2021 schedule/predictions/expectations

#54
#54
Id be happy to hit 6 wins with the current shape were in. 7 if the breaks go our way. Maybe this offense catches fire and we surprise some folks. I'm more worried about our D. I'd say we win 5 to 7 games realistically.
 
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#55
#55
sjt18 said:
Name them... and then prove that they aren't as good or better than the "Kyle Morris" types on the rosters of UK, Mizzou, Pitt, USCe, and possibly even Ole Miss. I don't know if Heupel is the answer but am quite sure that Pruitt's decisions and philosophy/style of play suppressed what talent UT had. Particularly on O.

UT has holes. Some big holes. Some great big holes possibly at LB. UT may have to win games by scoring 50 points... but that's something that CJH's O at least has shown it can do against GOOD opponents.

Expecting them to have a "breakout" is too much. Six wins vs this schedule would not come close to a "breakout". Eight would be a very good performance. Six considering strength of schedule should be the minimum.

PS- I said this about the last two coaches as well. Both had rosters and schedules that should have yielded 6 wins. Jones needed a win over the worst UF team in a generation or Vandy... and couldn't do it. He was fired for not being a competent coach. Pruitt needed a win over a bad USCe team or a typical Vandy team to get to 6 and couldn't do it. He was fired for cause but would have been fired for performance. If a guy cannot win the games he "should" win then that isn't likely to improve with time.... or anything less than an infusion of elite talent... which doesn't come to coaches who fail to pick off some upsets beyond just beating those he should beat.

PSS- Heupel's O at Mizzou hung 50 on Jones.... with less talent than he's working with now.
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I’m using the logic of some are coaching, some aren’t and it’s a (at best) 50/50 deal. Keeping in mind some known commodities have already left via the portal.

IMO, Tennessee has a lot of holes. If half of those are guys who just needed the right coach and half are guys who the coach isn’t going to help, Tennessee will still have a lot of holes.

I’m also no longer a believer in the whole “star” thing. I don’t think there is a whole lot of difference in the talent level of Carolina, Mizzou, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, etc.

So, if you want to use 247 or rivals as a basis of proof for the fact that Tennessee is more talented, i don’t agree with the premise.

As I say all the time, at some point you are what your production says you are not your star rating out of high school. Is JG a 4 star or a terrible QB?

Same with the NFL draft. As some point, Peyton Manning stopped being the #1 overall pick and became one of the greatest players of all time. And Jamarcus Russell stopped being the #1 overall pick and became a terrible pro QB not worthy of a roster spot.
 
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#56
#56
I think we get the 4 cupcakes, and 2 of tier 2 (Pitt and USCe would be my guess). Kentucky should be better than us, Missouri I think will be second in the East, Ole Miss probably will outscore us. 6-6 is my guess, but I could see 5-7.
 
#58
#58
ptcarter said:
8 home games.. that's more than usual, isn't it?
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7 to 8 is normal, PT:

-- 4 of the 8 SEC games are home
-- 3 cupcakes are almost always in Knoxville
-- the one Power 5 OOC game can be either home or away
 
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#59
#59
99gator said:
I’m using the logic of some are coaching, some aren’t and it’s a (at best) 50/50 deal. Keeping in mind some known commodities have already left via the portal.

IMO, Tennessee has a lot of holes. If half of those are guys who just needed the right coach and half are guys who the coach isn’t going to help, Tennessee will still have a lot of holes.
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And you just described 9 of UT's 12 opponents. UT has some holes. They also have some talent to fill most of those holes with LB being a very likely exception.

I’m also no longer a believer in the whole “star” thing. I don’t think there is a whole lot of difference in the talent level of Carolina, Mizzou, Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, etc.

So, if you want to use 247 or rivals as a basis of proof for the fact that Tennessee is more talented, i don’t agree with the premise.
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Of course you don't. Awfully convenient though.

As I say all the time, at some point you are what your production says you are not your star rating out of high school. Is JG a 4 star or a terrible QB?
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One of many highly rated guys who failed to live up to the rating. As I've said for a very long time, the rating should not be given so much credence for any one particular player. Where they are most meaningful is "on average". A team with a roster that averages 3.8 stars is almost certain to have more talent than one that averages 3.2 stars.

