2016 Election Thread Part Deux

#6,827
#6,827
marcusluvsvols said:
If trump doesnt win, we need another landslide shift to the right in the legislative branch, enough to tie her hands completely and impeach her when she inevitably oversteps her authority.
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Perhaps the biggest thing that never ceases to amaze me about you Trump true believers is your persistent decrying of Obama's and Hillary's "authoritarianism" while you support, unconditionally, the most authoritarian major party candidate in our nation's history. In fact, the only amendment I have any confidence that Trump supports is the 2nd, and that only because he knows his base.

On a related note, this election has helped me to realize that, for roughly half our posters, the only part of the Constitution that really matters to them is the 2nd, as long as all the others - like the separation clause - are prohibited in such a way as to confirm their own worldview.
 
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#6,828
#6,828
Septic said:
I get it. A record number of voters VOTED against the anti establishment candidate and bucked who the RNC "wanted".

The VOTERS made their bed. Don't blame the bed because you made it with poop on the sheets.
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Another important lesson I've gained from this election, in addition to the fact that many Americans care nothing for the Constitution other than what it personally benefits them and/or their worldview, is the following:

The establishment, despite its excesses and its corruption, is essentially moderate. It is evil, but it is tolerable. It is a genius evil, simply because it is so tolerable.

The people, despite their good intentions and their desires for justice, are essentially fanatics and loons. The people are not tolerable. The people are an evil without genius or subterfuge. The people's evil is just pure and unadulterated.
 
#6,829
#6,829
If this keeps up, I think the Senate should go ahead and confirm Garland. He is much better than anyone HRC will put up, especially with a blue Senate.
 
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#6,835
#6,835
lawgator1 said:
This was one of them.

Forbes Welcome
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Did you even read this article? He was getting the credit before they implemented income restrictions. It was not applied for after that but still received. That's government employees for you.

The same article saying he paid $77,000 in property taxes on ONE of his homes and he makes less than 500k a year? I'd like to know where they found that "accountant". Maybe he played one on Law and Order one time?
 
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#6,836
#6,836
SpaceCoastVol said:
Hey at least we own up to things.Of course I'm betting the Russkies signed DWS's name to all those emails.

You still have not a clue.
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Blaming the party isn't owning jack **** dude. Nobody put a gun to anyone's head to vote for Trump, and if you think they had no choice but to vote for him, then you really need to stop telling people they "have not a clue".
 
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#6,837
#6,837
“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” — Albert Einstein.

Describes the Obama-Clinton ticket.
 
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#6,838
#6,838
volprof said:
Another important lesson I've gained from this election, in addition to the fact that many Americans care nothing for the Constitution other than what it personally benefits them and/or their worldview, is the following:

The establishment, despite its excesses and its corruption, is essentially moderate. It is evil, but it is tolerable. It is a genius evil, simply because it is so tolerable.

The people, despite their good intentions and their desires for justice, are essentially fanatics and loons. The people are not tolerable. The people are an evil without genius or subterfuge. The people's evil is just pure and unadulterated.
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Ok Marie Antoinette
 
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#6,839
#6,839
Larry Sabato's Electoral College Map as of today.

Today we add one further alteration: We are moving Colorado from Leans Democratic to Likely Democratic. This also does not affect the Electoral College total, though it does push a competitive state further toward Clinton. Public and private polling, plus our own survey of key Democrats, Republicans, and independent journalists suggests that the GOP is not very competitive in Colorado this year. That includes the Senate race too, which we are moving from Likely Democratic to Safe Democratic. Sen. Michael Bennet (D), a very close winner in 2010, should be able to run ahead of Clinton against an underfunded Republican opponent, El Paso County Commissioner Darryl Glenn, who national Republicans appear to have written off.So look at the big picture. The Crystal Ball has been an island of stability in a chaotic, broiling sea. How can that be? Haven’t we been paying attention to the considerable shifts back and forth over the last month? Don’t we read the polls and other sites’ projections, which bounce up and down from day to day like yo-yos?
We do indeed closely follow the polls — or rather polling averages — and we appreciate the very fine work done by others in calibrating the impact of each new development on the campaign trail.

But our eyes are firmly fixed on November. In essence, we care about only one thing, the big picture: Who’s going to be elected?

You might ask: What about the wild swings in polling we observe with regularity, most recently after each convention? Some persuasive research has argued that it is explained by variability in the survey response rates of Democrats and Republicans. (See Andrew Gelman, et al., “The Mythical Swing Voter”). That is, short-term swings in candidate preference are caused mainly if not exclusively by variability in partisan response rates. Even small changes in response rates among Democrats and Republicans can produce sizable shifts in candidate support, given the very low overall response rates in most polls.

