'17 IN QB Hunter Johnson (Former UT Commit 8/23/15) (Clemson commit)

[butchna]

what am I missing ?

We had this poster? Who wasn’t “Reformed”? :wink2:

 

[quadlee21]

We had this poster? Who wasn’t “Reformed”? :wink2:

 

[1974Vol]

Saw a stat the other day that said 33% of all blue chip QBs from 2015-2018 classes have transferred or are transferring due to being the odd man out or not starting at their current school. It’s becoming more common and I would bet that your 5% number is actually a lot more if success is just measured by starting for a full year. I bet a good chunk of that 33% starts at their next stop.

Many are transferring to lesser schools/conferences so probably a pretty high percentage are getting starting jobs. Two from Tennessee have done pretty well.

 

[Sleegro]

Saw a stat the other day that said 33% of all blue chip QBs from 2015-2018 classes have transferred or are transferring due to being the odd man out or not starting at their current school. It’s becoming more common and I would bet that your 5% number is actually a lot more if success is just measured by starting for a full year. I bet a good chunk of that 33% starts at their next stop.

Five-star quarterbacks are transferring at staggering rate across college football

Of the 16 five-star quarterbacks in the 247Sports Composite to earn a five-star rating since 2010, Johnson is the 10th to have transferred.

These are the best of the best coming out of high school at football’s most important position, but 62.5 percent of them have transferred away from their initial school at one point or another in their career.

According to a study done by Fox Sports, 46.9 percent of four- and five-star quarterbacks from 2011-14 transferred at least once in their career. Elite 11 quarterbacks, considered the top signal callers coming out of high school, transferred at a 52.6 percent rate from 2009-13.

Here is the referenced study by Fox Sports:

Why blue chip quarterback recruits are transferring at an alarming rate | FOX Sports

Top 50 QB recruits, 2011-14
Stars / Transferred / Started early* / Stayed anyway
4/5-star / 46.9 % / 33.3 % / 28.1 %
3-star / 52.9 % / 12.5 % / 33.7 %
TOTAL / 50 % / 22.5 % / 31 %

Unfortunately, just 22.5 percent of the Top 50 QBs start by their first or second seasons. Of the rest, only 40 percent stay for the remainder of their careers.

 

[jakez4ut]

Five-star quarterbacks are transferring at staggering rate across college football



Here is the referenced study by Fox Sports:

Why blue chip quarterback recruits are transferring at an alarming rate | FOX Sports

interesting stuff. and is primarily why i don't get hung up on QB recruiting. i mean yeah, i'd want as good a QB as we can get, but they're so hit and miss. hard to figure out which ones are which.

we went thru this back in the day with Manning and Stuart. couldn't believe both came here, and sure enough, Stuart wound up at aTm.

i like the idea of these kids feeding on the competition, but at some point, you have to wonder how much of this is stunting their development?

QB recruiting is tricky. and nothing is guaranteed, for the player or the program.

 

[Nash_Vol97]

Five-star quarterbacks are transferring at staggering rate across college football



Here is the referenced study by Fox Sports:

Why blue chip quarterback recruits are transferring at an alarming rate | FOX Sports

This was the study I saw. My numbers were off a bit from memory but still, Interesting stuff.

 

[peaygolf]

Jacksonville State lock

no....please no!:mf_surrender:

 

[Ulysees E. McGill]

interesting stuff. and is primarily why i don't get hung up on QB recruiting. i mean yeah, i'd want as good a QB as we can get, but they're so hit and miss. hard to figure out which ones are which.

we went thru this back in the day with Manning and Stuart. couldn't believe both came here, and sure enough, Stuart wound up at aTm.

i like the idea of these kids feeding on the competition, but at some point, you have to wonder how much of this is stunting their development?

QB recruiting is tricky. and nothing is guaranteed, for the player or the program.

I think it is impatience that is stunting them.

 

[Volgrad98]

Why do some in our fan base have such a hard on for other team's scraps? Name one QB who transferred from a school here recently (within the last 10 years) because they couldn't win the QB competition and was successful at the next school? The only one I can think of is Russel Wilson. That's one guy out of who knows how many have transferred.

I'm sure someone will correct me but Wilson was a grad transfer no? And I submit Cam Newton as my example. Technically, he wasnt able to win the QB job at UF.

 

[BowlBrother85]

interesting stuff. and is primarily why i don't get hung up on QB recruiting. i mean yeah, i'd want as good a QB as we can get, but they're so hit and miss. hard to figure out which ones are which.

we went thru this back in the day with Manning and Stuart. couldn't believe both came here, and sure enough, Stuart wound up at aTm.

i like the idea of these kids feeding on the competition, but at some point, you have to wonder how much of this is stunting their development?

QB recruiting is tricky. and nothing is guaranteed, for the player or the program.

Obviously, a much tougher evaluation and the experts get it wrong a lot when it comes to QB. While some guys like Jacob Eason lose out in the numbers game following an injury - poor evaluations like Max Browne and Ricky Town look like more of the norm.

 

[wtorange]

interesting stuff. and is primarily why i don't get hung up on QB recruiting. i mean yeah, i'd want as good a QB as we can get, but they're so hit and miss. hard to figure out which ones are which.

we went thru this back in the day with Manning and Stuart. couldn't believe both came here, and sure enough, Stuart wound up at aTm.

i like the idea of these kids feeding on the competition, but at some point, you have to wonder how much of this is stunting their development?

