1) I don't trust 24/7, especially not anything derived from their composite rankings. As I've mentioned, calculating for attrition has generally had a very high time investment with negligible return in predictive evals.
2) What is Georgia Tech's performance to talent the past few years?
3) UT *could* lose to either or both UF or GA Tech. In fact even with a talent predicted 70% chance to beat both individually, it means there's basically a 50% chance to lose one of the two.
4) I would agree that an 8 win prediction is within normal ranges but I'd say the likelihood of 7 isn't particularly high. In fact it's probably similar to the chance of winning 11.
All this said, honestly, I'm dubious myself. Believe it or not, I'm not particularly fond of Jones or of his long term prospects. But, I come across as a defender when I'm trying to correct perspectives that are unreasonably negative and myopic. What Jones is doing on the field is typical for the majority of coaches. What he has done in recruiting is better than many could do at UT given the recent competition to the recruiting footprint of the Vols. And, there really aren't a pool of coaches who have a history of both great recruiting and significantly over performing, that are available (nor do I believe the UT admin could find them if they existed and were available). In fact, most coaches who significantly over perform do so by pretty stable and mediocre recruiting. They often recruit to a system, and have difficulty breaking through into championship contender range (in other words, no real change from where we are now, just worse talent left for the inevitable coaching change). All that said, it means a change is likely to produce no real positive effect until Bama falls back to earth post Saban and power gets reshuffled in the SEC. Granted, I'm oversimplifying and talking in generalities, but that's the landscape as I see it.