Based on this you could say that you think the talent of those programs is close enough that you think UT will be outcoached. You could say but would need to prove that attrition has left the rosters in a different position. You will have a hard time arguing that the ratings have no ability to predict roster talent.

Your contention here would be that since JG was a bust... that means UT cannot possibly have a really good QB option out of Bailey 5*, Hooker 4*, Salter 4*, or Maurer 3* (and elite 11). The shear law of averages says that at least one of those guys is a good QB. UT has not had a coach that came close to utilizing the potential of its roster since Kiffin.... who isn't so great of a deal without Monte.
 
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#63
#63
sjt18 said:
Why? Pitt isn't a good offensive team. In the last 3 years they've scored 25 ppg, 21 ppg, and 26 ppg in the ACC. They are "known" as a defensive team. But they aren't that great on D either. They've allowed 29, 23, and 27 ppg over the last 3 years. They are a very, very, very middling to lower tier ACC team. They aren't incredibly talented.

It would probably be to their advantage to have more game film on the O before playing UT.
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Objectively, we aren't a good team either. We went 3-7 last year. We lost arguably our best player on offense (Eric Gray) and defense (Henry T) to the portal. We lost the best signee in our incoming freshman class ratings wise (Dylan Brooks). We lost at least a half dozen other players to the portal who transferred to P5 schools. We lost at least a dozen more depth piece type players. If you are prepared to assume that we win that game, you are assuming all of our unknowns work out well and Pitt's don't. I think the game is probably a toss-up, but if forced to guess I'd say it's an L due to the fact that we will be breaking in new systems on both sides of the ball and it is only the second game of the year. If we win it, it will be a good sign.
 
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#64
#64
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Objectively, we aren't a good team either. We went 3-7 last year.
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And you think that was a general problem... a whole team of sub-par players? Or was it the function of a coach and to a large degree an ineffective QB?

In retrospect, I think Fulmer hired Pruitt because they lined up in philosophy/style of play. Fulmer never admitted that he was rightly fired for allowing the game to evolve while he did not. He wanted to prove that 1990's football could still win today. JG in that way of thinking was the obvious choice. He didn't make as many mistakes. He "managed" the O better. So Pruitt committed to him and stuck with not only him but the style of play that made him their "best chance of winning". In a system like those that work today, JG holds a clipboard and doesn't need to wear a cup.

We lost arguably our best player on offense (Eric Gray) and defense (Henry T) to the portal. We lost the best signee in our incoming freshman class ratings wise (Dylan Brooks). We lost at least a half dozen other players to the portal who transferred to P5 schools. We lost at least a dozen more depth piece type players.
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UT has pieces to fill most of those holes. If the recruiting site rankings have any value at all... UT's fillers are better than Pitt's fillers.

If you are prepared to assume that we win that game, you are assuming all of our unknowns work out well and Pitt's don't.
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No. Just that you are assuming the opposite.

I think the game is probably a toss-up, but if forced to guess I'd say it's an L due to the fact that we will be breaking in new systems on both sides of the ball and it is only the second game of the year. If we win it, it will be a good sign.
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They're not a good team. In the SEC... they're a Vandy level team. If this staff is going to survive (I'm not saying they are) then this is precisely the kinds of games they win early.
 
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#65
#65
Sad_vol said:
8-4 to 9-3 achievable yet unlikely.
View attachment 356766
Tier 1- Bama Georgia Florida
Tier 2- Pitt Missouri USC Ole Miss UK
Tier 3- BG TTU USA Vandy
With the new schedule out and a new coaching staff and AD this seems like a fresh start in alot of ways its the offseason not alot going on and people are discussing everything from press conferences to uniforms and whether Coach Ekeler may or may not have kicked Pruitts ass. Thought it as good a time as any to discuss the new schedule possible record and our expectations or milestones we want to see achieved.
At a minimum for me to feel like we are headed in the right direction and be able to stomach the season we should beat all tier 3 and atleast 1 tier 2 to go 5-7 but that is only if certain conditions are met being.

1. I need to see alot better team on Nov.27th then on Sept.4th player improvement and development is a must.

2. Proper game plan adjustments made at halftime as opposed to Pruitt take last year's UGA game for example.

3. Be competitive in losses especially tier 2 teams last years blow out by Kentucky was unacceptable.

4. Team and staff seem to have chemistry and look like they want to be there or are enthusiastic. Last year I saw players and coaches sitting on the sidelines looking like me at the in-laws.

