2019 quarterback situation/Maurer says he is coming in to start

[Devo182]

And that's untrue? Bray didn't win games but the O was prolific without a great OL. Bama's first QB's under Saban were largely considered "game managers" while they won with D... but they won. I'd take JG in a heartbeat as a 55% passer who led the team to scores and wins.

Untrue about Bray and the OL.

Bray:
2011 - 20 ppg - not prolific
2012 - 36 ppg - prolific...but also behind the best OL since peak Fulmer days. They were 3rd nationally giving up 8 sacks. 6th nationally in TFLs allowed. 44th in rush average, similar to 2015, yet without an nfl back on the roster.


I don't even understand your statement on taking JG as a 55% passer and winning more games, makes no sense. You're really saying you'd accept a worse qb if the TEAM won more. The only way that could happen is if run and defense improved. Nothing to do with jg.

 

[Devo182]

You can't look at "more touchdowns" and "more yards" when JG didn't throw the ball near as much. All we have is a projection based on averages. Had UT thrown the as much as Missouri, JG would have been projected to have had about the same numbers as Lock. It goes the same way for Lock. Had he only thrown about as many times as JG, he would have about the same numbers.

Most well reasoned post of the year award.

 

[Devo182]

Well I'll chime in on this. Hope JG progresses and the OL progresses and we win north of 6+ no matter who starts.
For those who say only stats matter on individual competition, ask yourself this. If JG came out for draft this year would he be the 1st SEC QB drafted. Lock will be the 1st SEC QB drafted that is the ultimate individual competition

Don't think anyone has said as much, though that's a different point to a degree. Only that he had equivalent stats for a single season. Lock has been doing it for 3-4 years, he's proven. JG looked pretty bad in 2017, so yeah he needs to prove it longer. And fwiw, he may be #1, but Tua and Fromm aren't eligible. THAT ALL SAID, I think Lock's attributes translate to the NFL as well as any of them. He's already great at RPOs and has one of the quickest triggers I've seen. JG imo doesn't have those same qualities, better suited for college ball.

 

[Bucket18]

Peyton is the only tennessee qb i recall with ability to start as a freshman.
I guess things have got to complex for that to happen today. I would say unless
JG is injured it want happen. The 2020 youngster is a different story.

 

[sjt18]

FTR, Bray was a head case at UT so he's not the "ideal" model... just recent enough playing behind a weak OL as a Fr to make a comparison with what JG had this year.

Untrue about Bray and the OL.

Bray:
2011 - 20 ppg - not prolific

Nope. In games that Bray played, UT scored 28 ppg... including when he played injured and supposedly with the flu vs UK.

2012 - 36 ppg - prolific...but also behind the best OL since peak Fulmer days. They were 3rd nationally giving up 8 sacks. 6th nationally in TFLs allowed. 44th in rush average, similar to 2015, yet without an nfl back on the roster.

Well... yeah. Bray knew how to see coverage, make good reads, and get the ball out in a hurry when he had to. That makes the OL look better.

I don't think anyone is saying that the '18 OL was a great one. But it didn't help that JG doesn't know how to do what Bray and others have done very well.

Interesting that you seemed to have avoided the best year to prove my point. In his Fr year, Bray didn't play much until UGA and didn't start until two games later. An OL that supposedly couldn't pass block suddenly got much better. An O that only went over 20 pts vs one FBS opponent (UAB) in the first 7 attempts... averaged 35 ppg behind Bray who though cursed with feet of stone... knew how and when to get the ball out.


You don't even have to look that far back. JG fans LOVE to trash Dormady... but in the 3 games where only he played with the starters UT averaged 35 ppg. Only 17 when they split time vs UMass... then the UGA disaster. In 5 games, QD only took a sack 3 times. JG was sacked 32 times. Yes. JG had a better completion % but the O would have been better if he'd thrown the ball away more.

