1st QB Drafted_Best QB in Class

[SNAFU]

I thought this was interesting. With 25 years of data to answer this one question: How often does the first quarterback drafted become the best in that class?

Over the past 25 years, the first quarterback drafted has become the best pro 40 percent of the time. Starting in 2000, when Chad Pennington (No. 18) was picked well before Tom Brady (No. 199), only 10 times did the first quarterback drafted become the best passer in their class.

Year	First QB Drafted	Best QB
2024	Caleb Williams	Jayden Daniels
2023	Bryce Young	CJ Stroud
2022	Kenny Pickett	Brock Purdy
2021	Trevor Lawrence	Trevor Lawrence
2020	Joe Burrow	Joe Burrow
2019	Kyler Murray	Kyler Murray
2018	Baker Mayfield	Josh Allen / Lamar Jackson
2017	Mitchell Trubisky	Patrick Mahomes
2016	Jared Goff	Dak Prescott
2015	Jameis Winston	Jameis Winston
2014	Blake Bortles	Derek Carr
2013	EJ Manuel	Geno Smith

The most painful for their respective fanbases being:
-2017’s Mitch Trubisky (QB1 drafted No. 2) over Patrick Mahomes (QB2, drafted No. 10),
-2018’s Baker Mayfield (No. 1) over both Josh Allen (QB3, drafted No. 7) and Lamar Jackson (QB5, drafted No. 32), and…
-2005’s Alex Smith (No. 1) over Aaron Rodgers (No. 24).

2012	Andrew Luck	Andrew Luck
2011	Cam Newton	Cam Newton
2010	Sam Bradford	Sam Bradford
2009	Matthew Stafford	Matthew Stafford
2008	Matt Ryan	Matt Ryan
2007	JaMarcus Russell	Trent Edwards
2006	Vince Young	Jay Cutler
2005	Alex Smith	Aaron Rodgers
2004	Eli Manning	Tie / Ben Roethlisberger
2003	Carson Palmer	Carson Palmer
2002	David Carr	David Garrard
2001	Michael Vick	Drew Brees
2000	Chad Pennington	Tom Brady

The Athletic

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

Is Dak actually better than Goff?

 

[YankeeVol]

Is Dak actually better than Goff?

No

 

[Go aeiou]

Can't believe Levis isn't on "The Best" list.

 

[n_huffhines]

Is Dak actually better than Goff?

I would say he has more talent. Goff has had two of the greatest minds in the NFL to teach him, and he certainly looks better right now, but Detroit O is stacked.

 

[05_never_again]

It's almost like nobody knows what they are doing drafting QBs.

Trubisky over Mahomes is the definition of painful, but that's only in hindsight. I don't remember anybody saying in 2017 that Mahomes was the best QB in the draft; at the highest they had him second best behind Trubisky. I think some people liked Watson ahead of Mahomes.

 

[zjcvols]

It's almost like nobody knows what they are doing drafting QBs.

Trubisky over Mahomes is the definition of painful, but that's only in hindsight. I don't remember anybody saying in 2017 that Mahomes was the best QB in the draft; at the highest they had him second best behind Trubisky. I think some people liked Watson ahead of Mahomes.

I can understand why they didn't take Mahomes at 2. Mahomes had so many questions coming out and was so raw.

I still do not understand (assuming that teams didn't have some sort of inkling of Watson's personal problems at the time, which maybe caused the drop) how Watson was not clearly QB1 that draft.

 

[05_never_again]

I can understand why they didn't take Mahomes at 2. Mahomes had so many questions coming out and was so raw.

I still do not understand (assuming that teams didn't have some sort of inkling of Watson's personal problems at the time, which maybe caused the drop) how Watson was not clearly QB1 that draft.

I think were were some concerns about Watson's accuracy and the offense that he played in not being conducive to the NFL (similar to Mahomes), and that Trubisky was the "safer" pick because he was the more polished passer. Now most NFL teams have principles of those offenses that they run pretty frequently, lol

I seem to remember people saying that they thought KC and Houston both reached for their QBs. Alex Smith was coming off a good season (and had a career year during Mahomes's rookie year) and people were like "KC doesn't even need a QB." People were kind of skeptical of Trubisky too although a lot of that might have been purely because Chicago drafted him.

 

[YankeeVol]

I think were were some concerns about Watson's accuracy and the offense that he played in not being conducive to the NFL (similar to Mahomes), and that Trubisky was the "safer" pick because he was the more polished passer. Now most NFL teams have principles of those offenses that they run pretty frequently, lol

I seem to remember people saying that they thought KC and Houston both reached for their QBs. Alex Smith was coming off a good season (and had a career year during Mahomes's rookie year) and people were like "KC doesn't even need a QB." People were kind of skeptical of Trubisky too although a lot of that might have been purely because Chicago drafted him.

Trubisky fell under the "starts" number that "matters." He only started 13 games.

He was a HUGE reach at 2, but it is Chicago.