'17' TN ATH Tee Higgins (Clemson commit)

#7,626
#7,626
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Now that's a lie. I never said recruiting rankings don't matter. I just said they are not the end all be all. If they were the end all be all, I would be picking Auburn outright to beat Clemson without the home-field advantage and the motivational angle.

I like Auburn in this game not just because on paper they have as much if not more talent than Clemson. But because the game is at Jordan-Hare. Its the season opener. And they will be more motivated than Clemson.

If the game was at Clemson. And if Auburn went 9-4 last year instead of 7-6. And if Clemson had been beaten by Oklahoma in the semis rather than pushing Alabama to the brink and getting all this off-season hype, I would pick Clemson to win. Maybe even in a blowout.

I like Auburn in this game because all the factors are in their favor. They're at home. They have no pressure. Everyone expects them to get blown out. Those are the type of games I like to pick the underdog. Especially when the underdog is talented according to the recruiting rankings (which once again are not the end all be all).
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This makes no sense. But par for the course D4H.
 
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#7,628
#7,628
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
No. You're the one going blindly off what Clemson did last year.

Just think back to this time LAST YEAR. Ohio State was the unanimous #1. They were an unbeatable juggernaut that was filled to the brim with NFL prospects. They had a super easy schedule and everyone was picking them to roll through it with ease. Why did people give them this amount of praise? Because of what they did the previous season.

What happened once the new season started? Ohio State struggled to beat the likes of Northern Illinois and Indiana. They lost at home to a Michigan State team that was starting its backup QB and would eventually get destroyed 38-0 against Alabama.

College kids are fickle. You pat them on the back all summer, they don't work as hard as the guys who get kicked in the butt all summer. Complacency is a big deal with 18-21 year old kids. Its the reason winning back to back titles is so rare even if the same cast returns the following year.

I agree with you Auburn has TONS of question marks. Clemson COULD annihilate them Saturday night. I personally think history is on the side of Auburn at least keeping it close. They'll be at home. They are close enough in terms of talent that they won't be easily outclassed. Plus they have all the motivation in the world while Clemson has had nothing but praise this off-season as if they won the national title.

College football surprises us every year. Don't be shocked by Auburn winning this week.
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You make a lot of good points that I agree with, but I'm not saying that Clemson will win in a blowout without a doubt solely based on last year though. I'm just drawing a conclusion using last season as a barometer and combining that with other variables that have changed for each team in the offseason like Clemson regaining their star WR in addition to returning nearly their entire offense, and Auburn having to replace nearly every offensive skill-position starter.

Clemson isn't unbeatable. No one is. And teams jump out of nowhere every year like Florida did last year. But that is just hard to predict, and that is all we are doing here, making predictions. I'm just saying mine are based on what we know and can tangibly measure, even if it is based on old information (how the teams performed throughout last year, plus what they added/subtracted in proven players). Your theory seems to be based on immeasurable qualities (potential complaceny and poor attitude of Clemson, and the determination of an "underachieving" Auburn team). Though good points, they aren't quantifiable and can't really be used to measure probability of winning.

Will I be surprised if Auburn wins? Yes, because I think Clemson has more proven talent and experience, and in an early season game, that can be a huge advantage. If this game were in Novemeber, I'd maybe feel different because we'd know more about both teams.
 
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#7,629
#7,629
Clemson schedule was very favorable for them last year. 5 of their first 6 were home games. Their road game was at Louisville, and they got out of their with a 3 point victory. If Auburn shows up with a good game plan, they have a good chance IMO.
 
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#7,634
#7,634
cncchris33 said:
Probably not (depending on your definition of close), but UGA has more returning offensive talent than Auburn does and more time to grow as a team before they face Tennessee than Auburn does before they face Clemson. Injuries will likely habe taken a toll by early October whereas Clemson and Auburn should be near full health in the opening game. So, it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison, but I can see what you're driving at.

I'll say this, I expect Clemson to beat Auburn worse than Tennessee will beat Georgia, whatever the margin.
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Gotcha, I felt like those two games were somewhat similar.

To be clear I think Clemson will win by 2+ touchdowns. Auburn has too many issues and playing Clemson the first game of the season will expose those issues.
 
#7,637
#7,637
cncchris33 said:
You make a lot of good points that I agree with, but I'm not saying that Clemson will win in a blowout without a doubt solely based on last year though. I'm just drawing a conclusion using last season as a barometer and combining that with other variables that have changed for each team in the offseason like Clemson regaining their star WR in addition to returning nearly their entire offense, and Auburn having to replace nearly every offensive skill-position starter.

Clemson isn't unbeatable. No one is. And teams jump out of nowhere every year like Florida did last year. But that is just hard to predict, and that is all we are doing here, making predictions. I'm just saying mine are based on what we know and can tangibly measure, even if it is based on old information (how the teams performed throughout last year, plus what they added/subtracted in proven players). Your theory seems to be based on immeasurable qualities (potential complaceny and poor attitude of Clemson, and the determination of an "underachieving" Auburn team). Though good points, they aren't quantifiable and can't really be used to measure probability of winning.

Will I be surprised if Auburn wins? Yes, because I think Clemson has more proven talent and experience, and in an early season game, that can be a huge advantage. If this game were in Novemeber, I'd maybe feel different because we'd know more about both teams.
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Actually no. Those other things are part of my calculus but not the major reason.

The main reason I like Auburn to play Clemson close is because the game is at Jordan-Hare. Home field is the greater predictor of who will win or lose a game. More than anything else we could know a-priori about the game.

Home field advantage. That is the critical factor in this matchup. Especially when the talent level of the two teams is RELATIVELY close.
 
#7,639
#7,639
Dobbs 4 Heisman said:
Actually no. Those other things are part of my calculus but not the major reason.

The main reason I like Auburn to play Clemson close is because the game is at Jordan-Hare. Home field is the greater predictor of who will win or lose a game. More than anything else we could know a-priori about the game.

Home field advantage. That is the critical factor in this matchup. Especially when the talent level of the two teams is RELATIVELY close.
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I guess that's where we disagree. You seem to believe the talent is close, but the only place that says the talent is close is in recruiting rankings. Those mean nothing in comparison to actual on-field production. Actual on-field production suggests the talent differential isn't all that close, and the respective level of experience sure isn't.

IMO, you are putting way too much emphasis on home field advantage when the difference in experience and proven talent is grossly tilted in CU's favor.

We'll just have to agree to disagree because, IMO you put too much emphasis on things that I think are overrated and/or immeasureable and you discount the things that I think are most likely to to be predictive of the outcome like returning talent and experience. You obviously feel similarly about my perspective. We'll never come to an compromise if we can't even agree on how to measure it.
 
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#7,643
#7,643
Kristy* said:
Clemson schedule was very favorable for them last year. 5 of their first 6 were home games. Their road game was at Louisville, and they got out of their with a 3 point victory. If Auburn shows up with a good game plan, they have a good chance IMO.
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Would love to see AU beat them but for some reason Gus thought hiring Kevin Steele as his DC in a potential make or break year for him was a good idea. Clemson might hang 50+ on that Kevin Steele coached D. Could get ugly if AU can't score with them.
 
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