2019 Season Decision Tree

#1
VFL-82-JP

VFL-82-JP

Bleedin' Orange...
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#1
So we're going to see a lot of prediction threads in the coming four months. I thought I'd provide this, up front, as a visual aid for the discussions.

As I see it, the Vols could end up anywhere between 4-8 and 10-2 this season. Which means there are six key decision points, key games (BYU, FL, Miss St, USCe, Mizzou, & Vandy).

1556030621801.png

Could we beat Bama? Sure. But it's very unlikely. Could we lose to UT-Chattanooga? Yep, but equally unlikely. I wrote off the six games where there's less than a 20% chance of an unexpected outcome (Bama, UGa, Ky, and the cupcakes).

Hope this helps to frame the debates as we make our way through 2019's "talking season."

Me personally? Something between 6-6 and 9-3. If I had to pick one outcome, I'd (with a dash of hope) say 8-4.

Go Vols!
 
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#5
#5
VFL-82-JP said:
So we're going to see a lot of prediction threads in the coming four months. I thought I'd provide this, up front, as a visual aid for the discussions.

As I see it, the Vols could end up anywhere between 4-8 and 10-2 this season. Which means there are six key decision points, key games (BYU, FL, Miss St, USCe, Mizzou, & Vandy).

View attachment 202992

Could we beat Bama? Sure. But it's very unlikely. Could we lose to UT-Chattanooga? Yep, but equally unlikely. I wrote off the six games where there's less than a 20% chance of an unexpected outcome (Bama, UGa, Ky, and the cupcakes).

Hope this helps to frame the debates as we make our way through 2019's "talking season."

Me personally? Something between 6-6 and 9-3. If I had to pick one outcome, I'd (with a dash of hope) say 8-4.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

Cool chart, but you made me think to hard with it. I think we go 11-1 with the one loss to Florida.
 
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#6
#6
VFL-82-JP said:
So we're going to see a lot of prediction threads in the coming four months. I thought I'd provide this, up front, as a visual aid for the discussions.

As I see it, the Vols could end up anywhere between 4-8 and 10-2 this season. Which means there are six key decision points, key games (BYU, FL, Miss St, USCe, Mizzou, & Vandy).

View attachment 202992

Could we beat Bama? Sure. But it's very unlikely. Could we lose to UT-Chattanooga? Yep, but equally unlikely. I wrote off the six games where there's less than a 20% chance of an unexpected outcome (Bama, UGa, Ky, and the cupcakes).

Hope this helps to frame the debates as we make our way through 2019's "talking season."

Me personally? Something between 6-6 and 9-3. If I had to pick one outcome, I'd (with a dash of hope) say 8-4.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...
We play South Carolina at home
 
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#7
#7
4-8 & 10-2? 10-2 means we are or were in the conversation for a play off spot and this team does not have that type of talent IMO. 4 wins and Fulmer better start praying for miracles in 2020. Floor is 5 wins with a ceiling of 8. I do however love charts so thanks.
 
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#8
#8
"Anything Bowl eligible will be PROGRESS!" - Carnac

CARNACTHEMAGNIFICENT01.png
 
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#9
#9
I don’t see how a win against BYU is considered “real progress” if there wins against Auburn on the road and KY last year.
 
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#11
#11
VFL-82-JP said:
So we're going to see a lot of prediction threads in the coming four months. I thought I'd provide this, up front, as a visual aid for the discussions.

As I see it, the Vols could end up anywhere between 4-8 and 10-2 this season. Which means there are six key decision points, key games (BYU, FL, Miss St, USCe, Mizzou, & Vandy).

View attachment 202992

Could we beat Bama? Sure. But it's very unlikely. Could we lose to UT-Chattanooga? Yep, but equally unlikely. I wrote off the six games where there's less than a 20% chance of an unexpected outcome (Bama, UGa, Ky, and the cupcakes).

Hope this helps to frame the debates as we make our way through 2019's "talking season."

