four out of five years. Consecutive classes is the lower teens and you will fall behind quick.
Click to expand...

I always loved the classic “So many more 3* players get drafted than 5* players”

Do people not realize the ratio of how many players are rated 3* vs how many are rated 5*?
 
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#10
#10
chatt-townVOL said:
I always loved the classic “So many more 3* players get drafted than 5* players”

Do people not realize the ratio of how many players are rated 3* vs how many are rated 5*?
Click to expand...
The star rating is how the recruiting services measure the likelihood of a player going pro. That being said if they were even 50% accurate there would be many more 4-5* players active in the NFL vs 3*s given the ratio of around 1 in 100,000 making to the league to begin with.
 
#12
#12
To your larger point, it is simply wrong. Just look at the blue chip ratio. ALL 4 playoff teams were 50%+ blue chip recruits this season. Bama has dominated CFB while recruiting #1 and a couple #2 classes.

This point isn't even debatable. It is beyond settled. If you are behind on this, catch up.
 
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#13
#13
Devo182 said:
Err Brady was taken by Michigan, probably a high 4* by most estimates. Remember, he predated the modern recruiting landscape. The idea he was some unknown 2* is completely false.
Click to expand...
I just went off of what I read during researching it. I don't remember that far back to know if the recruiting services even existed yet.
 
#15
#15
Devo182 said:
To your larger point, it is simply wrong. Just look at the blue chip ratio. ALL 4 playoff teams were 50%+ blue chip recruits this season. Bama has dominated CFB while recruiting #1 and a couple #2 classes.

This point isn't even debatable. It is beyond settled. If you are behind on this, catch up.
Click to expand...
If you're quoting me I'm not behind at all. My argument is referring to NFL talent. Yours is referring to current college talent. You're right, we're just arguing different points.

Although for the sake of conversation I have my money on the roster I posted (as college players) over Alabama and Clemson 9 out of 10 times.
 
#16
#16
Devo182 said:
Err Brady was taken by Michigan, probably a high 4* by most estimates. Remember, he predated the modern recruiting landscape. The idea he was some unknown 2* is completely false.
Click to expand...
His dad had to send VHS tapes (remember them?) around to get an offer from bigger schools...and Michigan was the biggest school that offered. Modern star system would have rated him a 3 star at best.
 
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#17
#17
butchna said:
His dad had to send VHS tapes (remember them?) around to get an offer from bigger schools...and Michigan was the biggest school that offered. Modern star system would have rated him a 3 star at best.
Click to expand...

Articles I've read disagree...and he went to Michigan in their heyday. Could really care less about Brady, but here's the first article I clicked on.

"Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Brady came up in the pre-Scout era when high school-player recruiting was much different than it is now. However, he was a highly sought-after quarterback prospect, and where he was rated is consistent with what would be a four-star recruit in today’s rating system, per the Maize and Blue News. He narrowed his list down to Michigan, UCLA, USC, California and Illinois before deciding on the Wolverines."

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story...l-s-best-players-ranked-in-high-school-020316
 
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#18
#18
1vol8 said:
If you're quoting me I'm not behind at all. My argument is referring to NFL talent. Yours is referring to current college talent. You're right, we're just arguing different points.

Although for the sake of conversation I have my money on the roster I posted (as college players) over Alabama and Clemson 9 out of 10 times.
Click to expand...

College talent...NFL talent, you are wrong on both accounts. The numbers prove you wrong. 5*s have the best chance of making the NFL, followed by 4*s, followed by 3*s, etc.
 
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#19
#19
Devo182 said:
Articles I've read disagree...and he went to Michigan in their heyday. Could really care less about Brady, but here's the first article I clicked on.

"Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Brady came up in the pre-Scout era when high school-player recruiting was much different than it is now. However, he was a highly sought-after quarterback prospect, and where he was rated is consistent with what would be a four-star recruit in today’s rating system, per the Maize and Blue News. He narrowed his list down to Michigan, UCLA, USC, California and Illinois before deciding on the Wolverines."

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story...l-s-best-players-ranked-in-high-school-020316
Click to expand...
Looks like I may have to take Brady off the list of the unranked. But there are conflicting reports as well that say just the opposite. Either way the one thing we all HAVE to agree on is he wasn't highly sought after coming out of college as (what would've been) a 4*.
 
#20
#20
VolForLife83 said:
  • 30 five-stars, or 0.01 percent of the class
  • 380 four-stars, or 0.13 percent of the class
  • 1,328 three-stars, or 0.44 percent of the class
  • 1,859 two-stars, or 0.62 percent of the class
  • 296,403 unrated, or 98.88 percent of the class
Click to expand...

This is informative.

Five stars are much more likely to turn into superstars than any other group here. But by sheer volume, there are a lot more excellent players categorized as something other than "five star." Of course, this is part of the reason why some coaches have been able to do well with 3-star recruits. Ultimately, though, what matters is that the coaching staff is excellent at evaluation and development.

A great coaching staff is recruiting the "blue chip" stars (4 and 5 stars), but also trying to find underrated prospects in that other 99.8%. And when you have numbers like that, it's easy to see how some extremely good players can slip through the cracks.
 
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#21
#21
Devo182 said:
College talent...NFL talent, you are wrong on both accounts. The numbers prove you wrong. 5*s have the best chance of making the NFL, followed by 4*s, followed by 3*s, etc.
Click to expand...
Im not agreeing or disagreeing at the moment because I really don't know that to be a fact, but I'll check it out. Right now I gotta go with what I DID see and that list makes up a good percentage of the best players in the league. And in Ar12s case arguably the best to ever play.
 
#22
#22
Devo182 said:
Articles I've read disagree...and he went to Michigan in their heyday. Could really care less about Brady, but here's the first article I clicked on.

"Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Brady came up in the pre-Scout era when high school-player recruiting was much different than it is now. However, he was a highly sought-after quarterback prospect, and where he was rated is consistent with what would be a four-star recruit in today’s rating system, per the Maize and Blue News. He narrowed his list down to Michigan, UCLA, USC, California and Illinois before deciding on the Wolverines."

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story...l-s-best-players-ranked-in-high-school-020316
Click to expand...
That doesn’t jibe with his dad sending highlight tapes to schools. Also John Robinson at USC passed on Brady for John Fox and Quincy Woods and UCLA passed in favor of Cade McNown. California and Illinois were California and Illinois...so I don’t put much stock in that speculative opinion of the FoxSports writer.
 
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#24
#24
Now if someone could just figure out how to know to pick those guys without hindsight. And look at where all those 3* that were drafted were taken verses the fact that most of the 1st and 2nd round picks are 4 and 5* guys. Big difference between drafted and drafted in 1st round.
 
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#25
#25
I just like good feetball players whether they's celestial wonders or Terran or grunts.
 
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