In our view, it is much more fruitful to focus on the electoral fundamentals and fixed elements of politics that predetermine most votes, especially partisanship, demographics, and strong forces shaping the political landscape. Polarization in this hyper-partisan era means that practically nine of 10 voters are committed, and the unknown is whether they can be motivated to cast a ballot. Presidential job approval, the state of the economy, war and peace, and a few other items reinforce partisanship and turnout, and influence the few truly swingable votes among hard independents.

This is especially true when the choices are as well-known as Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. It’s not just their nearly universal name identification; most voters have strong opinions about both, and it is very difficult — even with a four-day infomercial like a national convention — to change basic attitudes about these candidates’ strengths and weaknesses.

Are there complications? Naturally. While we suspect support for the Libertarians and Greens will diminish as Election Day approaches, we cannot know this for certain. It is at least possible that the Clinton-Trump balance will be upset by Gary Johnson and/or Jill Stein. We’ll keep watching, especially in the unlikely circumstance that Johnson makes it into the fall debates (he’ll need to be averaging 15% in several national polls to be included, and right now he’s generally in the high single digits).

Whether Johnson is present or not, the debates always offer an opportunity for one candidate to shine or another to make a costly gaffe, though here’s where intense partisanship matters again. Voters can easily declare one candidate the debate winner but cling to their preference for the other contender. There is also enough time from the end of the last debate (Oct. 19) to the election (Nov. 8) for lingering debate effects to vanish.

We certainly aren’t denying that certain events could upend all predictions. A surprise recession (few if any predicted the September 2008 economic collapse, even a couple of months’ out) or terrible instances of domestic terrorism in the fall might cause just enough voters to throw up their hands and say, “Enough. We need a change even if we don’t much like the change!”

It’s essential to note that the love-hate feelings for Trump and Clinton are eye-popping, and this unusual factor may distort expectations. Trump in particular is such an outlier or aberration that many standard election models by political scientists may not be able to project the election results as well as they usually do.

Trump supporters turn this around and insist that many live-interviewer poll respondents are not admitting their preference for the GOP nominee because it is socially undesirable to be for Trump (the so-called “shy Tory effect” that is well documented in the United Kingdom). Maybe this is happening, though so far we see little difference between live-phone surveys, where a few Trump backers might hesitate to tell an interviewer who they support, and online polls, which don’t require the respondent to actually talk to someone when revealing their views.

The Crystal Ball will continue to gather as much data as possible about every state, and we constantly question our assumptions, with your help. We’ll be surprised if we don’t flip the ratings for at least a few states before November. We doubt very much the 2016 map will be a duplicate of 2012’s, but it is unclear which handful might choose a new color. Let’s not forget about NE-2 and ME-2, either, individual congressional district electoral votes that could vote differently from their states. The Nebraska district, which Barack Obama carried in 2008 but not 2012, is due some special scrutiny. And Maine’s expansive northern district — the biggest by size east of the Mississippi — is a dark horse Trump target.

The news media are obsessed with daily, or hourly, “game changers.” That is understandable, since their businesses depend on “breaking news” eyeballs and clicks from people convinced that absolutely everything matters.

The Crystal Ball is of the opposite view. Most things really don’t matter, or they just reinforce the fundamentals and partisanship already in place. And that, dear readers, is why you keep on seeing variations of the same old map on our site. We’re not always a one-note samba, yet sometimes it’s the best song to sing, especially if Frank Sinatra recorded it.

Maybe our map will change drastically, but at this early August writing, we’re not betting on it.
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#6,840
#6,840
AirVol said:
“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” — Albert Einstein.

Describes the Obama-Clinton ticket.
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Says the guy who couldn't muster up the attention span to watch a Libertarian debate because they were using too many big words.
 
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#6,844
#6,844
Well, Trump has his name out in the news enough. I'd bet he's about to dial it back a bit and get serious again.
 
#6,845
#6,845
volprof said:
Perhaps the biggest thing that never ceases to amaze me about you Trump true believers is your persistent decrying of Obama's and Hillary's "authoritarianism" while you support, unconditionally, the most authoritarian major party candidate in our nation's history. In fact, the only amendment I have any confidence that Trump supports is the 2nd, and that only because he knows his base.

On a related note, this election has helped me to realize that, for roughly half our posters, the only part of the Constitution that really matters to them is the 2nd, as long as all the others - like the separation clause - are prohibited in such a way as to confirm their own worldview.
Click to expand...

You implying that i am a trump true believer is ignorant. I thought you were just drunk as you insulted about half the forum yesterday...are you still piss drunk or did you just quit taking your meds?
 
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