Right now, I view this as extremely pessimistic. On paper, we are better than that. Yes, I know I said, "On paper".
Things may play out as you said, but I am now firmly in the camp of believing that this addition was what the doctor ordered. At first, I was like, "So, we get another Vandy guy who got 8 points and 6 rebounds? Big deal!" but when you look at the big picture, he got those numbers in 20 minutes of play. Put that in terms of 30 minutes, and you get 12 and 9. You also get a big bodied guy who can hopefully play against the biggest, baddest guy the other team can throw at us. That is exactly what we needed the most.
Is he a 7 footer? No, but most 7 footers spend most of their time on the bench. This guy can give us big minutes, game after game.
Now, back to the season. Sure, we may be overestimating our talent level, and some deficiencies will certainly show up, but for the most part, I think we have all the pieces in place. No gaping holes, that we have almost always had. No team should be able to game plan against our deficiencies, and we should be able to either out-talent, out-hustle (fresh legs), or out-last (fouls to give) just about anyone out there.
If coach Barnes can put all this together, into a team, and not just a collection of players, this will be a team with one of the very best records we have ever had, and one with the best odds of winning, come tourney time. No reason to believe that the past is the best predictor of what we will get this year. This team is truly built different.