They will generally produce more talent, but it isn't directly proportional at all.
Allow me to dork it up for a moment...
If you look at the three states you mentioned, it is inversely proportional. Based on Larry's Locker on this site (which catalogs BCS signees by state from 2002-2010) as well as 2009 Census projection numbers, the data are:
State...........Population.....BCS Signees
California......36,961,664..........1520
Texas...........24,782,302.........1790
Florida..........18,537,969.........1810
If the production were directly proportional, then the number of BCS signees per 1,000,000 citizens would be a fairly constant number. For these three states (CA, TX, and FL), those ratios are actually 41, 72, and 98. These are quite different, even for these high-producing states.
I've broken down the number of signees vs. state population by region in the following graph. Keep in mind, if it were directly proportional, then all slopes would be the same (the slopes are listed on the right-hand side - in front of the x in each equation - in the same order as the regions appear in the legend). Instead, you see high variability by region. Thus, it can easily be argued that while population is one factor and might appear to inflate the numbers of signees, there are very important regional differences that fly in the face of state populations.
View attachment 32131
Note that the southeast states have the highest number of signees per state population (highest slope) and New England has the lowest. No surprise, really. For example, MA is the same size as TN, but produced almost 4 times fewer signees over this period. Also note from the R2 values that some regions are more proportional than others.
Perhaps the most damning numbers are the breakdown of the ratio of signess per 1,000,000 citizens for the southeast/southern states. This is a great look at just how much of an uphill battle Tennessee faces with regard to talent - second to last just ahead of.... KENTUCKY.
State.......................Signees..........Population........Ratio*1E6
Florida........................1810..........18,537,969 .............98
Georgia........................932............9,829,211 .............95
Alabama...................... 440............4,708,708.............93
North Carolina...............405............9,380,884..............43
Louisiana......................356............4,492,076.............79
South Carolina...............326............4,561,242.............71
Mississippi.....................297............2,951,996............101
Tennessee....................258............6,296,254.............41
Kentucky......................162............4,314,113.............38
Arkansas......................143............2,889,450 ..............49
