2016 NFL Draft Thread
- Thread starter Notorious B.E.N
- Start date
- Joined
- Aug 13, 2008
- Messages
- 70,784
- Likes
- 42,661
- Joined
- Jan 6, 2013
- Messages
- 97,478
- Likes
- 176,995
- Joined
- Mar 11, 2009
- Messages
- 80,931
- Likes
- 47,272
Of course, there are exceptions to the rule. Good for KC. The track record for teams trading up is horrific. Here is the last 17 years of trading up:
Jason Campbell
Jay Cutler
Brady Quinn
Joe Flacco
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Tim Tebow
Blaine Gabert
RGIII
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Paxton Lynch
Mitch Trubisky
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Jordan Love
Trey Lance
Justin Fields
So about a 15-20% success rate depending if you like Flacco. He wasn't very good but did win a SB. And relatively speaking, those teams did a pretty good job of moving up a lot without trading the farm. Ravens used a 3rd and a 4th to move up 8 spots for Flacco, and used a 2nd and 4th to move up 20 spots for Lamar. Texans only used a 1st to move up 13 spots for Watson (and they are lucky to salvage the asset last year). Bills moved up 5 spots from 12 to get Allen with two late 2nds (htf did they do that? Compare that to Jets using two early 2nds and a mid 2nd to move up 3 spots). Mahomes only cost a 1st and a 3rd to move up. They were much safer trades than most of the rest.
The ones you really want to stay away from are the ones where you throw in a bunch to move up a handful of spots. Doesn't seem to have ever worked.
Jason Campbell
Jay Cutler
Brady Quinn
Joe Flacco
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Tim Tebow
Blaine Gabert
RGIII
Johnny Manziel
Teddy Bridgewater
Jared Goff
Carson Wentz
Paxton Lynch
Mitch Trubisky
Patrick Mahomes
Deshaun Watson
Sam Darnold
Josh Allen
Josh Rosen
Lamar Jackson
Jordan Love
Trey Lance
Justin Fields
So about a 15-20% success rate depending if you like Flacco. He wasn't very good but did win a SB. And relatively speaking, those teams did a pretty good job of moving up a lot without trading the farm. Ravens used a 3rd and a 4th to move up 8 spots for Flacco, and used a 2nd and 4th to move up 20 spots for Lamar. Texans only used a 1st to move up 13 spots for Watson (and they are lucky to salvage the asset last year). Bills moved up 5 spots from 12 to get Allen with two late 2nds (htf did they do that? Compare that to Jets using two early 2nds and a mid 2nd to move up 3 spots). Mahomes only cost a 1st and a 3rd to move up. They were much safer trades than most of the rest.
The ones you really want to stay away from are the ones where you throw in a bunch to move up a handful of spots. Doesn't seem to have ever worked.
Last edited:
- Joined
- Mar 11, 2009
- Messages
- 80,931
- Likes
- 47,272
Just build into your model a 75%+ fail rate when doing the expected value/cost analysis. If your model still says go for it, then do it.
I think so often part of the problem is the GM has different incentives than the team. A rookie QB might be a great way to make your bosses a little more patient, but it's not necessarily best for the team.
I think so often part of the problem is the GM has different incentives than the team. A rookie QB might be a great way to make your bosses a little more patient, but it's not necessarily best for the team.
- Joined
- Jan 6, 2013
- Messages
- 97,478
- Likes
- 176,995
Dynasties and consistent franchises have one shared theme. They identified their franchise QB and built around him. I’m not going to insult the process you used to come up with your percentages. I simply don’t put much stock in it. What’s the Patriots “fail rate” before and after Tom Brady? You swing until you score. Settling for Mac Jones may turn out as well as settling for Jalen Hurts but “fail rate” seems arbitrary. In any case, my original point was in response to your original point that trading up for a QB “never works”. I feel the same about declarative statements and their success rates.
- Joined
- Mar 11, 2009
- Messages
- 80,931
- Likes
- 47,272
There have only been 4 dynasties in the SB era. It's too lofty of a goal to be the priority that you're gambling on, IMO, and it's kinda funny to look at it that way since Aikman and Bradshaw are two of the QB's. You'd be happy with a great QB, so make that the goal.
Who is the new Tom Brady the Patriots were supposed to have drafted instead of settling for Mac? You saying they should have paid whatever ridiculous price the Jags would have wanted for Trevor Lawrence? I'm not even sure the pick was available at all. Mac performed better than the other 3* ahead of him so far, so not sure what your point is.
The move for the Pats was probably trading back. They got Zappe the next year, and he seems just as good.
*but give me Fields right now with what they're building around him for next year.
Who is the new Tom Brady the Patriots were supposed to have drafted instead of settling for Mac? You saying they should have paid whatever ridiculous price the Jags would have wanted for Trevor Lawrence? I'm not even sure the pick was available at all. Mac performed better than the other 3* ahead of him so far, so not sure what your point is.
The move for the Pats was probably trading back. They got Zappe the next year, and he seems just as good.
