11% Chance. New Bulletin Board Material

#76
#76
NannerPuddin said:
Call me an idiot but I'm less worried about this game than the UGA game. No idea why but my anxiety is lower than last week before that game. Hope I'm right.
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No you're not an idiot or would I call you one, but this game scares the hell out of me more than Bama, and I was wrong in the way I felt about UGA even though we helped them and shot ourselves in the foot AGAIN. We haven't faced a QB like Trevor yet and my concern is LB play, and the secondary. We'll see.
 
#77
#77
VFL-82-JP said:
Objectively, based on what we have seen to date, an 11% chance seems about right.

But here's the thing: we haven't yet played to our potential for an entire 60-minute game.

Team 120 can be scary good, like holy-carp-Batman good, if we figure out a way to do that.

We do that, and that 11% chance seems wildly pessimistic.

Fingers crossed our lads get it all wired up for some full 60-minute performances at the top of their game.

Go Vols!
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But seriously, I agree. The key for us will be playing to our potential for 4 quarters.
 
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#79
#79
NannerPuddin said:
Call me an idiot but I'm less worried about this game than the UGA game. No idea why but my anxiety is lower than last week before that game. Hope I'm right.
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I agree. I really like listening to the talking heads picking the Aggies to win. I think not being the favorite the next two weeks will take a little pressure off and we should see a much better first half.
 
#80
#80
We are just as good as the the aggies. They have a QB, we have a QB. They have a pass rush, we have a pass rush. They have have receivers, we have receivers. They have rushers, we have rushers. Both have coaches. Go out and play your game.
 
#82
#82
VFL-82-JP said:
Objectively, based on what we have seen to date, an 11% chance seems about right.

But here's the thing: we haven't yet played to our potential for an entire 60-minute game.

Team 120 can be scary good, like holy-carp-Batman good, if we figure out a way to do that.

We do that, and that 11% chance seems wildly pessimistic.

Fingers crossed our lads get it all wired up for some full 60-minute performances at the top of their game.

Go Vols!
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Praying they don't lay a goose egg.. We have the potential to be a national championship team. Nuf said.
 
#83
#83
Nationdom said:
What's your prediction for A&M?
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aTm is good.. But regardless, we have a good chance of being 6-0. Gonna be a tough game.. Just hope Kirkland can make it and be 100%.. Heck I would take 85% at this point.

I predict we win... But by a small margin..
 
#84
#84
Tennessee needs to come play angry.. We let Georgia dictate the flow of last week's game. Can't play on your heels half a game against this team, they'll run us out of the stadium...
 
#85
#85
Volador said:
Good article in ESPN.com about Vols today w/regards to last year vs this years performances. According to the Official football media Gods FPI Matrix, Team 120 has an 11% chance of beating both Aggies and Bama. Well gentlemen, I will take that bet and raise you!!

Tennessee Volunteers comebacks from low probability - Stats & Info- ESPN


If the Vols continue to win, they will remain high in that ranking and have a great chance to make the playoff. However, Tennessee has tough tests in the next two weeks when it travels to Texas A&M and hosts Alabama. FPI gives the Vols an 11 percent chance to win both of those games; both opponents are currently higher in FPI than Tennessee.

And FYI, here is an explanation of FPI and the current rankings: ESPN Football Power Index - 2016 - ESPN

Go Vols!!
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What are our odds to win THIS game? That's all I care about. We win that game and our odds to win the next game AND both games go up.
 
#86
#86
shoot, I'm all in to the very last second anyway...no worries mate...:hi:...:naughty:

GO VOLS!
 
#88
#88
I don't buy the 1 percent chance or the 0.1 I saw elsewhere. This general statistic is no doubt valid but well coached teams always have an advantage over poorly coached teams. It is clear the GA players had no idea how to defend this and our guys had it down. With about 10 players near the ball an only our guys knowing what they were trying to do, I would say out chances were more between 10-15 percent. I remember playing this as a kid. Somehow the same 1 or 2 guys always got the ball. Knowing how and desire got done.
 
#90
#90
81Orange said:
I don't buy the 1 percent chance or the 0.1 I saw elsewhere. This general statistic is no doubt valid but well coached teams always have an advantage over poorly coached teams. It is clear the GA players had no idea how to defend this and our guys had it down. With about 10 players near the ball an only our guys knowing what they were trying to do, I would say out chances were more between 10-15 percent. I remember playing this as a kid. Somehow the same 1 or 2 guys always got the ball. Knowing how and desire got done.
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More goes into the percentage than just the time the ball is in the air. The .1 percent chance was following the touchdown. We still had to recover and return the football to a point that we could get into position to do something. We still had to make sure we left time on the clock. I don't know if it should be more like .9% chance, but I'd bet that almost every single instance following the TD pass that we don't win.
 
#91
#91
A&M has been known to be shock and awe until October. I too was more worried about UGA.
 
#92
#92
Based on an article by the Tennessean, our win probability fell below 10% in 3 of our 5 games so far, so two games in which we are favored in the 30%s shouldn't be any cause for concern.
 
#93
#93
Cartervol said:
Tennessee needs to come play angry.. We let Georgia dictate the flow of last week's game. Can't play on your heels half a game against this team, they'll run us out of the stadium...
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So a lot of people are saying something along these lines, and I tend to agree, but at the same time, who says? After we let VT get up, did we not say, "better not do that to Florida, or they'll kill us!" After the Florida game, it was, "Better not do that on the road! Let the home team into the game that much from the get go and you're screwed!"

I agree that we should not intentionally go out and try to get down, but, at the same time, you think the players are gonna quit if trailing by a few scores early? Hell no! Furthermore, we should fine tune our narrative a little bit also. If I were a player reading this (highly unlikely), I would want the fan base to be a little more confident in their ability to manage even the toughest of situations.

But, yeah, let's try really hard to start better... :)
 
#94
#94
I feel that the key to this game AGAIN is winning the field position game. Can't give them short field and 30 yard scoring drives. We've done well for the most part in our first 5 games with that and we'll need that to continue Saturday.
 
#95
#95
ESPN's FPI is actually really good... and I agree with the 11% number based on past performance.

Every person on this board knows (or should know, rather) that this team has been underperforming in the first half of every game this season. If they continue this trend, then yes, they absolutely have an 11% chance at best of beating A&M and Alabama.

If they decide to play 60 minutes of football each of the next two weeks, that percentage raises exponentially.
 
#97
#97
livefaith said:
I'm not sure I follow your logic here. But, I think you're saying what I have heard erroneously repeated before. That is the idea that losing to East teams somehow effects your chances of the SECCG while losing to a west team does not.

Winning the East is based on ...
#1having the best in conference record.
#2 If you SEC record ties another East team, then the winner is the head to head matchup.
#3 In case of a 3way tie, then the highest ranked team goes to ATL.

All SEC games are equal in the record, whether west or east. Let's face it, only UT, UF, or UGA are making ATL. We have a two game lead at the moment over UF and a 3 game lead over UGA thanks to #1 our record, and #2 our head to head wins over both.

The ATm and UA games are huge. Lose both and win all other SEC games, with UF winning out, and the Gators go to ATL with a better SEC record. It's definitely on the table.
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The logic is simple: In order to reach the SECCG for UT, Sweeping the East is more important than beating Western foes and losing to Eastern ones because every SEC East Game W comes along with a tiebreaker, where the West Div games do not.

Sweep the East and lose both West Div games, and the ONLY way another team can rep the East is by winning out which (while possible) is far less likely given the strength of the West at the moment. Your argument would be a lot stronger for a West Div team.

Of course, all of this is moot now.
 
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