11% Chance. New Bulletin Board Material

#1
Volador

Volador

Orange you glad to be a Vol??
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#1
Good article in ESPN.com about Vols today w/regards to last year vs this years performances. According to the Official football media Gods FPI Matrix, Team 120 has an 11% chance of beating both Aggies and Bama. Well gentlemen, I will take that bet and raise you!!

Tennessee Volunteers comebacks from low probability - Stats & Info- ESPN


If the Vols continue to win, they will remain high in that ranking and have a great chance to make the playoff. However, Tennessee has tough tests in the next two weeks when it travels to Texas A&M and hosts Alabama. FPI gives the Vols an 11 percent chance to win both of those games; both opponents are currently higher in FPI than Tennessee.

And FYI, here is an explanation of FPI and the current rankings: ESPN Football Power Index - 2016 - ESPN

Go Vols!!
 
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#3
#3
Call me an idiot but I'm less worried about this game than the UGA game. No idea why but my anxiety is lower than last week before that game. Hope I'm right.
 
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#4
#4
Volador said:
Good article in ESPN.com about Vols today w/regards to last year vs this years performances. According to the Official football media Gods FPI Matrix, Team 120 has an 11% chance of beating both Aggies and Bama. Well gentlemen, I will take that bet and raise you!!

Tennessee Volunteers comebacks from low probability - Stats & Info- ESPN


If the Vols continue to win, they will remain high in that ranking and have a great chance to make the playoff. However, Tennessee has tough tests in the next two weeks when it travels to Texas A&M and hosts Alabama. FPI gives the Vols an 11 percent chance to win both of those games; both opponents are currently higher in FPI than Tennessee.

And FYI, here is an explanation of FPI and the current rankings: ESPN Football Power Index - 2016 - ESPN

Go Vols!!
Click to expand...

That's not all that bad. That means they are giving us a 35% chance in either game.
 
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#5
#5
We have an 11% chance to win both if we keep putting ourselves in three score holes, that I can support.

Love the excitement and love the fight, but if we put ourselves in that position against a damn good a&m team at Kyle Field .. not good.

And if we do that against Saban.. even worse.

THAT BEING SAID GO DAMN VOLS
 
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#6
#6
NannerPuddin said:
Call me an idiot but I'm less worried about this game than the UGA game. No idea why but my anxiety is lower than last week before that game. Hope I'm right.
Click to expand...

Because it doesn't really matter. Now that we beat UF and UGA we have the East locked up. If we win against Bama, win out, play and win in ATL, we go to the playoffs as a 12-1 SEC champion. Thus, this game doesn't really matter.
 
#8
#8
Neyland Law Vol said:
Because it doesn't really matter. Now that we beat UF and UGA we have the East locked up. If we win against Bama, win out, play and win in ATL, we go to the playoffs as a 12-1 SEC champion. Thus, this game doesn't really matter.
Click to expand...

True, but beating Texas A&M makes the Bama game not matter. Saturday is the more winnable game. Our backs are against the wall if we lose.

And let's be honest, the polls are itching to drop us. Lose this game by 10 points and I bet we drop 7-8 spots.
 
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#10
#10
NannerPuddin said:
Call me an idiot but I'm less worried about this game than the UGA game. No idea why but my anxiety is lower than last week before that game. Hope I'm right.
Click to expand...

Everybody seems to think the Aggies should be favored. But if you look at their games so far, I think we appear to match-up very well with them. Their most impressive win was the beat-down of Arkansas at Kyle Field. That's the only win they have vs. a team that is currently ranked. Their opening non-con overtime win vs. UCLA is looking a lot less impressive now, especially since the Pac 12 appears to be down.

Yes, we've struggled with consistency. But when we've been on, I don't think there are too many teams that have looked more dominant. I expect a close game and I think we have a very realistic chance of winning if we play well.
 
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#12
#12
Butch will tell these guys all week in practice that you have to be resilient and to work for that other 89%
 
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#13
#13
Texas A&M was probably the 4th scariest team on the schedule at the start of the year for me.