Me personally? Something between 6-6 and 9-3. If I had to pick one outcome, I'd (with a dash of hope) say 8-4.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

Just a couple of comments:


1. We weren't any better than UAB last year. Not sure we can call them a cupcake or gimme. SEC Teams that go 5-7 and quit the last 2 games just don't have a lot of gimmes on the schedule
2. We are just 2-2 this decade in Lexington. Can't call that a gimme or cupcake either.
3. There is a plausible scenario where we can win 10 games (I'm not as sold on UF as some) but if we play like we did the last 2 games, we will go 2-10.
 
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#12
#12
VFL-82-JP said:
So we're going to see a lot of prediction threads in the coming four months. I thought I'd provide this, up front, as a visual aid for the discussions.

As I see it, the Vols could end up anywhere between 4-8 and 10-2 this season. Which means there are six key decision points, key games (BYU, FL, Miss St, USCe, Mizzou, & Vandy).

View attachment 202992

Could we beat Bama? Sure. But it's very unlikely. Could we lose to UT-Chattanooga? Yep, but equally unlikely. I wrote off the six games where there's less than a 20% chance of an unexpected outcome (Bama, UGa, Ky, and the cupcakes).

Hope this helps to frame the debates as we make our way through 2019's "talking season."

Me personally? Something between 6-6 and 9-3. If I had to pick one outcome, I'd (with a dash of hope) say 8-4.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...
Nicely done. Very straightforward and easy to follow!

You’re counting Kentucky as a cupcake? I hope they are, but I’d argue for another branch there. Of course, then it wouldn’t fit on the page very well. 1556035558531.gif
 
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#13
#13
Pruitt's ability to handle BYU this year will be telling. They're a good football team with a lot of returning production on O. They have to replace some guys on D. UT returns most of their contributors though their contributions aren't exactly stellar.... but experience matters. Maturity matters. S&C matters. Player development matters. UT returns every WR who had a catch except for maybe one (Tillman)? They return most everyone who played on the OL. They return the starting QB, RB, TE's. I believe it is 9 of 11?

A lot of guys return on D... but almost none who played on the DL. That's scary. Gooden is really the only returnee who made a significant contribution.


BYU is a team that good P-5 teams and coaches beat. But they're not an easy out. I think we get to know how effective Pruitt's program is in that game.
 
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#14
#14
We should start out 3-0. If we play well against florida and lose close, then I think we are still ok. If we get mashed by them and then again by georgia, we may be demoralized. Another key is how we react to the stretch of games from florida to carolina. The UAB game will tell us if we are demoralized or if there's fight left. If we come out and punch them in the face and blow them out, I can see us probably winning out from there. I am saying 7-5 is probably the final tally.

However, if we are mentally and physically defeated after the run leading up to UAB, and they either play us close or beat us, we're done at that point and likely lose out and go 4-8 or 3-9.
 
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#15
#15
VFL-82-JP said:
So we're going to see a lot of prediction threads in the coming four months. I thought I'd provide this, up front, as a visual aid for the discussions.

As I see it, the Vols could end up anywhere between 4-8 and 10-2 this season. Which means there are six key decision points, key games (BYU, FL, Miss St, USCe, Mizzou, & Vandy).

View attachment 202992

Could we beat Bama? Sure. But it's very unlikely. Could we lose to UT-Chattanooga? Yep, but equally unlikely. I wrote off the six games where there's less than a 20% chance of an unexpected outcome (Bama, UGa, Ky, and the cupcakes).

Hope this helps to frame the debates as we make our way through 2019's "talking season."

Me personally? Something between 6-6 and 9-3. If I had to pick one outcome, I'd (with a dash of hope) say 8-4.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...

JMO, but I think our ceiling is 9-3 with the floor being 6-6. I think we'll see a big improvement in having the same S&C program for two years running. Our defense is built from the back end, which is not a bad thing. Lots of d-linemen returning that played minimal minutes so that they could redshirt. 2-3 newcomers on the d-line will help. Lot more competition for offensive line positions. I think Chaney makes a difference as well.

