2018-2019 Predictions Thread

[Dallasbowlin]

If we don’t win the sec, and are a 5 seed that’s regression. You have almost the same team. That’s going to be even better than they were last year.

 

[Chris4Vols22]

I may have to jump on Dallas's side here. Has any team ever reached the pinnacle of greatness? How do you even quantify that? Has there ever been any team that has had zero need for improvement in any area?

 

[Chris4Vols22]

If a team goes undefeated and shuts out every opponent with 100% shot block rate, and also doesn't miss a single shot all season, that MAY be the point in which you could say there's no room for improvement.

 

[cncchris33]

If a team goes undefeated and shuts out every opponent with 100% shot block rate, and also doesn't miss a single shot all season, that MAY be the point in which you could say there's no room for improvement.

His original argument didn't seem to focus in on the idea that you can improve individually, fundamentally, or statistically. It was that we should expect to progress every year. Simply an improved record, especially in basketball, isn't necessarily an indicator of progression. How does Villanova progress this year?

 

[Chris4Vols22]

His original argument didn't seem to focus in on the idea that you can improve individually, fundamentally, or statistically. It was that we should expect to progress every year. Simply an improved record, especially in basketball, isn't necessarily an indicator of progression. How does Villanova progress this year?

I see what you guys were saying. Not sure if Dal was necessarily speaking in those terms though. I'm guilty of not conveying exactly what I mean... I withdraw my previous comment lol

 

[bleedingTNorange]

How is that any different than what I’m saying? There’s been one other person. You’re trying to make an argument for the sake of it. Like always. It’s the truth.

The thread is about predicting the record, my post was about their overall record, you commented and said that the expectation is to progress every year...given that the thread and my reply were both about predicting records and you quoted my post and replied, why would anyone assume you were suddenly talking about improving on fundamentals and not discussing the topic at hand which was predicting their record?

If you wanna talk about there are always ways to improve then sure, but that’s not what the topic was, and it wasn’t at all what my post was about so not sure why you would’ve quoted my post to change the topic.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I may have to jump on Dallas's side here. Has any team ever reached the pinnacle of greatness? How do you even quantify that? Has there ever been any team that has had zero need for improvement in any area?

The thread and my post which he replied to were about predicting overall record, to which he replied the expectation is to improve every year...it wasn’t about statically categories and individual/team fundamentals, he has moved it to that because the original point didn’t make sense.

 

[Dallasbowlin]

The thread is about predicting the record, my post was about their overall record, you commented and said that the expectation is to progress every year...given that the thread and my reply were both about predicting records and you quoted my post and replied, why would anyone assume you were suddenly talking about improving on fundamentals and not discussing the topic at hand which was predicting their record?

If you wanna talk about there are always ways to improve then sure, but that’s not what the topic was, and it wasn’t at all what my post was about so not sure why you would’ve quoted my post to change the topic.

let me put it this way. You can always improve. rather that be record, or fundamentally. Our record can (and should) improve this year. Maybe by one or two games, but that’s improvement. The only time your record can’t improve is if you go 40-0. If that point you just hope to improve on fundamentals. Which, let’s be honest, we don’t have the schedule to go 40-0, so that doesn’t really matter.

 

[cncchris33]

let me put it this way. You can always improve. rather that be record, or fundamentally. Our record can (and should) improve this year. Maybe by one or two games, but that’s improvement. The only time your record can’t improve is if you go 40-0. If that point you just hope to improve on fundamentals. Which, let’s be honest, we don’t have the schedule to go 40-0, so that doesn’t really matter.

I just think it's a lazy argument to make to say we should improve our record just because we return a large portion of our roster. It seems like a loose application of the transitive property. So many factors could come between us and a better record, and have nothing to do with whether or not we actually improved as a team. Injuries, suspensions, SOS, conference strength, matchups, etc. could all affect games out of our favor that went in our favor last season.

If we lose two more games and finish 21-9 in the regular season with a 5 seed in the NCAAT, yet make it to the Elite Eight, did we progress, or not?

Progression/improvement is a multi-faceted measurement, especially in a tournament sport like college basketball.

 

[Dallasbowlin]

I just think it's a lazy argument to make to say we should improve our record just because we return a large portion of our roster. It seems like a loose application of the transitive property. So many factors could come between us and a better record, and have nothing to do with whether or not we actually improved as a team. Injuries, suspensions, SOS, conference strength, matchups, etc. could all affect games out of our favor that went in our favor last season.

