12 team playoff

[maryvillenative]

Go look at Mizzu 2024 schedule. It is as easy as an sec schedule could be

Coach Drink ain't the brightest bulb. Losing Schrader will make a HUGE difference in their '24 results. The only reason Drink signed Schrader was a big donor using leverage to make it happen.

 

[maryvillenative]

There will be many teams at 9-3 on the outside looking in.
Understand the networks want West coast, mid West and northern markets in.
My guess is 4 max...Better have 10 wins

When they see the ratings for next week's NC game they may re-think the markets they want in.

 

[Sea Ray]

Notre Dame will most likely make it too. Big Ten will have numbers. I doubt any conference will get more in than them

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

Okay ... I'll bite ....
SEC most likely gets 2 ... at least.
More likely it will be 3.
It would be a stretch to get 4.

Now, if they were taking the absolute best teams in the country ... you could make a case for 6, but that is never going to happen.
Why? Because of rankings! Rankings are based on perception of strength.
FSU was presumed to be a beast, but in fact they were, at best, the 14th best team!
The 9th best team (SEC's 3rd or 4th best team - Missouri) beat up on the darling of the Big Can't Count's 2nd best team!
The 21st best team (Tennessee) smoked the tires in running over the Big Ten runner up!

The Rules for the CFP in 2024 as envisioned by conference presidents and special interests:
1: Conference champions of the Little Sisters of Mercy Conference, Big 12 (Texas), Conference USA (Liberty), Mid-American (Miami OH), Mountain West Conference(Boise State), Sun Belt Conference (Troy), AA Conference (SMU) will all stake a conference title claims to a spot in the field.
2: I call it, the FSU Rule: If you go "undefeated," no matter who you play ... you 'earn' a spot in the CFP. (FSU)
3: The bigger you are the more you want. The Big Can't Count Rule: Will 'automatically' put three Big 18 teams in CFP. (OSU, Michigan, PSU)
4: Name Recognition Rule: This one is Notre Dame's benefactor.
5: Can't exclude them if they are in A Major Market rule: Somebody from the West Coast is getting in no matter what (Washington), that also covers the midwest area(Kansas State), that applies to the Texas/Oklahoma market (Oklahoma State).
6: SEC is to big not to get a token team: (Alabama)

That's already about 15 by my count ...

So, do we want the best 12 teams or not? Do we want to spread the wealth around or not?

According to this : How the 12-team College Football Playoff will work: Teams, schedule, bids
We would have had the following:
Michigan, Washington, Texas, Alabama
No. 12 Liberty at No. 5 Florida State
No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 6 Georgia
No. 10 Penn State at No. 7 Ohio State
No. 9 Missouri at No. 8 Oregon

But that is actually a farce!
Why? Because those rankings were based on 4 teams making the playoffs and voting happening towards that end.
I expect rankings to be much different next year!
You really think Liberty (23) and SMU (24) will be 'voted that low' when there are 12 slots available???
I have acreage for sale ... and I definitely need to talk with you.

 

[TheFlash1971]

SEC and BiGTen fans travel well. Clemson fans travel well. FSU not so much , even when they are good they always stick them close to Florida if they can .

 

[sami]

It’s not going to be as easy to make it in the playoff as some think. The guaranteed spot for a non power 5 school and conference championship game winners will lead to teams being left out that are ranked inside the top 10 some years. Guaranteeing spots prevents the actual 12 best and most deserving teams from getting in and leads to a watered down product.

As much as I've always been a proponent of rewarding conference champions, these Franken-conferences have zero traditional value anymore, so I am all in on just picking the 12 best teams, regardless of conference for this new playoff.

I'm a traditionalist at heart, but tradition is clearly dead for all intents and purposes, so let's stop pretending that conference titles mean anything any more. And they'll never do it because no change is ever made that in any way decreases revenue, but please do away with the conference championship games, which have no value other than making two teams play an extra game.

 

[VFL-82-JP]

[double post]

 

[VFL-82-JP]

[double post]

 

[VFL-82-JP]

I think to predict the future, we only need to look at the recent past.

There are 12 spots in the 2024+ CFP, but one of them goes to a G5 team. So that leaves 11 Power 5 slots.