I don't even understand your statement on taking JG as a 55% passer and winning more games, makes no sense. You're really saying you'd accept a worse qb if the TEAM won more. The only way that could happen is if run and defense improved. Nothing to do with jg.

That's not really surprising.

But here is at least one more way that a QB could be more effective with a lower completion %. Opposing D's often gave JG short check downs on 3rd down. He took them... and the drive ended. If he had thrown something downfield on each of those failed conversions and completed 40% for a first down then UT would have sustained more drives and likely scored more points with him having a lower completion %. If he threw more down the middle of the field... more slants... more plays where he led receivers into YAC... those plays would have brought his completion % down but could have helped the O be more effective.

UT was 10th in the SEC in 3rd down conversions and 11th in pass plays over 10 yards. Oddly... the Vols were better comparatively at passes over 20 yards primarily because of the jump ball types of passes he threw vs Auburn and UK. What that basically boils down to is the fact that completion % does not always equate to effective offensive drives or points.

 

[Remy]

Peyton is the only tennessee qb i recall with ability to start as a freshman.
I guess things have got to complex for that to happen today. I would say unless
JG is injured it want happen. The 2020 youngster is a different story.

Also how quickly they forget: "Schaeffer began his college career at the University of Tennessee, where he became the first true freshman quarterback to start a season opener for an SEC team since freshman eligibility was restored in 1973[3] and the first in 59 years." Brent was replaced a couple of games later by another freshman, a guy named Ainge.

 

[3Tennessee]

JG all the way! It's hard to show talent with no blocking. This kid gets hit and drove to the ground almost
every play. Highly talented coming out of HS. He will be fine if we get some blocking. He is also very mobile
with the right coordinator.

 

[cgrish]

JG all the way! It's hard to show talent with no blocking. This kid gets hit and drove to the ground almost
every play. Highly talented coming out of HS. He will be fine if we get some blocking. He is also very mobile
with the right coordinator.

I won't say jg does not have talent. But mobility is certainly not one of his talents.

 

[ftsandersvol]

The coaches seem to be very high on Shrout. Guarantano has to be the presumptive starter, but I wouldn't be shocked if Shrout got a chance to play. And if he really is the guy, then he could work his way into being the full-time starter. Maurer doesn't really expect to be the starter right away. He's just saying what all kids in his position say. He'll sit and learn and wait for his day to come.

Given the new redshirt rule, I’m surprised we didn’t see Shrout toward the end of the MZ and/or the Vandy game.

 

[3Tennessee]

I won't say jg does not have talent. But mobility is certainly not one of his talents.

I won't say jg does not have talent. But mobility is certainly not one of his talents.

Just check out his HS videos, enough said!

 

[Batman1948]

Not exactly a good way for an incoming freshman to endear himself to his teammates. Why not, keep that goal to yourself. Keep your head down, mouth shut, and just work harder than anyone else.

Every player coming in needs that attitude. It doesn't mean their going to start but at least it shows they aren't afraid of competition. Very few freshmen will start but some do and maybe this one will.

 

[Shadowboxer]

Untrue about Bray and the OL.

Bray:
2011 - 20 ppg - not prolific
2012 - 36 ppg - prolific...but also behind the best OL since peak Fulmer days. They were 3rd nationally giving up 8 sacks. 6th nationally in TFLs allowed. 44th in rush average, similar to 2015, yet without an nfl back on the roster.


I don't even understand your statement on taking JG as a 55% passer and winning more games, makes no sense. You're really saying you'd accept a worse qb if the TEAM won more. The only way that could happen is if run and defense improved. Nothing to do with jg.

Rajon Neal was the featured back of this team and he played 5 years in the NFL.

 

[DustyRockSolid]

I doubt there is anyone here who a) denies that the OL was weak or b) that JG made some good reads and plays.

But the OL also had some good plays where JG failed. Toward the end of the season the OL became much better at pass protection and JG played worse.