1st - Alabama
2nd - Georgia
3rd - Florida
4th - A&M

I know they are a talented team but they've started 5-0 3 straight years now only to fall apart the second half of the season the previous 2 years. They will implode Saturday and continue that trend.
 
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#15
#15
Hacksaw said:
Everybody seems to think the Aggies should be favored. But if you look at their games so far, I think we appear to match-up very well with them. Their most impressive win was the beat-down of Arkansas at Kyle Field. That's the only win they have vs. a team that is currently ranked. Their opening non-con overtime win vs. UCLA is looking a lot less impressive now, especially since the Pac 12 appears to be down.

Yes, we've struggled with consistency. But when we've been on, I don't think there are too many teams that have looked more dominant. I expect a close game and I think we have a very realistic chance of winning if we play well.
Click to expand...

Wasn't the Arkansas game at Jerry World?
 
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#16
#16
chatt-townVOL said:
True, but beating Texas A&M makes the Bama game not matter. Saturday is the more winnable game. Our backs are against the wall if we lose.

And let's be honest, the polls are itching to drop us. Lose this game by 10 points and I bet we drop 7-8 spots.
Click to expand...

There isn't a scenario in the entire world that would make the Bama game "not matter"
 
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#19
#19
Neyland Law Vol said:
Because it doesn't really matter. Now that we beat UF and UGA we have the East locked up. If we win against Bama, win out, play and win in ATL, we go to the playoffs as a 12-1 SEC champion. Thus, this game doesn't really matter.
Click to expand...

This is NOT THE CASE. These games DO matter in regards to who wins the SEC East. If we lose one more SEC game than Florida or Georgia, they could still win the tiebreaker to win the East.

One scenario is us losing to A&M and Bama (or 2 other SEC games for that matter) and Florida wins out in their SEC games, they would go to Atlanta instead of us.

In the past, we've been able to sneak in to SECCG after losing to Florida early and watching them lose a couple down the stretch.

Just don't count your chickens yet.
 
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#20
#20
UT can lose this game no question but for sure its going to be close and they will be in it until the end. On the other hand, I can see UT running away with this game.
 
#23
#23
The UCLA game got out of hand early on due to pressure on the UCLA Quarterback plus, even without pressure he looked really bad. He never got in any sort of rhythm and what little I've seen since he's not much better.

The Arky game was the same way and if I'm not mistaken Arky went for a TD early on 4th down and failed. After that they looked deflated.

Keeping Knight in check is key. He runs just enough to keep D honest and passes well enough to hurt a secondary not playing physical with receivers.
 
#24
#24
NannerPuddin said:
Call me an idiot but I'm less worried about this game than the UGA game. No idea why but my anxiety is lower than last week before that game. Hope I'm right.
Click to expand...

Right. Because this and/or the Bama game are the only SEC games we can lose and have it not affect our Championship hopes.

These games are far more important, believe it or not:

1. Mizzou
2. South Carolina
3. Vanderbilt
4. Kentucky
 
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#25
#25
bleuximus said:
This is NOT THE CASE. These games DO matter in regards to who wins the SEC East. If we lose one more SEC game than Florida or Georgia, they could still win the tiebreaker to win the East.

One scenario is us losing to A&M and Bama (or 2 other SEC games for that matter) and Florida wins out in their SEC games, they would go to Atlanta instead of us.

In the past, we've been able to sneak in to SECCG after losing to Florida early and watching them lose a couple down the stretch.

Just don't count your chickens yet.
Click to expand...

I'd prefer not to count on anybody losing games in order for us to get to Atlanta but I don't see Florida running the table on their next 4 games of LSU, ARK, Missou and Ga. In fact my guess is they lose 2 of those.

My nightmare scenario is beating A&M or Alabama only to see them beat us in Atl in December. I'd much rather see that scenario switched as we get our defensive stars back for that game.
 
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