If we lose two more games and finish 21-9 in the regular season with a 5 seed in the NCAAT, yet make it to the Elite Eight, did we progress, or not?

Progression/improvement is a multi-faceted measurement, especially in a tournament sport like college basketball.

Yes, all of that stuff is factored in. If we stay healthy, and out of trouble is factored. As far as the last question, it depends on which you think is more important. A ncaa tourney run would be progress. But a less successful ref season is regression. It depends on what you believe is more important.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

let me put it this way. You can always improve. rather that be record, or fundamentally. Our record can (and should) improve this year. Maybe by one or two games, but that’s improvement. The only time your record can’t improve is if you go 40-0. If that point you just hope to improve on fundamentals. Which, let’s be honest, we don’t have the schedule to go 40-0, so that doesn’t really matter.

Still doesn’t make any more sense than what you were saying originally...Villanova didn’t go 40-0, but nobody including their coach realistically is expecting them to improve on their record.

There are too many variable to flat out make a blanket statement that your record should improve every season, very lazy take.

 

[Dallasbowlin]

Still doesn’t make any more sense than what you were saying originally...Villanova didn’t go 40-0, but nobody including their coach realistically is expecting them to improve on their record.

There are too many variable to flat out make a blanket statement that your record should improve every season, very lazy take.

Opinions are like assholes. Every ones got them. I can see where you’re coming from. It’s just my opinion.

 

[calban]

Opinions are like assholes. Every ones got them. I can see where you’re coming from. It’s just my opinion.

It's just one of the same old splitting hairs arguments that go on here. Barnes himself has said repeatedly to his players. "we need to get better." If that's not asking for improvement, I don't know what it is. and he seems to say it every season.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

It's just one of the same old splitting hairs arguments that go on here. Barnes himself has said repeatedly to his players. "we need to get better." If that's not asking for improvement, I don't know what it is. and he seems to say it every season.

Nobody has said otherwise, every player has a spot they can improve, even the best in the world. However it’s still just as impossible as it was before to improve your record every single year.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Opinions are like assholes. Every ones got them. I can see where you’re coming from. It’s just my opinion.

Not so fast.

 

[VolGee4]

I’m not trying to rain on anyone’s day, I’m usually the optimistic one, but almost 50% of people expect this team to go 27-3 or better. To me that is just absolutely crazy, could it happen? Sure, but I sure as heck am not expecting it.

Then again this is the same fanbase that watched a team go 4-8 and then over the course of 4 months talked themselves into thinking a new coach was gonna bring them an 8-4 season,..so not that shocking I guess.

Big generalization. Many said we could/should probably win 6 games and if the ball bounces right, you might add a win or two. But I think most had it pegged as a 6-6 team.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Big generalization. Many said we could/should probably win 6 games and if the ball bounces right, you might add a win or two. But I think most had it pegged as a 6-6 team.

I don’t venture into the FB forum, so just going off what I saw on twitter which was people saying 7-5/8-4 and talking themselves into thinking we had a good shot to upset WVA.

 

[VolGee4]

I don’t venture into the FB forum, so just going off what I saw on twitter which was people saying 7-5/8-4 and talking themselves into thinking we had a good shot to upset WVA.

I am not on Twitter. I just think it’s a bit of a stretch when you are using a few people on Twitter to make your argument.

7-5 is actually very realistic right now. Last year’s team went 4-8 with bad development and play calling. Could have won 3 more.

 

[cncchris33]

I am not on Twitter. I just think it’s a bit of a stretch when you are using a few people on Twitter to make your argument.

7-5 is actually very realistic right now. Last year’s team went 4-8 with bad development and play calling. Could have won 3 more.

Oooooh...really? You really expect us to finish 4-2 knowing one of those two Ls is coming up in four days? That’s seems quite optimistic. I’m still not convinced we will be favored over anyone but Vandy and Charlotte going forward. MAYBE Mizzou depending on what happens over the next month.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I am not on Twitter. I just think it’s a bit of a stretch when you are using a few people on Twitter to make your argument.

7-5 is actually very realistic right now. Last year’s team went 4-8 with bad development and play calling. Could have won 3 more.

Not sure I would call 7-5 realistic right now but I think that take is pretty supportive of my previous statement of how this fanbase quickly talks themselves into lofty expectations.

 

[VolGee4]

Not sure I would call 7-5 realistic right now but I think that take is pretty supportive of my previous statement of how this fanbase quickly talks themselves into lofty expectations.