Let's assume that the SEC, B10, B12, and ACC champions are usually, pretty much always somewhere in the top 11 teams as ranked by the final CFP poll of each year (I looked back; this is a near-100% safe bet).

So to figure out how many CFP-12 spots each conference can expect in the future, just count up how many they got ranked 1 to 11 in the final CFP rankings (not AP) over, say, the past 10 years.

I did that. And I counted the teams using their 2024 homes. So Oklahoma and Texas counted as SEC berths. USCw, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, etc., counted as B10. Cincinnati counted as B12. And so on.

Here's how it came out:

2023 top 11: SEC 5 ... B10 5 ... B12 0 ... ACC 1
2022 top 11: SEC 3 ... B10 4 ... B12 3 ... ACC 1
2021 top 11: SEC 3 ... B10 3 ... B12 4 ... ACC 0 ... ND 1
2020 top 11: SEC 5 ... B10 2 ... B12 2 ... ACC 1 ... ND 1
2019 top 11: SEC 4 ... B10 4 ... B12 2 ... ACC 1
2018 top 11: SEC 5 ... B10 3 ... B12 1 ... ACC 1 ... ND 1
2017 top 11: SEC 4 ... B10 5 ... B12 0 ... ACC 2
2016 top 11: SEC 2 ... B10 6 ... B12 1 ... ACC 2
2015 top 11: SEC 2 ... B10 4 ... B12 1 ... ACC 3 ... ND 1
2014 top 11: SEC 3 ... B10 4 ... B12 3 ... ACC 1

That's a lot of numbers, so let's come up with averages and hi/lows:

The SEC averaged 3.6 teams a year who might expect CFP invites. High was 5, low was 2.
The B10 averaged 4.0 teams per year, high of 6, low of 2.
The B12 averaged 1.6 teams/year, high of 4, low of 0.
The ACC earned 1.3 teams/year, high of 3, low of 0.
And Notre Dame at 0.4, should expect to make the playoffs a bit more than once every three years.

So 2 to 5 SEC teams each year, with 4 being the median number. An average year would see four SEC teams, four B10, two B12, one ACC, and one G5 team.

Go Vols!

 

[ETV]

Georgia. Alabama. Texas and Ole Miss. Tennessee and OU will be on the bubble.

 

[Vols1891]

Four. Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri, and Bama. No UGA next year,

Are you forgetting Texas and Oklahoma?

 

[FBtime]

Coach Drink ain't the brightest bulb. Losing Schrader will make a HUGE difference in their '24 results. The only reason Drink signed Schrader was a big donor using leverage to make it happen.

They landed Marcus Carroll from Georgia State and he is VERY good.

 

[Evet Vols]

Vegas has TN with their highest chances to win National Championship in a long time. Last time TN had odds this good according to Vegas was 2016 and 2005 (and all the years prior). i think making playoffs is a real possibility If they stay healthy, etc. Go Vols!

 

[ALLVOL 4LIFE]

I think that the amount of SEC and B1? team’s (behind Conference Champs) allowed in will depend on how the losses were played.

Losses to teams ranked above your ranking, how did you play the game? Blowout-you are out. Lose to a lesser ranked opponent-you are out.

The other conferences should be champs only. ACC could get 2, but better have a great resume.

Just my 2 cents which holds no water.

 

[DaddyChad]

Georgia, Bama, Ole Miss and LSU

There’s no way LSU is going anywhere if they don’t radically overhaul that defense. Swap them and Texas IMO. Tennessee will be on the bubble imo.

 

[RDU VOL#14]

There’s no way LSU is going anywhere if they don’t radically overhaul that defense. Swap them and Texas IMO. Tennessee will be on the bubble imo.

Well they fired almost the entire defensive staff this week so that’s a start.

 

[Skippy95]

Are you forgetting Texas and Oklahoma?

Oklahoma’s entire offensive line is gone. If you watched them play in the bowl game Arnold is going to be eaten alive by our defensive line.

Texas will not repeat. Ewers is a system QB with NFL weapons. He’s losing a bunch of them. I think Texas takes a step back next year like UGA. I think they’ll both be about 9-3.

The only reason I’m giving Missouri a chance is because of how easy their schedule is next year.