QB recruiting is tricky. and nothing is guaranteed, for the player or the program.

stewart was not a 5 star guy. There were only a few recruiting services and he was a 3 or 4 star depending on who you believed.

 

[wtorange]

Ryan Mallett. UM to Arky

had we hired Debord as OC Mallett would have followed him here. Fulmer took Clawson who most everybody wanted him to take and it didn't work out. Fulmer went outside the box and went with the WC offense guru and it more than like cost him his job.

 

[peaygolf]

interesting stuff. and is primarily why i don't get hung up on QB recruiting. i mean yeah, i'd want as good a QB as we can get, but they're so hit and miss. hard to figure out which ones are which.

we went thru this back in the day with Manning and Stuart. couldn't believe both came here, and sure enough, Stuart wound up at aTm.

i like the idea of these kids feeding on the competition, but at some point, you have to wonder how much of this is stunting their development?

QB recruiting is tricky. and nothing is guaranteed, for the player or the program.

Josh Booty was the #1 QB and overall in Manning's recruiting class. Think about that for a second. Orlando Pace was #2 overall.

Manning was #11.
Based on "Blue Chip illustrated"

If I remember...many thought Stewart was a better QB than Manning. Wow! They actually split time until game 7. People forget the Bama game. Stewarts only series was a 70 yrd TD drive.

 

[Sin City Vol]

The crazy part about all these kids transferring is they don’t learn from others. If I’m a blue chip QB and another school has 2 5 star kinda on the roster then understand the odds of you playing soon is not good. Unless you’re willing to sit pick another school

 

[BowlBrother85]

The crazy part about all these kids transferring is they don’t learn from others. If I’m a blue chip QB and another school has 2 5 star kinda on the roster then understand the odds of you playing soon is not good. Unless you’re willing to sit pick another school

Anybody remember David Cornwell from Norman, OK who picked Alabama over Tennessee in 2014? He was ranked by 247 as the #3 pro-style QB in the class. I'm not saying that he should have gone to Tennessee and played in Butch's system but going to Alabama pretty much guaranteed that he would end up transferring without ever starting a game. He did end up transferring to Nevada but has since left there as well... and his football career appears to be over now.

 

[billwilson]

had we hired Debord as OC Mallett would have followed him here. Fulmer took Clawson who most everybody wanted him to take and it didn't work out. Fulmer went outside the box and went with the WC offense guru and it more than like cost him his job.

No, not what cost him his job. He thought he could coast on the NC. Coaching is a job where everyone can see the results of your work...kinda like being president.

 

[OTR_Vol]

Obviously, a much tougher evaluation and the experts get it wrong a lot when it comes to QB. While some guys like Jacob Eason lose out in the numbers game following an injury - poor evaluations like Max Browne and Ricky Town look like more of the norm.

Also with the QB position, the scheme is hugely important to them. The transition from have to college and college to the NFL, you have a lot of "busts". I'm a firm believer that some of these so called busts could have been successful at the next level if they had been a better scheme fit.

 

[jakez4ut]

I think it is impatience that is stunting them.

To some degree yes. Still, it surprises me every time multiple 5* , all everything, QB's commit to the same program, especially in the same cycle. The math catches up to someone, sometime

 

[jakez4ut]

Obviously, a much tougher evaluation and the experts get it wrong a lot when it comes to QB. While some guys like Jacob Eason lose out in the numbers game following an injury - poor evaluations like Max Browne and Ricky Town look like more of the norm.

Agreed

 

[#Vol4Life1991]

Anybody remember David Cornwell from Norman, OK who picked Alabama over Tennessee in 2014? He was ranked by 247 as the #3 pro-style QB in the class. I'm not saying that he should have gone to Tennessee and played in Butch's system but going to Alabama pretty much guaranteed that he would end up transferring without ever starting a game. He did end up transferring to Nevada but has since left there as well... and his football career appears to be over now.

Yea I remember that.

 

[jakez4ut]

stewart was not a 5 star guy. There were only a few recruiting services and he was a 3 or 4 star depending on who you believed.

I just remember Stuart coming in with a lot of hype too. 24 years ago, safe to say recruiting services and player rankings in general were not what they are today.

 

[jakez4ut]

Josh Booty was the #1 QB and overall in Manning's recruiting class. Think about that for a second. Orlando Pace was #2 overall.

Manning was #11.
Based on "Blue Chip illustrated"

If I remember...many thought Stewart was a better QB than Manning. Wow! They actually split time until game 7. People forget the Bama game. Stewarts only series was a 70 yrd TD drive.

Ha! I was at that game, and manning and Stuart were in a full on competition most of the 94 season.

Yes, there were more than a fair share that thought Stuart was better...

 

[jakez4ut]

Also with the QB position, the scheme is hugely important to them. The transition from have to college and college to the NFL, you have a lot of "busts". I'm a firm believer that some of these so called busts could have been successful at the next level if they had been a better scheme fit.

Good point. Additionally most, if not all, of these 5* guys have designs on going to the NFL.

Most think that should be doable in 3 years.

The math doesn't work out if your 2-3 deep with these big time QBs.

 

[butchna]

stewart was not a 5 star guy. There were only a few recruiting services and he was a 3 or 4 star depending on who you believed.

They didn’t have the star rating system back then. Blue chip was the highest rating and he fell into that. Max Emfinger was the recruiting guru at that time and other football magazines generally followed his lead.

 

[butchna]

Ha! I was at that game, and manning and Stuart were in a full on competition most of the 94 season.

Yes, there were more than a fair share that thought Stuart was better...

Stewart