Not lofty at all. A win last Saturday gives you hope and the team confidence that they can now beat Missouri, Kentucky, and Vandy.

If you want to call 7-5 lofty, then we have different definitions. This team has more talent than the ones that I mentioned.

 

[VolGee4]

Oooooh...really? You really expect us to finish 4-2 knowing one of those two Ls is coming up in four days? That’s seems quite optimistic. I’m still not convinced we will be favored over anyone but Vandy and Charlotte going forward. MAYBE Mizzou depending on what happens over the next month.

Half full/ half empty. People have different opinions. We have more talent than the last 4 teams on our schedule. That’s not an opinion.

Maybe they go less than 7-5 but that doesn’t mean someone is wrong with an assessment.

I would say chances are better at 6-6 but not totally unrealistic at 7-5.

 

[cncchris33]

Half full/ half empty. People have different opinions. We have more talent than the last 4 teams on our schedule. That’s not an opinion.

Maybe they go less than 7-5 but that doesn’t mean someone is wrong with an assessment.

I would say chances are better at 6-6 but not totally unrealistic at 7-5.

Well, I mean I hope they finish that well, too. I wouldn’t say I expect it, or that it is even likely. I’m not sure it’s accurate to say it’s a fact that we have more talent than the teams left on our schedule. On paper, that seems to be the case through the lens of recruiting rankings, but that is more opinion than it is fact. For example, Kentucky has as many, perhaps more, pros on their team than we do, IMO. Charlotte and Vandy, I’d agree. Across the board, I probably agree on Mizzou as well.

In the end, perceived talent doesn’t always matter. To bring this conversation full-circle, on paper, our basketball team has less talent than every other top 10 team too, yet we find ourselves firmly in many people’s top 5.

Again, I hope you are right and the Auburn win was a turning point, and maybe I’m just too jaded. It just feels like I’ve heard this song before only to see us stumble. Not speaking of you particularly, but a lot of the people back on the bandwagon now will be right back off if we get thrashed by Bama this week and struggle to score more than 10 points. For me to jump on the bandwagon immediately would only make me as wishy-washy as them. I predicted a 5-7 season for a reason, and I can’t let one really solid win amongst 3 blowout losses sway me just yet. I hope to be standing pleasantly surprised at seasons end when I’m wrong.

 

[VolGee4]

Well, I mean I hope they finish that well, too. I wouldn’t say I expect it, or that it is even likely. I’m not sure it’s accurate to say it’s a fact that we have more talent than the teams left on our schedule. On paper, that seems to be the case through the lens of recruiting rankings, but that is more opinion than it is fact. For example, Kentucky has as many, perhaps more, pros on their team than we do, IMO. Charlotte and Vandy, I’d agree. Across the board, I probably agree on Mizzou as well.

In the end, perceived talent doesn’t always matter. To bring this conversation full-circle, on paper, our basketball team has less talent than every other top 10 team too, yet we find ourselves firmly in many people’s top 5.

Again, I hope you are right and the Auburn win was a turning point, and maybe I’m just too jaded. It just feels like I’ve heard this song before only to see us stumble. Not speaking of you particularly, but a lot of the people back on the bandwagon now will be right back off if we get thrashed by Bama this week and struggle to score more than 10 points. For me to jump on the bandwagon immediately would only make me as wishy-washy as them. I predicted a 5-7 season for a reason, and I can’t let one really solid win amongst 3 blowout losses sway me just yet. I hope to be standing pleasantly surprised at seasons end when I’m wrong.

The topic though was realistic. By your own admission, comparing talent against Charlotte, Vandy, and Mizzou, ours is better. That's 6 wins. Then, you either have to beat USCe or UK, who has beaten us twice in the last 33 years, even when we had bad teams. Will it happen? I don't know. Do you and I differ on opinions? Sure. Is it unrealistic based on all variables? No.

To bring it back full circle, comparing the UK football team to our basketball team is probably a good one. But now we have basketball fans who are predicting (and some maybe even expecting) a FF appearance. I would love to see it. Is that realistic? High percentage that it isn't happening.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Not lofty at all. A win last Saturday gives you hope and the team confidence that they can now beat Missouri, Kentucky, and Vandy.

If you want to call 7-5 lofty, then we have different definitions. This team has more talent than the ones that I mentioned.

According to many people the team also had more talent than WVA and better coaches then UF....