This is NOT nor ever has been an argument between those who believed it was all JG's fault and those who blamed everyone else. It is always an argument started by a few cult like JG fans willing to throw everyone else under the bus and those who recognize that he has issues too.

Every single person I have saw defend JG have all admitted he has flaws. We know he isn't perfect. We know JG has made mistakes. You keep saying we refuse to admit he has flaws and made mistakes...but we dont. We just think JG is much better than you give him credit for. You guys just assume that because someone defends JG, we are JG lovers and think he can do no wrong.

 

[DustyRockSolid]

Lol, I said the same thing on another thread. I was told it was the dumbest statement ever. I agree with you.

Good thing he is gonna start. This year and next.

 

[Batman1948]

I hope we have a QB wanting to transfer every year because that would mean we have some very young players at the QB position. I really believe Bailey could be the man for 3 years. He has Pro football size as a junior in high school and he could come in ready to go from day one.

 

[sjt18]

Every single person I have saw defend JG have all admitted he has flaws. We know he isn't perfect. We know JG has made mistakes. You keep saying we refuse to admit he has flaws and made mistakes...but we dont.

Yet you all tend to go ballistic any time anyone describes a specific flaw... then turn to blaming the OL for his problems.

We just think JG is much better than you give him credit for. You guys just assume that because someone defends JG, we are JG lovers and think he can do no wrong.

I give him credit. He has a good, accurate arm. He's been loyal. He's been tough.

But he is lagging in reading D's. His management of the pocket isn't great even after you account for the OL's weakness. But the worst thing I see is that he's too slow making decisions.

I want him to be great... or even as good as some think he already is. But if he doesn't get to the point where he reads the D and gets the ball out on time... he's a liability even if the OL improves.

Dormady had his own set of weaknesses but in 5 games... he was sacked maybe 3 or 4 times. In 7 games, JG was sacked 32 times. The difference wasn't physical. JG had an advantage in pure physical ability. The difference was in how quickly each of them saw and processed information so they could select a receiver and throw. I watched some video of KC before the season and didn't feel that he was the solution. But in his limited serious PT... he made quicker decisions and got the ball out. You can pick on the quality of his decisions but it still provides a good contrast to JG.

 

[Devo182]

FTR, Bray was a head case at UT so he's not the "ideal" model... just recent enough playing behind a weak OL as a Fr to make a comparison with what JG had this year. Nope. In games that Bray played, UT scored 28 ppg... including when he played injured and supposedly with the flu vs UK.
Well... yeah. Bray knew how to see coverage, make good reads, and get the ball out in a hurry when he had to. That makes the OL look better.

I don't think anyone is saying that the '18 OL was a great one. But it didn't help that JG doesn't know how to do what Bray and others have done very well.

Interesting that you seemed to have avoided the best year to prove my point. In his Fr year, Bray didn't play much until UGA and didn't start until two games later. An OL that supposedly couldn't pass block suddenly got much better. An O that only went over 20 pts vs one FBS opponent (UAB) in the first 7 attempts... averaged 35 ppg behind Bray who though cursed with feet of stone... knew how and when to get the ball out.

Your point, not quoted here, on JG vs Dormady sacks is perfectly legitimate. I once went game by game and JG was giving up 5 sacks/game, vs Dormady's 1. Absolutely his worst characteristic. I argued a lot last offseason he absolutely had to improve there or else all his passing abilities wouldnt be enough to make up for 5 sacks a game. That said, he made great progress this year in that area. 23 sacks allowed, so less than 2 a game. Can still improve a lot more, but y-o-y progress is encouraging so far.

Didn't mean to exclude 2010 Bray, didn't think he played much that year. I do see he did well, granted vs some baaad defenses. That memphis D gave up 40 a game! Ole miss gave up 35 a game! But theres no doubt he was a big upgrade over Simms.

2011 Bray...maybe 28 ppg but look at vs who. He missed lsu, bama, #9 usc, #5 arkansas. He tore up fcs/g5 and only averaged a miserable 17 ppg in league play. By 2012, an ELITE ol was together and everything came together. I believe they gave something like 21-23 sacks in 2 years combined.