5. I want to see good play/decision making at QB.

6. I wanna score some points and play exciting football, be entertained even if we lose a game. Under Pruitt we were losers and very boring to watch this is a rebuilt and I can accept a loss but want to see some to be excited about.

For me to be happy with this season we should beat all tier 3 and beat 2 or 3 tier 3 teams to finish 6-6 or 7-5 and meet the conditions above and not have anything too embarrassing happen and I'm happy. A nice bonus would be a bowl win or playing competitively with a tier 1 team although neither of the bonuses are mandatory.

Final thoughts: This is probably the easiest schedule we have seen in a long time it could be possible to go 8-5 or 9-3 though not likely considering all the odds stacked against us a full transfer portal, installing a completely new system etc. I'm predicting we go 6-6 or 7-5 beating tier 3 beating USC and possibly going .500 with the other tier 2 teams I like our chances against ole miss and Pitt although I wish the dates were swapped for Pitt and south alabama because Pitt won't be a cupcake by any standards and I'd like more time to get used to new system. Missouri and Kentucky are the tier 2 teams that make me nervous.
As a vol fan I wanna say my prediction for all 12 games is #wgwtfa but im gonna set reasonable expectations instead.
Well that was my thoughts as if any one cares I know it was probably a little lengthy but there's not a whole lot to talk about this time of year let me know what any of you guys think.

Edit* I think I could have said Pruitt was a better coach then Neyland and I get less of a rise out of people who new way to early predictions could be this controversial 😂 not claiming my predictions are prophecy or telling you to bet the house on them.
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In review of the schedule there are 9 very winnable games and 3 (Bama, Florida, Ga) that we should not win.
 
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#68
#68
TMvol10 said:
I have zero expectations. Just along for the ride. My only hope is that we see improvement as the season goes.
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i don’t have expectations as far as the record goes for this year...my expectations are more focused on seeing a well coached, disciplined team on both sides of the ball and special teams...we will be out manned by the top tier teams but I expect us to play them tough...we will be on more equal footing (talent wise) with the mid tier teams so I would expect us to split those and then we should have comfortable wins against the lower tier programs.
 
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#71
#71
sjt18 said:
And you think that was a general problem... a whole team of sub-par players? Or was it the function of a coach and to a large degree an ineffective QB?

In retrospect, I think Fulmer hired Pruitt because they lined up in philosophy/style of play. Fulmer never admitted that he was rightly fired for allowing the game to evolve while he did not. He wanted to prove that 1990's football could still win today. JG in that way of thinking was the obvious choice. He didn't make as many mistakes. He "managed" the O better. So Pruitt committed to him and stuck with not only him but the style of play that made him their "best chance of winning". In a system like those that work today, JG holds a clipboard and doesn't need to wear a cup.

UT has pieces to fill most of those holes. If the recruiting site rankings have any value at all... UT's fillers are better than Pitt's fillers.

No. Just that you are assuming the opposite.


They're not a good team. In the SEC... they're a Vandy level team. If this staff is going to survive (I'm not saying they are) then this is precisely the kinds of games they win early.
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Looking at Pitt's record last year (6-5)

Austin Peay, W 55-0
Syracuse, W 21-10
Louisville, W 23-20
NC State, L 29-30
@ Boston College, L 30-31, OT
@Miami, L 19-31
Notre Dame, L 3-45
@Florida St., W 41-17
Virginia Tech, W 47-14,
@Clemson, L 17-52
@Georgia Tech, W 34-20

And comparing it to ours (3-7):

@S. Carolina, W 31-27
Missouri, W 35-12,
@Georgia, L 20-44
Kentucky, L 7-34
Alabama, L 17-48
@Arkansas, L 13-24
@Auburn, L 17-30
Florida, L 19-31
@ Vandy, W 42-17
Texas A&M, L 13-34

I have a hard time simply concluding we are a better football team.
 