*but give me Fields right now with what they're building around him for next year.
- Joined
- Jan 6, 2013
- Messages
- 97,478
- Likes
- 176,995
Dynasties OR consistent winning franchises. Packers, Steelers, 49ers, Cowboys and Patriots were confirmed dynasties…that’s five. Just short (maybe) are the Redskins, more recent Steelers, Broncos, Colts, Ravens and Chiefs. All identified their franchise QBs and built around them…even the Ravens with Flacco to a lesser extent.
Who were they going to trade DOWN for? Next QB selected was Kyle Trask (winner), then Kellen Mond (out of league), Davis Mills, Ian Book and Sam Ehlinger. With a competent OC, the Pats made the playoffs with Jones and he made the Pro Bowl. Under a glorified DC he regressed and you have Zappe as good. 😏 Belichick played the draft as low as possible and throw them on the field with Jarrett Stidham after Cam Newton proved how done he was…didn’t work. There’s no one way to get your franchise QB, but the odds are highest drafting them in the first round. Hurts emerged this season after being a second day pick, but Mahomes, Burrow and Allen have proven how wiser it is to see it and get it while it’s gettable. If Justin Fields ends up not being the guy in Chicago, it was still well worth the swing. Cuz Nick Foles and Nathan Peterman are available for an alternative…for good reason.
Who were they going to trade DOWN for? Next QB selected was Kyle Trask (winner), then Kellen Mond (out of league), Davis Mills, Ian Book and Sam Ehlinger. With a competent OC, the Pats made the playoffs with Jones and he made the Pro Bowl. Under a glorified DC he regressed and you have Zappe as good. 😏 Belichick played the draft as low as possible and throw them on the field with Jarrett Stidham after Cam Newton proved how done he was…didn’t work. There’s no one way to get your franchise QB, but the odds are highest drafting them in the first round. Hurts emerged this season after being a second day pick, but Mahomes, Burrow and Allen have proven how wiser it is to see it and get it while it’s gettable. If Justin Fields ends up not being the guy in Chicago, it was still well worth the swing. Cuz Nick Foles and Nathan Peterman are available for an alternative…for good reason.
- Joined
- Mar 11, 2009
- Messages
- 80,931
- Likes
- 47,272
Yeah, I figured we'd see that the same way.
I'm not saying trade down for a QB. I'm saying take the best non-QB available. They could've kept the pick and done that, but looking at the next handful of picks the results weren't great. I'm just talking with the benefit of hindsight and saying trade back.
It sounds nice to say "roll the dice because we might find our franchise guy" but the franchise guys that make a difference are so hard to find. Aaron Rodgers fell in the draft. Tom Brady was at the end of the draft. Favre wasn't a 1st rounder. Russell Wilson was what 3rd round? They're not good at finding these guys. You can find a Flacco, but you're not winning a SB unless you nail a bunch of moves and Ed Reed and Ray Lewis stay really good into old age and then you get really fkn lucky in the playoffs. It worked but I feel gross counting it as a win for trading up. I will, but it's gross.
1st round QB's: the last 33 years, just 3 of the 1st QB's taken off the board have won a SB. The same is true of the 2nd QB to come off the board. This is really hard.
I'm not saying trade down for a QB. I'm saying take the best non-QB available. They could've kept the pick and done that, but looking at the next handful of picks the results weren't great. I'm just talking with the benefit of hindsight and saying trade back.
It sounds nice to say "roll the dice because we might find our franchise guy" but the franchise guys that make a difference are so hard to find. Aaron Rodgers fell in the draft. Tom Brady was at the end of the draft. Favre wasn't a 1st rounder. Russell Wilson was what 3rd round? They're not good at finding these guys. You can find a Flacco, but you're not winning a SB unless you nail a bunch of moves and Ed Reed and Ray Lewis stay really good into old age and then you get really fkn lucky in the playoffs. It worked but I feel gross counting it as a win for trading up. I will, but it's gross.
1st round QB's: the last 33 years, just 3 of the 1st QB's taken off the board have won a SB. The same is true of the 2nd QB to come off the board. This is really hard.
- Joined
- Jan 6, 2013
- Messages
- 97,478
- Likes
- 176,995
Patriots weren’t looking for a franchise QB when Tom Brady was drafted…Drew Bledsoe was being resigned for just such a purpose. So ending up with a franchise QB via a throw-a-way pick is dealing from a position of strength. Belichick was building a contributing SB roster because the vital position was seemingly covered. Different levels of urgency affects different drafting strategy. The Bill Walsh 49ers built their dynasty AFTER Joe Montana was established as the starting QB. Jimmy Johnson Cowboys started day one with Troy Aikman. Jimmy masterfully traded up and down and side to side…with an ace in his back pocket. Dating back to Bart Starr (prolly before), the winners built their teams after they solved their franchise QB puzzle. And one-offs like Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson are proven outliers. You win the occasional epic SB team with a Bears, Ravens or Bucs defense…then you go away.
VN Store