I don't think anyone would argue JG's biggest weakness is taking sacks, but he's also made great strides in that area. But don't get it twisted on this OL, it was legitimately horrific all on its own, just look at rushing and s&p+, where they rank over 100th in many categories.

 

[Devo182]

Rajon Neal was the featured back of this team and he played 5 years in the NFL.

Let's say "NFL caliber" back. C'mon, he went undrafted, had 3 years in the NFL for 114 PRESEASON yards. Not a single regular season game played. He was a practice squad guy.

Loved him in orange though. But him and Lane were both able to average over 5.2 ypc in the same year. Even Kamara and Hurd didn't do that.

 

[Devo182]

But here is at least one more way that a QB could be more effective with a lower completion %. Opposing D's often gave JG short check downs on 3rd down. He took them... and the drive ended. If he had thrown something downfield on each of those failed conversions and completed 40% for a first down then UT would have sustained more drives and likely scored more points with him having a lower completion %. If he threw more down the middle of the field... more slants... more plays where he led receivers into YAC... those plays would have brought his completion % down but could have helped the O be more effective.

That's why we also look at ypa and qbr. I'm not that big on comp% myself, as long as efficiency is high. If he chucked 30 yarders vs 3 yd outs, well then that's reflected in ypa and qbr. But fwiw, I remember his 3rd down passing being really good. I can't count the number of times he and Callaway or JJ bailed us out on 3rd and long. Meanwhile, 3rd down rushes seemed to fail far too often. Worse yet, 3rd downs were extra tough for us, because they were 3rd and long an absurd amount of the time.

UT was 10th in the SEC in 3rd down conversions and 11th in pass plays over 10 yards. Oddly... the Vols were better comparatively at passes over 20 yards primarily because of the jump ball types of passes he threw vs Auburn and UK. What that basically boils down to is the fact that completion % does not always equate to effective offensive drives or points.

10 yards vs 20 yards is largely because of our scheme and routes. How many midrange throws did we ever throw? Very rare. Helton's whole strategy was run, run, short throw, then PA deep.

Agree completion % isn't the best stat to consider by any means. But many old schoolers are still obsessed with it, much like spouting off total passing yards or total rushing yards, etc.

 

[sjt18]

That's why we also look at ypa and qbr. I'm not that big on comp% myself, as long as efficiency is high. If he chucked 30 yarders vs 3 yd outs, well then that's reflected in ypa and qbr. But fwiw, I remember his 3rd down passing being really good. I can't count the number of times he and Callaway or JJ bailed us out on 3rd and long. Meanwhile, 3rd down rushes seemed to fail far too often.



10 yards vs 20 yards is largely because of our scheme and routes. How many midrange throws did we ever throw? Very rare. Helton's whole strategy was run, run, short throw, then PA deep.

Agree completion % isn't the best stat to consider by any means. But many old schoolers are still obsessed with it, much like spouting off total passing yards or total rushing yards, etc.

Ultimately, the important thing is W's and points. Somewhere... there is a breakdown of how much of the problem lies with JG and how much with others. You and I don't seem to be too far apart. I'm just saying that he has some issues... and I'm rooting for him to improve because I don't think the other options are good enough yet. And for that matter.... because I would love to see his non-physical skills match his physical skills... behind a "good" OL. It could be fun.

 

[Devo182]

Sorry just found 3rd down passing stats. 3rd and long we were 56.5%. That's pretty legit. For context, our best recent offense, 2016, completed only 42.5% on 3rd and long.
But it sure would be nice if we just didnt have so many 3rd and longs!! 57% of all 3rd downs this year. Versus 42% in 2016.

 

[Devo182]

Also on 2012 - 36 ppg but iirc it was also 5-7, same as this year. Which goes back to original point - each person, position, etc can only control what it can control.