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#72
#72
unfrozencvmanvol said:
Looking at Pitt's record last year (6-5)

Austin Peay, W 55-0
Syracuse, W 21-10
Louisville, W 23-20
NC State, L 29-30
@ Boston College, L 30-31, OT
@Miami, L 19-31
Notre Dame, L 3-45
@Florida St., W 41-17
Virginia Tech, W 47-14,
@Clemson, L 17-52
@Georgia Tech, W 34-20

And comparing it to ours (3-7):

@S. Carolina, W 31-27
Missouri, W 35-12,
@Georgia, L 20-44
Kentucky, L 7-34
Alabama, L 17-48
@Arkansas, L 13-24
@Auburn, L 17-30
Florida, L 19-31
@ Vandy, W 42-17
Texas A&M, L 13-34

I have a hard time simply concluding we are a better football team.
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Competition matters... and so does coaching. Do you truly believe that with competent coaching UT is a 3-7 team last year? I am not saying I know the new staff is competent... but from a neutral position on that subject... yes. UT has the better roster.

UT didn't have an Austin Peay on the schedule. Every team UT played including Vandy was better and more talented than they were. For that matter, UT didn't have a team as bad as 1-10 Syracuse either.

Not counting Austin Peay, the combined record of the teams Pitt beat last fall was 16-36. They didn't be a team that finished with a winning record. Their best win was Va Tech who finished 5-6. UT's wins weren't over more impressive competition.. But again, was that a product of a terrible roster or a terrible coach. I don't think there is a good case for it being a terrible roster.
 
#73
#73
PS- you also have to look at style of play. Pitt wants to do what UT tried to do the past 3 years. Slow the game. Play good D. Don't make mistakes. Manage the game. Hope to win with D and ST's.

If Heupel is effective at all in implementing his O then UT should score too many points for that style of play to work. We've seen it from the other side too often over the past few years.
 
#74
#74
I really hope that in the future White stops putting Bama at the end of an 8 week slugfest and maybe puts a bye before that game. I’m not saying it would make a difference right now, but one of these days we will be in contention and that’s one that we need to be at our absolute best for.
 
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#75
#75
sjt18 said:
And you just described 9 of UT's 12 opponents. UT has some holes. They also have some talent to fill most of those holes with LB being a very likely exception.

Of course you don't. Awfully convenient though.

One of many highly rated guys who failed to live up to the rating. As I've said for a very long time, the rating should not be given so much credence for any one particular player. Where they are most meaningful is "on average". A team with a roster that averages 3.8 stars is almost certain to have more talent than one that averages 3.2 stars.

Based on this you could say that you think the talent of those programs is close enough that you think UT will be outcoached. You could say but would need to prove that attrition has left the rosters in a different position. You will have a hard time arguing that the ratings have no ability to predict roster talent.

Your contention here would be that since JG was a bust... that means UT cannot possibly have a really good QB option out of Bailey 5*, Hooker 4*, Salter 4*, or Maurer 3* (and elite 11). The shear law of averages says that at least one of those guys is a good QB. UT has not had a coach that came close to utilizing the potential of its roster since Kiffin.... who isn't so great of a deal without Monte.
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Tennessee 2018 Football Commits

Tennessee 2019 Football Commits

Tennessee 2020 Football Commits

Tennessee 2021 Football Commits

1. Look at these classes and honestly tell me what you feel good about.

2. JG was an example. I used one guy. The point was some guys live up to the ranking and some don't. Florida has a basketball player who's a 5* sophomore that's coming off the bench. Why? Because he was over rated and he's not a 5*.

The example I used earlier about the QB situation in 1990 at Florida was to illustrate the point that even a great coach can't help everybody. The assumption always is that we change the coach, we change the strength guy, and we snap our fingers and we're great. There is this same kind of romanticism about Bear Bryant and the "Junction Boys" at A&M. He didn't win with the Junction Boys, The purpose of Junction was to run people off and replace them which is exactly what happened.

Kentucky has had more players drafted in the NFL draft the last 3 seasons than Tennessee. Ditto South Carolina. Missouri has had the same amount of guys drafted.

In the last 5 years, Kentucky has 37 wins, Missouri 30, South Carolina 28 and Tennessee 30.

There is no objective measure that says (at this point in time), there is a huge difference in the level of talent at these schools.

If you can find one other than the ones that everyone picks on when an Alabama commit changes from a 4* to a 5* after committing to Alabama, I'm open to it.
 
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