Final point - I firmly believe that Nico is going to have a RGIII like season next year, but with better weapons. I also think our defense will be top ten in the country. Tennessee is playing a different game that they have in the first three years under Heup.

 

[DeusExMachina]

My only thoughts on this are as follows: y'all thought Bama '22 was loud (Neyland actually set off seismometers).........



Just wait till we get a night game at Neyland against someone like Penn State in the playoffs. You'll be able to hear Neyland (and by extension, Knoxville) from Mars.

 

[GetYouSomeofThat]

I am hoping Sec gets 5 teams in most years…any Sec team that is 10-2 should be guaranteed entry along with possibility of a strong 9-3 team. For next year I’d say Uga, Texas, and Bama are prob in. Followed by Ole Miss, Vols, Mizzou, Lsu and Oklahoma for 1-2 spots.

I hope they only get one in, and it is the Big Orange

 

[maryvillenative]

They landed Marcus Carroll from Georgia State and he is VERY good.

View attachment 607279

Another Sunbelter like Drink, we'll see how his numbers translate in the SEC.

 

[Vols1891]

Oklahoma’s entire offensive line is gone. If you watched them play in the bowl game Arnold is going to be eaten alive by our defensive line.

Texas will not repeat. Ewers is a system QB with NFL weapons. He’s losing a bunch of them. I think Texas takes a step back next year like UGA. I think they’ll both be about 9-3.

The only reason I’m giving Missouri a chance is because of how easy their schedule is next year.

Final point - I firmly believe that Nico is going to have a RGIII like season next year, but with better weapons. I also think our defense will be top ten in the country. Tennessee is playing a different game that they have in the first three years under Heup.

I love the positive outlook; certainly hope you are correct!

 

[NEWDAYVOL]

The way the SEC is setup now. I think undefeated seasons will be even harder, I dare say seeing 10-2/9-3 may become a thing in the SEC fighting to get into the PO with B1G teams being undefeated or 1 loss. Guess we'll have to see how the committee weighs SoS and even that needs some adjustment other than rankings
One thing for sure is GA isn't going to have it easy in 24

It’s not going to be as easy to make it in the playoff as some think. The guaranteed spot for a non power 5 school and conference championship game winners will lead to teams being left out that are ranked inside the top 10 some years. Guaranteeing spots prevents the actual 12 best and most deserving teams from getting in and leads to a watered down product.

Exactly guys. More years than not we are going to be on the Bubble. We got fans on these boards saying..."Conference strength is irrelevant we'll just go 13-0 and or win the conference like Clemson did"...yeahhhhh....let's see how that works for us year in and year out in this conference. I hope we go 13-0 every year but 9/10 times we have a shot at the playoffs we will be on the Bubble. That's why we need the SEC doing well in bowls and in OOC to remain the premier league in college football. SOS will be what gets us in the playoffs most years, maybe not every year, but most years. For us...we want the SEC to assert itself far and above B1G...it greatly helps our playoff chances each year.

And I'm not belittling us...that goes for all SEC teams. Everyone Georgia, Alabama, everyone needs that same help (the SEC doing well)...to get into the playoffs with that 10-2/9-3 record. And don't tell me that an 11th seed 10-2 SEC team doesn't have a shot against a top 4 seed ACC, Big 12, and most of the B1G teams.

I'm not betting against a 10-2 11th Seed Vol team vs a 13-0 #2 Clemson or TCU...all these people saying the bottom seeds can't beet the top seeds. Whatever!! We just want to get in the playoffs...by 1st seed or 12th seed. Then anything can happen. 10-2 6-12 seed SEC teams are going to beat a ton of top 4 seeded undefeated teams from the ACC and Big 12 in years to come. Just get in and we can do damage.

 

[FBtime]

Another Sunbelter like Drink, we'll see how his numbers translate in the SEC.

Cody Schrader came from Div II Truman State so....

 

[hog88]

I love the positive outlook; certainly hope you are correct!

OK will not be that good next year. IDK about TX but we don't have them on the schedule so hopefully we find out in the SECCG.

 

[Tnman1]

Cody Schrader is done at Missouri so they will drop off. Ole Miss is still trending up, as well as Tennessee, it appears. Georgia will be there. Who knows what will happen with Saban and the gumps. I think LSU won't get it done with Brian Kelly.