Historically speaking, we've gone through these dry spells; don't think we've ever been through one this long though. So, if things run in cycles and history repeats, we're due an uptick in regards to wins and championship contention. That's my optimistic view anyway.
 
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#16
#16
Behr said:
Because it's fun and it doesn't make one bit of difference in, Wait for it.....anything.
Click to expand...
When you are a player, an actual participant, you go out there and give it all you got, no defeatism, however as a fan, whose opinion, as you rightly state makes no difference in the outcome, I prefer not to let myself get too carried away with false hopes. To each his own, but really getting my hopes up that we will say, beat Florida at home, and then losing 47-21 sucks.

I prefer not to allow myself to receive that sort of a kick in the balls. Conversely, if we had happened to win, I would have enjoyed it just as much. That's the emotional wager I make, but if Orange Defense or anyone else wants to convince themselves year after year that we will drastically exceed all reasonable expectations, that's fine too. One of these days the law of averages says they'll eventually be right, and I'll be as happy as they are when they are.
 
Last edited:
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#17
#17
unfrozencvmanvol said:
When you are a player, an actual participant, you go out there and give it all you got, no defeatism, however as of fan, whose opinion, as you rightly state makes no difference in the outcome, I prefer not to let myself get too carried away with false hopes. To each his own, but really getting my hopes up that we will say, beat Florida at home, and then losing 47-21 sucks.

I prefer not to allow myself to receive that sort of a kick in the balls. Conversely, if we had happened to win, I would have enjoyed it just as much. That's the emotional wager I make, but if Orange Defense or anyone else wants to convince themselves year after year that we will drastically exceed all reasonable expectations, that's fine too. One of these days the law of averages says they'll eventually be right, and I'll be as happy as they are when they are.
Click to expand...

You said it, "to each thier" own. I just think its funny how much it bothers some people when others are more optimistic than they are and call it foolish, delusion, fantasy or "you're on crack" and act stupid by asking how they can be that way?

Anyway, we've been having this same discussion forever it seems. As long as the stupid questions keep getting asked, the stupid answers will keep being given.
 
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#18
#18
Behr said:
You said it, "to each thier" own. I just think its funny how much it bothers some people when others are more optimistic than they are and call it foolish, delusion, fantasy or "you're on crack" and act stupid by asking how they can be that way?

Anyway, we've been having this same discussion forever it seems. As long as the stupid questions keep getting asked, the stupid answers will keep being given.
Click to expand...
I agree, the only person I ever give crap is Nationdom, who I am pretty sure is just trolling.
 
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#21
#21
VFL-82-JP said:
So we're going to see a lot of prediction threads in the coming four months. I thought I'd provide this, up front, as a visual aid for the discussions.

As I see it, the Vols could end up anywhere between 4-8 and 10-2 this season. Which means there are six key decision points, key games (BYU, FL, Miss St, USCe, Mizzou, & Vandy).

View attachment 202992

Could we beat Bama? Sure. But it's very unlikely. Could we lose to UT-Chattanooga? Yep, but equally unlikely. I wrote off the six games where there's less than a 20% chance of an unexpected outcome (Bama, UGa, Ky, and the cupcakes).

Hope this helps to frame the debates as we make our way through 2019's "talking season."

Me personally? Something between 6-6 and 9-3. If I had to pick one outcome, I'd (with a dash of hope) say 8-4.

Go Vols!
Click to expand...
no issue with that. i tend to look at it a tad different, but not enough to get riled up. i figure GA and Bama and definite L's like you have. i figure GSU, UAB, and UTC are definite W's, just like you.

so we're 3-2 before we even start. the other 7 games i'd put in the toss up category, at best. need to go 4-3 against that part of the schedule, at worst. 5-2 would be better. :)
 
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#25
#25
bluetick2 said:
Well, actually yes. I do believe that the qb position Is unique enough that with some qb's there is a certain ceiling that your team cannot overcome
Click to expand...
ok. so it's on him. the other 85 have no say....except to hope someone else starts at QB.
 
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